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Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 28
Book Description
We develop and test a physically based semi-Lagrangian water body temperature model to apply climatological data and thermal pollution from river-based power plants to historical river flow data in order to better understand climate change impacts on surface water temperature and thermal power plant withdrawal allowances. The model is built for rapid assessment and use in Integrated Assessment Models. We first test the standalone model on a 190km river reach, the Delaware River, where we have detailed flow and temperature data. An R2 of 0.88 is obtained on hourly data for this initial test. Next, we integrate the standalone temperature model into a series of models -- rainfall-runoff model, water demand model, water resource management model, and power plant uptake and release model -- for the contiguous USA (CONUS), with about 19,000 segments total. With this system in place, we then validate the standalone water temperature model within the system for 16 river stations throughout the CONUS, where we have measured daily temperature data. The model performs reasonably well with a median R2 of 0.88. A variety of climate and emissions scenarios are then applied to the model to test regions of higher vulnerability to river temperature environmental violations, making use of output from two GCMs and six emissions scenarios focusing on projections out to 2050. We find that the two GCMs project significantly different impacts to water temperature, driven largely by the resulting changes in streamflow from the two models. We also find significantly different impacts on the withdrawal allowed by thermal power plants due to environmental regulations. Potential impacts on generation are between +3% and -4% by 2050 for the unconstrained emissions case and +3.5% to -2% for the stringent GHG mitigation policy (where 1% is equivalent to 32 TWh, or about 3 billion USD/year using 2005 electricity prices). We also find that once-through cooling plants are most vulnerable to climate change impacts, with summer impacts ranging from -0.8% to -6% for the unconstrained emissions case and +2.1% to -3.7% for the stringent GHG emissions case.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 28
Book Description
We develop and test a physically based semi-Lagrangian water body temperature model to apply climatological data and thermal pollution from river-based power plants to historical river flow data in order to better understand climate change impacts on surface water temperature and thermal power plant withdrawal allowances. The model is built for rapid assessment and use in Integrated Assessment Models. We first test the standalone model on a 190km river reach, the Delaware River, where we have detailed flow and temperature data. An R2 of 0.88 is obtained on hourly data for this initial test. Next, we integrate the standalone temperature model into a series of models -- rainfall-runoff model, water demand model, water resource management model, and power plant uptake and release model -- for the contiguous USA (CONUS), with about 19,000 segments total. With this system in place, we then validate the standalone water temperature model within the system for 16 river stations throughout the CONUS, where we have measured daily temperature data. The model performs reasonably well with a median R2 of 0.88. A variety of climate and emissions scenarios are then applied to the model to test regions of higher vulnerability to river temperature environmental violations, making use of output from two GCMs and six emissions scenarios focusing on projections out to 2050. We find that the two GCMs project significantly different impacts to water temperature, driven largely by the resulting changes in streamflow from the two models. We also find significantly different impacts on the withdrawal allowed by thermal power plants due to environmental regulations. Potential impacts on generation are between +3% and -4% by 2050 for the unconstrained emissions case and +3.5% to -2% for the stringent GHG mitigation policy (where 1% is equivalent to 32 TWh, or about 3 billion USD/year using 2005 electricity prices). We also find that once-through cooling plants are most vulnerable to climate change impacts, with summer impacts ranging from -0.8% to -6% for the unconstrained emissions case and +2.1% to -3.7% for the stringent GHG emissions case.
Author: Donald Rapp Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3540765875 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 408
Book Description
In this book Donald Rapp provides a balanced assessment of global warming, tending neither to the views of alarmists or nay-sayers. Rapp has the ability to move into a highly technical field, assimilate the content, organize the knowledge base and succinctly describe the field, its content, its unresolved issues and achievements. This is precisely what he does in this book in relation to global climate change. As such his approach is refreshingly different.
Author: Yifan Cheng Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 124
Book Description
Human activities, especially dam construction, greatly modify the response of river thermal regimes to climate change. Dams impound large water bodies, decrease surface to volume ratios, and increase water residence times. All of these changes affect the interaction between surface meteorology and river systems. During warm seasons, surface energy fluxes can only warm a reservoir’s top layer (epilimnion) while the bottom layer (hypolimnion) remains cold. As a result, the cold hypolimnetic releases greatly depress downstream river temperatures. Additionally, reservoir releases during cold seasons can increase downstream river temperatures. Thus far, most large-scale stream temperature studies have ignored seasonal thermal stratification and therefore underestimated the regulation impacts on downstream fluvial thermal regimes. In the papers that constitute this dissertation, I synthesized a physically-based model framework to simulate regulated river flow and temperature, explicitly considering the impacts of reservoir thermal stratification. This model framework laid the basis of this dissertation and was applied in all subsequent analyses. In Chapter 2, I applied this model framework in the southeastern United States and investigated the impacts of reservoir regulation and climate change on mean summer river temperature and cooling potentials, a metric designed to evaluate the compound impact of river flow and temperatures. Under climate change, summer river temperatures in the regulated rivers will remain colder compared to those in the unregulated rivers but under climate change the effect does not carry as far downstream. The impact of reservoir regulation on cooling potentials remains strong for rivers heavily influenced by thermal stratification, but under climate change higher river temperatures will decrease cooling potentials for all river segments. In Chapter 3, I examined extreme fluvial thermal events, i.e., high river temperatures, so as to facilitate risk management for regional aquatic ecosystem and power sectors. We introduced a standard characterization with three attributes, i.e., duration-intensity-severity, to quantify the climate change impacts on thermal extremes in a regulated river system. Thermal extremes will be greatly exacerbated by climate change. In the baseline (unregulated) scenarios, duration, intensity, and severity are projected to increase to 85.6 day/year (+77.4 day/year), 5.2 °C (+4.4°C), and 193.4 °C day/year (+187.9 °C·day/year), respectively, by the 2080s under RCP8.5, with values in parentheses indicating the changes relative to the historical, unregulated values. Even though reservoir mitigation impacts are projected to be stronger, only 12.2%, 19.7%, and 26.0% of duration, intensity, and severity by the 2080s under RCP8.5 can be mitigated by reservoir regulations. In Chapter 4, I projected potential fish distribution due to climate change in the highly regulated Tennessee River. By coupling the model framework for regulated river systems described in Chapter 2 with a species distribution model, I simulated fish presence probability for historic and future periods considering the effects of dams on flow, thermal regime, and reach connectivity. The number of stream segments that are environmentally suitable for an exotic and lucrative rainbow trout, a coldwater species, will greatly shrink under climate change. Only 4.4% of historically suitable streams will remain, mostly located at reservoir tailwaters. For endemic coolwater species, projected higher river temperature may facilitate their expansion, but it will be constrained due to the physical blockage of dams.
Author: Michele Zinzi Publisher: MDPI ISBN: 3038976369 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 350
Book Description
The combination of global warming and urban sprawl is the origin of the most hazardous climate change effect detected at urban level: Urban Heat Island, representing the urban overheating respect to the countryside surrounding the city. This book includes 18 papers representing the state of the art of detection, assessment mitigation and adaption to urban overheating. Advanced methods, strategies and technologies are here analyzed including relevant issues as: the role of urban materials and fabrics on urban climate and their potential mitigation, the impact of greenery and vegetation to reduce urban temperatures and improve the thermal comfort, the role the urban geometry in the air temperature rise, the use of satellite and ground data to assess and quantify the urban overheating and develop mitigation solutions, calculation methods and application to predict and assess mitigation scenarios. The outcomes of the book are thus relevant for a wide multidisciplinary audience, including: environmental scientists and engineers, architect and urban planners, policy makers and students.
Author: T. R. Oke Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1134951345 Category : Nature Languages : en Pages : 460
Book Description
Offers a concise description of atmospheric layers sensitively pitched for the non-meteorological specialist in a variety of disciplines: in geography, agriculture, forestry, ecology, engineering, environment and planning.
Author: U.S. Global Change Research Program Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 0521144078 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 193
Book Description
Summarizes the science of climate change and impacts on the United States, for the public and policymakers.
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309471699 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 207
Book Description
Climate change poses many challenges that affect society and the natural world. With these challenges, however, come opportunities to respond. By taking steps to adapt to and mitigate climate change, the risks to society and the impacts of continued climate change can be lessened. The National Climate Assessment, coordinated by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, is a mandated report intended to inform response decisions. Required to be developed every four years, these reports provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date evaluation of climate change impacts available for the United States, making them a unique and important climate change document. The draft Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA4) report reviewed here addresses a wide range of topics of high importance to the United States and society more broadly, extending from human health and community well-being, to the built environment, to businesses and economies, to ecosystems and natural resources. This report evaluates the draft NCA4 to determine if it meets the requirements of the federal mandate, whether it provides accurate information grounded in the scientific literature, and whether it effectively communicates climate science, impacts, and responses for general audiences including the public, decision makers, and other stakeholders.
Author: K.W. Hipel Publisher: Elsevier ISBN: 0080870368 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 1053
Book Description
This is a comprehensive presentation of the theory and practice of time series modelling of environmental systems. A variety of time series models are explained and illustrated, including ARMA (autoregressive-moving average), nonstationary, long memory, three families of seasonal, multiple input-single output, intervention and multivariate ARMA models. Other topics in environmetrics covered in this book include time series analysis in decision making, estimating missing observations, simulation, the Hurst phenomenon, forecasting experiments and causality. Professionals working in fields overlapping with environmetrics - such as water resources engineers, environmental scientists, hydrologists, geophysicists, geographers, earth scientists and planners - will find this book a valuable resource. Equally, environmetrics, systems scientists, economists, mechanical engineers, chemical engineers, and management scientists will find the time series methods presented in this book useful.
Author: US Global Change Research Program Publisher: Simon and Schuster ISBN: 1510726217 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 999
Book Description
As global climate change proliferates, so too do the health risks associated with the changing world around us. Called for in the President’s Climate Action Plan and put together by experts from eight different Federal agencies, The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health: A Scientific Assessment is a comprehensive report on these evolving health risks, including: Temperature-related death and illness Air quality deterioration Impacts of extreme events on human health Vector-borne diseases Climate impacts on water-related Illness Food safety, nutrition, and distribution Mental health and well-being This report summarizes scientific data in a concise and accessible fashion for the general public, providing executive summaries, key takeaways, and full-color diagrams and charts. Learn what health risks face you and your family as a result of global climate change and start preparing now with The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health.
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Author: Donald Rapp
Author: Yifan Cheng
Author: Michele Zinzi
Author: T. R. Oke
Author: U.S. Global Change Research Program
Author: John Monteith
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Author: K.W. Hipel
Author: US Global Change Research Program