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Author: Joshua M. Clark Publisher: ISBN: Category : Fire weather Languages : en Pages : 92
Book Description
Red Flag Warnings (RFWs) issued by the National Weather Service in the United States (U.S.) are an important fire early warning system based on forecasts of critical fire weather that foster fire activity including the occurrence of large fires. However, verification of RFWs as they relate to fire activity is lacking, thereby limiting means to improve forecasts as well as increase value for end-users. We evaluated the efficacy of RFWs as forecasts of large fire occurrence for the Northwestern U.S and found favorable performance broadly across the area, along with substantial skill and improvement over reference forecasts. We further demonstrate that the skill of RFWs is significantly higher for lightning-ignited large fires and for forecasts issued during periods of high fuel dryness. The results of this first verification study of RFWs lay the groundwork for future efforts towards improving the relevance and usefulness of RFWs to better serve the fire community and public.
Author: Joshua M. Clark Publisher: ISBN: Category : Fire weather Languages : en Pages : 92
Book Description
Red Flag Warnings (RFWs) issued by the National Weather Service in the United States (U.S.) are an important fire early warning system based on forecasts of critical fire weather that foster fire activity including the occurrence of large fires. However, verification of RFWs as they relate to fire activity is lacking, thereby limiting means to improve forecasts as well as increase value for end-users. We evaluated the efficacy of RFWs as forecasts of large fire occurrence for the Northwestern U.S and found favorable performance broadly across the area, along with substantial skill and improvement over reference forecasts. We further demonstrate that the skill of RFWs is significantly higher for lightning-ignited large fires and for forecasts issued during periods of high fuel dryness. The results of this first verification study of RFWs lay the groundwork for future efforts towards improving the relevance and usefulness of RFWs to better serve the fire community and public.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 186
Book Description
A long history of fire suppression by federal land management agencies has interrupted fire regimes in much of the western United States. Many forest types that historically burned frequently have undergone significant changes in species composition and have heavy accumulations of surface and canopy fuels. Fuel quantity and flammability are important local predictors of fire severity. The climate system operates at both broad and fine spatial and temporal scales to favor conditions that increase fuel loading through biomass accumulation and accelerate drying of fuels; and maintain active fires under favorable concurrent atmospheric conditions. Observed increases in large fire occurrence and area burned in recent decades are explained by warmer, drier, and longer growing season conditions in the West. There has not yet been a large-scale study that examines patterns and controls of high severity fire in the western US. We use a 30 year record of fire severity to identify the controls of high severity fire across the western US, develop statistical probability models for high severity fire occurrence and area burned, and examine the impacts of climate change on high severity fire risk. In examining topography, vegetation and fire-year climate as predictors we found that inclusion of both vegetation and fire-year climate predictors was critical for identifying fires with high fractional fire severity and capturing inter-annual variation in high severity fire occurrence. While a single, west-wide model was able to predict high severity fire occurrence with some accuracy, it was necessary to develop regional models to accurately predict high severity area burned for forests in extreme fire years. A simple generalized Pareto distribution model with maximum temperature the month of fire, annual normalized moisture deficit and location explains forest high severity area burned in a west-wide model, with the exception of years with especially large areas burned with high severity fire: 1988, 2002. With respect to mitigation or management of high severity fire, understanding what drives extreme fire years is critical. For the Northern Rocky Mountains, Sierra Nevada Mountains, and Southwest forests, topography, spring temperature and snowpack condition, and vegetation condition class variables improved our prediction of high severity burned area in extreme fire years. We used the models developed for the Northern Rocky Mountains to examine how fractional area of high severity fire will change with climate. Application of output from global circulation models to large fire occurrence and size models in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem indicates that climate conditions by mid-century will result in an increase in the frequency of large fire events and area burned. We applied GCM output to a set of probabilistic models for high severity fire occurrence and burned area for the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. We found that fraction of high severity burned area increases to levels by mid-century that are three times greater than a 1961-1990 reference period. These potential changes in high severity area burned and frequency of occurrence may result in changes to species composition in these high elevation forests. If a goal of management is to mitigate extreme fire events in terms of fire severity, we would conclude that knowledge of fire year climate is essential. All of the models we developed predict high severity fire occurrence and area burned with reasonable accuracy in all years when fire year climate and vegetation predictors are included. The inclusion of fire-year climate variables allows these models to forecast inter-annual variability in areas at future risk of high severity fire, beyond what slower-changing fuel conditions alone can accomplish. This allows for more targeted land management, including resource allocation for fuels reduction treatments to decrease the risk of high severity fire. Models like this will be important tools for assessing interactions between changing climate and fuel profiles under a diverse menu of future climate and management scenarios.
Author: B. D. Lawson Publisher: ISBN: Category : Fire risk assessment Languages : en Pages : 90
Book Description
This weather guide includes detailed specifications for locating and instrumenting fire weather stations, taking weather observations, and overwintering the Drought Code component of the FWI System. The sensitivity of the FWI System components to weather elements is represented quantitatively. The importance of weather that is not directly observable is discussed in the context of fuel moisture and fire behavior. Current developments in the observation and measurement of fire weather and the forecasting of fire danger are discussed, along with the implications for the reporting of fire weather of increasingly automated fire management information systems.
Author: Richard C. Rothermel Publisher: ISBN: Category : Flame spread Languages : en Pages : 168
Book Description
This manual documents procedures for estimating the rate of forward spread, intensity, flame length, and size of fires burning in forests and rangelands. Contains instructions for obtaining fuel and weather data, calculating fire behavior, and interpreting the results for application to actual fire problems.
Author: National Research Council Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309137535 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 296
Book Description
Many coastal areas of the United States are at risk for tsunamis. After the catastrophic 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean, legislation was passed to expand U.S. tsunami warning capabilities. Since then, the nation has made progress in several related areas on both the federal and state levels. At the federal level, NOAA has improved the ability to detect and forecast tsunamis by expanding the sensor network. Other federal and state activities to increase tsunami safety include: improvements to tsunami hazard and evacuation maps for many coastal communities; vulnerability assessments of some coastal populations in several states; and new efforts to increase public awareness of the hazard and how to respond. Tsunami Warning and Preparedness explores the advances made in tsunami detection and preparedness, and identifies the challenges that still remain. The book describes areas of research and development that would improve tsunami education, preparation, and detection, especially with tsunamis that arrive less than an hour after the triggering event. It asserts that seamless coordination between the two Tsunami Warning Centers and clear communications to local officials and the public could create a timely and effective response to coastal communities facing a pending tsuanami. According to Tsunami Warning and Preparedness, minimizing future losses to the nation from tsunamis requires persistent progress across the broad spectrum of efforts including: risk assessment, public education, government coordination, detection and forecasting, and warning-center operations. The book also suggests designing effective interagency exercises, using professional emergency-management standards to prepare communities, and prioritizing funding based on tsunami risk.
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309388805 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 351
Book Description
As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Author: U.S. Global Change Research Program Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 0521144078 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 193
Book Description
Summarizes the science of climate change and impacts on the United States, for the public and policymakers.
Author: Stefano Bonnini Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118763483 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 242
Book Description
A novel presentation of rank and permutation tests, with accessible guidance to applications in R Nonparametric testing problems are frequently encountered in many scientific disciplines, such as engineering, medicine and the social sciences. This book summarizes traditional rank techniques and more recent developments in permutation testing as robust tools for dealing with complex data with low sample size. Key Features: Examines the most widely used methodologies of nonparametric testing. Includes extensive software codes in R featuring worked examples, and uses real case studies from both experimental and observational studies. Presents and discusses solutions to the most important and frequently encountered real problems in different fields. Features a supporting website (www.wiley.com/go/hypothesis_testing) containing all of the data sets examined in the book along with ready to use R software codes. Nonparametric Hypothesis Testing combines an up to date overview with useful practical guidance to applications in R, and will be a valuable resource for practitioners and researchers working in a wide range of scientific fields including engineering, biostatistics, psychology and medicine.
Author: Joshua M. Clark
Author: Joshua M. Clark
Author: David M. Henry
Author: 
Author: B. D. Lawson
Author: Clive M. Countryman
Author: Richard C. Rothermel
Author: National Research Council
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Author: U.S. Global Change Research Program
Author: Stefano Bonnini