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Calculating Catastrophe

Calculating Catastrophe PDF Author: G. Woo
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 1848167407
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 368

Book Description
1. Natural hazards. 1.1. Causation and association. 1.2. Extra-terrestrial hazards. 1.3. Meteorological hazards. 1.4. Geological hazards. 1.5. Geomorphic hazards. 1.6. Hydrological hazards -- 2. Societal hazards. 2.1. Political violence. 2.2. Infectious disease pandemics. 2.3. Industrial and transportation accidents. 2.4. Fraud catastrophe -- 3. A sense of scale. 3.1. Size scales of natural hazards. 3.2. Hazard spatial scales. 3.3. The human disaster toll. 3.4. Models of a fractal world -- 4. A measure of uncertainty. 4.1. The concept of probability. 4.2. The meaning of uncertainty. 4.3. Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. 4.4. Probability ambiguity. 4.5. The weighing of evidence -- 5. A matter of time. 5.1. Temporal models of hazards. 5.2. Long-term data records. 5.3. Statistics of extremes -- 6. Catastrophe complexity. 6.1. Emergent catastrophes. 6.2. Financial crashes. 6.3. Ancillary hazards -- 7. Terrorism. 7.1. A thinking man's game. 7.2. Defeating terrorist networks. 7.3. Counter-radicalization -- 8. Forecasting. 8.1. Earthquake forecasting. 8.2. Verification. 8.3. River flows and sea waves. 8.4. Accelerating approach to criticality. 8.5. Evidence-based diagnosis -- 9. Disaster warning. 9.1. Decision in the balance. 9.2. Evacuation. 9.3. The wisdom of experts -- 10. Disaster scenarios. 10.1. Scenario simulation. 10.2. Footprints and vulnerability. 10.3. Fermi problems -- 11. Catastrophe cover. 11.1. Probable maximum loss. 11.2. Coherent risk measures. 11.3. The Samaritan's dilemma -- 12. Catastrophe risk securitization. 12.1. Catastrophe bonds. 12.2. The price of innovation -- 13. Risk horizons. 13.1. Ecological catastrophe. 13.2. Climate change. 13.3. War and conflict resolution

Calculating Catastrophe

Calculating Catastrophe PDF Author: G. Woo
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 1848167407
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 368

Book Description
1. Natural hazards. 1.1. Causation and association. 1.2. Extra-terrestrial hazards. 1.3. Meteorological hazards. 1.4. Geological hazards. 1.5. Geomorphic hazards. 1.6. Hydrological hazards -- 2. Societal hazards. 2.1. Political violence. 2.2. Infectious disease pandemics. 2.3. Industrial and transportation accidents. 2.4. Fraud catastrophe -- 3. A sense of scale. 3.1. Size scales of natural hazards. 3.2. Hazard spatial scales. 3.3. The human disaster toll. 3.4. Models of a fractal world -- 4. A measure of uncertainty. 4.1. The concept of probability. 4.2. The meaning of uncertainty. 4.3. Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. 4.4. Probability ambiguity. 4.5. The weighing of evidence -- 5. A matter of time. 5.1. Temporal models of hazards. 5.2. Long-term data records. 5.3. Statistics of extremes -- 6. Catastrophe complexity. 6.1. Emergent catastrophes. 6.2. Financial crashes. 6.3. Ancillary hazards -- 7. Terrorism. 7.1. A thinking man's game. 7.2. Defeating terrorist networks. 7.3. Counter-radicalization -- 8. Forecasting. 8.1. Earthquake forecasting. 8.2. Verification. 8.3. River flows and sea waves. 8.4. Accelerating approach to criticality. 8.5. Evidence-based diagnosis -- 9. Disaster warning. 9.1. Decision in the balance. 9.2. Evacuation. 9.3. The wisdom of experts -- 10. Disaster scenarios. 10.1. Scenario simulation. 10.2. Footprints and vulnerability. 10.3. Fermi problems -- 11. Catastrophe cover. 11.1. Probable maximum loss. 11.2. Coherent risk measures. 11.3. The Samaritan's dilemma -- 12. Catastrophe risk securitization. 12.1. Catastrophe bonds. 12.2. The price of innovation -- 13. Risk horizons. 13.1. Ecological catastrophe. 13.2. Climate change. 13.3. War and conflict resolution

An Introduction to Catastrophe Theory

An Introduction to Catastrophe Theory PDF Author: Peter Timothy Saunders
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521297820
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 162

Book Description
An introduction to catastrophe theory, a mathematical theory which deals with those changes which occur abruptly rather than smoothly. Includes many applications to illustrate the different ways in which catastrophe can be used in life, physical and social sciences.

Catastrophe Theory for Scientists and Engineers

Catastrophe Theory for Scientists and Engineers PDF Author: Robert Gilmore
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN:
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 696

Book Description
Good,No Highlights,No Markup,all pages are intact, Slight Shelfwear,may have the corners slightly dented, may have slight color changes/slightly damaged spine.

Assessing the Landscape

Assessing the Landscape PDF Author: Damon Hearne
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Wolves
Languages : en
Pages : 401

Book Description


Systems Science

Systems Science PDF Author: Yi Lin
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1439895511
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 403

Book Description
By making use of the principles of systems science, the scientific community can explain many complicated matters of the world and shed new light on unsettled problems. Each real science has its own particular methodology for not only qualitative but also quantitative analyses, so it is important to understand the organic whole of systems research with operable mathematical methods. Systems Science: Methodological Approaches presents a mathematical explanation of systems science, giving readers a complete technical formulation of different systemic laws. It enables them to use a unified methodology to attack different problems that are hard, if not impossible, for modern science to handle. Following a brief history of systems science, the book explores: Basic concepts, characteristics, properties, and classifications of general systems Nonlinear systems dynamics and the theory of catastrophe Dissipative structures and synergistics Studies of chaos, including logistic mapping, phase space reconstruction, Lyapunov exponents, and chaos of general single relation systems Different aspects and concepts of fractals, including a presentation of L systems analysis and design Complex systems and complexity, with a discussion of how the phenomena of "three" and complexity are related, and how various cellular automata can be constructed to generate useful simulations and figurative patterns Complex adaptive systems and open complex giant systems, with introduction of the yoyo model and practical applications Complex networks and related concepts and methods The book concludes with several case studies that demonstrate how various concepts and the logic of systems can be practically applied to resolve real-life problems, such as the prediction of natural disasters. The book will be useful in directing future research and applications of systems science on a commonly accepted platform and playground.

Catastrophe

Catastrophe PDF Author: David Keys
Publisher: Ballantine Books
ISBN: 0345444361
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 465

Book Description
It was a catastrophe without precedent in recorded history: for months on end, starting in A.D. 535, a strange, dusky haze robbed much of the earth of normal sunlight. Crops failed in Asia and the Middle East as global weather patterns radically altered. Bubonic plague, exploding out of Africa, wiped out entire populations in Europe. Flood and drought brought ancient cultures to the brink of collapse. In a matter of decades, the old order died and a new world—essentially the modern world as we know it today—began to emerge. In this fascinating, groundbreaking, totally accessible book, archaeological journalist David Keys dramatically reconstructs the global chain of revolutions that began in the catastrophe of A.D. 535, then offers a definitive explanation of how and why this cataclysm occurred on that momentous day centuries ago. The Roman Empire, the greatest power in Europe and the Middle East for centuries, lost half its territory in the century following the catastrophe. During the exact same period, the ancient southern Chinese state, weakened by economic turmoil, succumbed to invaders from the north, and a single unified China was born. Meanwhile, as restless tribes swept down from the central Asian steppes, a new religion known as Islam spread through the Middle East. As Keys demonstrates with compelling originality and authoritative research, these were not isolated upheavals but linked events arising from the same cause and rippling around the world like an enormous tidal wave. Keys's narrative circles the globe as he identifies the eerie fallout from the months of darkness: unprecedented drought in Central America, a strange yellow dust drifting like snow over eastern Asia, prolonged famine, and the hideous pandemic of the bubonic plague. With a superb command of ancient literatures and historical records, Keys makes hitherto unrecognized connections between the "wasteland" that overspread the British countryside and the fall of the great pyramid-building Teotihuacan civilization in Mexico, between a little-known "Jewish empire" in Eastern Europe and the rise of the Japanese nation-state, between storms in France and pestilence in Ireland. In the book's final chapters, Keys delves into the mystery at the heart of this global catastrophe: Why did it happen? The answer, at once surprising and definitive, holds chilling implications for our own precarious geopolitical future. Wide-ranging in its scholarship, written with flair and passion, filled with original insights, Catastrophe is a superb synthesis of history, science, and cultural interpretation.

Holocaust Images and Picturing Catastrophe

Holocaust Images and Picturing Catastrophe PDF Author: Angi Buettner
Publisher: Ashgate Publishing, Ltd.
ISBN: 9781409407652
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 222

Book Description
Holocaust Images and Picturing Catastrophe explores the phenomenon of Holocaust transfer, analysing the widespread practice of using the Holocaust and its imagery for the representation and recording of other historical events in various media sites. Richly illustrated with concrete examples, this book traces the visual rhetoric of Holocaust imagery and its application to events other than the genocide of Jewish people.

Chaos, Catastrophe, and Human Affairs

Chaos, Catastrophe, and Human Affairs PDF Author: Stephen J. Guastello
Publisher: Psychology Press
ISBN: 1134787782
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 450

Book Description
Whether talking about steering a wheelbarrow over rugged terrain or plotting the course of international relations, human performance systems involve change. Sometimes changes are subtle or evolutionary, sometimes they are catastrophic or revolutionary, and sometimes the changes are from periods of relative calm to periods of vibrant oscillations to periods of chaos. As a general rule, more complex systems are likely to produce more complex forms of change. Although social scientists have long acknowledged that change occurs and have considered ways to effect desirable change, the dynamical processes of change have been poorly understood in the past. This volume combines recent advances in mathematics and experimental design with the best available social science theories to produce a new, integrated, and compact theory of work, organizations, and social evolution. The domains of application extend from human decision-making processes to personnel selection and work motivation, work performance under conditions of stress, accident and health risk analysis, the development of social institutions and economic systems, creativity and innovation, organizational development and group dynamics, and political revolutions and war. Relative to other literature on nonlinear dynamical systems theory (NDS), this book is unique in that it integrates new developments in NDS with substantive psychological theory. It builds on many recent developments in organizational theory to show that nonlinear dynamics were often implicit in those works all along. The result is an entirely new way of viewing social events, understanding change processes, and asking questions about social systems. This book also contains much new empirical work and explains the newly developed methods for testing these new hypotheses.

A Century of Psychology

A Century of Psychology PDF Author: Ray Fuller
Publisher: Psychology Press
ISBN: 9780415162197
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 354

Book Description
Includes a review of the successes & failures of psychology's first century, from top scientists and professionals worldwide.

Catastrophe Theory

Catastrophe Theory PDF Author: Alexander Woodcock
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780140135794
Category : Catastrophes (Mathematics)
Languages : en
Pages : 171

Book Description