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Author: Marc D. Weidenmier Publisher: ISBN: Category : United States Languages : en Pages : 44
Book Description
Historians have long wondered whether the Southern Confederacy had a realistic chance at winning the American Civil War. We provide some quantitative evidence on this question by introducing a new methodology for estimating the probability of winning a civil war or revolution based on decisions in financial markets. Using a unique dataset of Confederate gold bonds in Amsterdam, we apply this methodology to estimate the probability of a Southern victory from the summer of 1863 until the end of the war. Our results suggest that European investors gave the Confederacy approximately a 42 percent chance of victory prior to the battle of Gettysburg/Vicksburg. News of the severity of the two rebel defeats led to a sell-off in Confederate bonds. By the end of 1863, the probability of a Southern victory fell to about 15 percent. Confederate victory prospects generally decreased for the remainder of the war. The analysis also suggests that McClellan's possible election as U.S. President on a peace party platform as well as Confederate military victories in 1864 did little to reverse the market's assessment that the South would probably lose the Civil War.
Author: Marc D. Weidenmier Publisher: ISBN: Category : United States Languages : en Pages : 44
Book Description
Historians have long wondered whether the Southern Confederacy had a realistic chance at winning the American Civil War. We provide some quantitative evidence on this question by introducing a new methodology for estimating the probability of winning a civil war or revolution based on decisions in financial markets. Using a unique dataset of Confederate gold bonds in Amsterdam, we apply this methodology to estimate the probability of a Southern victory from the summer of 1863 until the end of the war. Our results suggest that European investors gave the Confederacy approximately a 42 percent chance of victory prior to the battle of Gettysburg/Vicksburg. News of the severity of the two rebel defeats led to a sell-off in Confederate bonds. By the end of 1863, the probability of a Southern victory fell to about 15 percent. Confederate victory prospects generally decreased for the remainder of the war. The analysis also suggests that McClellan's possible election as U.S. President on a peace party platform as well as Confederate military victories in 1864 did little to reverse the market's assessment that the South would probably lose the Civil War.
Author: Paul S Davies Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing ISBN: 1509970762 Category : Law Languages : en Pages : 406
Book Description
This book focuses on contemporary problems related to fraud and risk in commercial law. It has been said by some that we are in a 'golden age of fraud'. In part this has been caused by globalisation, technological changes and the financialisation of business. This has resulted in the creation of automated linkages with integrated supply chains and the creation of systemic risks, which have been exacerbated by new forms of intangible assets like tokens and their ease of movement. While regulation has ebbed and flowed given the desire of governments to generate economic growth, as well as the distrust of their coercive powers, the courts have sought to strike a balance between considerations such as commercial certainty and fairness. The book provides an analysis of key contemporary issues on the theme of fraud and risk in commercial law, including: technology and fraud, secondary liability and 'failure to prevent' economic crime, abuse of business entities, insolvency and creditor protection, injunctions and other orders, cross-border issues, the relationship between regulation and private law, and solutions for policy makers.
Author: Arie Arnon Publisher: Springer Nature ISBN: 3030413578 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 244
Book Description
This book provides a unique historical perspective on expectations in economic theory, and applications of expectations models in economic history. Based on papers presented at the 2017 Thomas Guggenheim Conference, it brings together the work of economists, historians of economics, and economic historians on issues and events concerning expectations in economics and economic history. The contributions address: (i) the history of expectations models; (ii) growth, expectations and political economy; (iii) controversies regarding expectations methods and models; (iv) expectations in theory and reality; and (v) expectations in economic history. The book opens with a lecture by Thomas Guggenheim Prize winner Duncan Foley on the evolution of expectations in modern economic thought. The remaining content is divided into two parts, the first of which focuses on the utilization of expectations in the “ancient” and “meso” periods of high theory, i.e., from Smithian to Keynesian approaches. The papers cover topics such as “modern” applications of expectations in both “Tobinesque-Phillips” and “Harrodian-Solowian” contexts, and the debate between Friedmanite and Keynesian approaches to expectation formation. In turn, the last part presents essays on the role of economic expectations in connection with historical events and contexts, ranging from the early 20th century to World War II, and on the application of expectations theory to hyperinflation and stabilization, taking Israel as a case study.
Author: David Winterton Publisher: Bloomsbury Publishing ISBN: 1782252959 Category : Law Languages : en Pages : 370
Book Description
The quantification of contractual money awards is a topic of both significant theoretical interest and immense practical importance. Recent debates have ranged from the availability of gain-based relief to the basis for principles of remoteness and mitigation. While these and other important issues, such as the recovery of damages for non-pecuniary loss, are touched upon, the book's principal objective is to challenge the conventional interpretation of the principle generally acknowledged to govern this area of the law, which Parke B famously laid down in Robinson v Harman. According to this conventional interpretation, the objective of all money awards given in accordance with the Robinson v Harman principle is simply to 'compensate' the promisee for the 'loss' that can be attributed to the promisor's failure to perform as promised. After challenging this orthodoxy, Dr Winterton proposes a new understanding of the Robinson v Harman principle, which draws an important distinction between money awards that substitute for the performance promised and money awards that aim to make good certain detrimental factual consequences that can be attributed to a promisor's breach. In exploring the significance of this distinction, the different principles underpinning the quantification and restriction of each kind of award are explored in addition to some important theoretical issues such as the effect that the occurrence of a breach has on the rights generated by contract formation. The book's unifying objective is to outline a coherent picture of the law of contractual money awards. It will be of interest to judges, practitioners and academics alike. Nominated for the 2018 St Petersburg International Legal Forum Private Law Prize!
Author: United States. Congress Publisher: ISBN: Category : Law Languages : en Pages : 1428
Book Description
The Congressional Record is the official record of the proceedings and debates of the United States Congress. It is published daily when Congress is in session. The Congressional Record began publication in 1873. Debates for sessions prior to 1873 are recorded in The Debates and Proceedings in the Congress of the United States (1789-1824), the Register of Debates in Congress (1824-1837), and the Congressional Globe (1833-1873)
Author: Richard C. Nolan Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1107170494 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 609
Book Description
New essays by leading figures from the judiciary, practicing lawyers and academics illuminating the worlds of trusts and wealth management.
Author: Barış Soyer Publisher: Taylor & Francis ISBN: 1000964566 Category : Law Languages : en Pages : 464
Book Description
This edited volume brings together contributions from experienced academics and practitioners in shipping law to consider the crucial subject of remedies in shipping litigation. The collection takes a close look at the established principles and recent legal, commercial and technical developments in the area of remedies in shipping law. It is divided into three parts. The first part focuses on fundamental common law principles concerning damages, including approaches to topics such as damages for delay and what happens when a charter is thrown over early; the reflective loss rule; mitigation; and the problem of cryptocurrency. The second part considers technology and how it affects contracts and remedies, including the use of new technologies and the development of new liability regimes. The third part explores contractual remedies other than simple compensatory damages, considering issues such as limitation of liability, punitive damages, specific remedies, third party claims and liabilities, and anti-suit injunctions. Written for lawyers and administrators not only in England and Wales but worldwide (especially Germany, Switzerland, Greece, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, China, Hong Kong, Singapore and India), the book will also be of interest to specialist maritime law firms in the USA. It will be a valuable addition to specialist law libraries within Europe and the USA, and to university libraries where maritime and shipping law are taught as specialist subjects.
Author: Marc D. Weidenmier
Author: Marc D. Weidenmier
Author: Paul S Davies
Author: Arie Arnon
Author: 
Author: 
Author: David Winterton
Author: United States. Congress
Author: Richard C. Nolan
Author: United States. Central Intelligence Agency
Author: Barış Soyer