Two Essays in Monetary Economics PDF Download

Author: P. D. Jonson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Balance of payments
Languages : en
Pages : 53

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Author: Sherman J. Ho
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Demand for money
Languages : en
Pages : 296

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Author: Marcel Bluhm
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 180

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Author: Harry G. Johnson
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134623631
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 284

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Reprinting the second edition (which included a new introduction explaining developments which had emerged since first publication) this book discusses explorations in the fundamental theory of a monetary economy, a theoretical critique of the ‘Phillips Curve’ approach to the theory of inflation and the theory of the term structure of interest rates in terms of the theory of forward markets pioneered by David Meiselman.

Author: Liang Ma
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
This dissertation consists of three essays in the field of monetary and financial economics. Specifically, we use high-frequency financial data to study monetary policies with a focus on the information effect, namely, that some of the interest rate movements around central bank announcements are not policy-driven, but are results of the market becoming aware of the central bank's view about future economic prospects. Understanding the role played by the information effect will help us apprehend monetary policy implications in both normal times and extraordinary situations. Chapter 1 evaluates the impact of unconventional monetary policy in the newly developed instrumental variable structural Vector Autoregression (VAR) framework. In the current low interest rate environment, central banks must resort to using unconventional monetary policies, such as forward guidance and quantitative easing, to flight recessions. To empirically evaluate the effectiveness of these unconventional policies, we need to rely on the clean policy shock. A prominent concern is that the often used high-frequency interest rate surprises not only reflect unexpected policy changes, but also contain the information effect. We contribute to the literature by using a heteroskedasticity identification approach, taking advantage of changes in the relative dominance of economic shocks around different macroeconomic announcements. Analysis based on clean policy shocks suggests that the unconventional policies successfully aided the recovery in the U.S. More importantly, we show that the information effect, while it may introduce bias, is rather modest when it comes to estimating the real impact of unconventional monetary policies. Chapter 2 studies the stock return pattern after the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement. This research is motivated by recent literature that documents stock returns drifts, both before and after FOMC announcements, according to policy rate surprises. Indeed, research has shown that the information contained in the central bank announcement is multifaceted: its current monetary policy stances (monetary policy news) and news about future economic prospects (non-monetary policy news). Our contribution is to combine these two strands of literature. To the best of our knowledge, no study has looked at stock market reactions to the non-monetary news stemming from policy announcements. We identify both good and bad news events using a combination of sign restriction with high-frequency financial prices. The novel finding is that following bad FOMC announcements, that is the market interpreted the Fed announcements as revealing negative information about the economy, we observe significant positive stock returns in a 20-day period. We call this the ``post-FOMC drift.'' Further analysis suggests that the drift is likely caused by relatively heightened risks associated with bad announcements, although the drift is consistent with market overreactions as well. Moreover, the post FOMC drift is a market-wide phenomenon and can be exploited in an easy-to-implement trading strategy with a historical record of earning 40\% of the annual equity premium. In Chapter 3, we explore the channels through which the FOMC announcements affect the financial market. While much of the existing literature measures the surprise components with only changes in policy rates (surrounding the announcement), we contribute to the existing literature by taking a broader view through examining unexpected changes in longer-term yields, corporate credit spreads, and inflation expectations (a proxy for growth prospects), using high-frequency financial data. Through a regression analysis, our findings show that these additional surprises provide orthogonal information and sharply increase the goodness of fit in explaining stock returns around FOMC announcements, with the inclusion of inflation expectations having the biggest contribution. The important role of inflation expectation suggests that the current literature, which uses stock prices together with nominal rates to disentangle the information contents of central bank announcements, may be too limited in the scope of information it uses.

Author: Wang, Xi (Economist)
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Electronic dissertations
Languages : en
Pages : 150

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The first part of this dissertation explores an empirical relevance to understand the equity premium puzzle. Since only the wealthiest people invest significant amounts in the stock market (limited participation), it is reasonable to combine the consumption data of the wealthy, instead of aggregate data, with observed asset returns to estimate the risk aversion coefficient (RRA). I approximate the consumption by the rich from two angles: one explores the income and wealth data to back out synthetic consumption directly, and the other explores the sales data to approximate the expenditure by the rich. By using the created indices, the lowest RRA estimate is around three for the first approach, and slightly below ten for the second one. Furthermore, when I use my indices to fit more moments besides excess return, the estimate of RRA increases modestly, e.g., to fit returns of 25 size and book-to-market portfolios, estimates of RRA are between 2.16 and 18. I conclude that these indices, especially the top consumption processes, provide a useful vantage point from which we can reassess the theory of consumption-based asset pricing. When I used these newly constructed indices in a factor model, my factor model explains cross-sectional excess returns better than CAPM and CCAPM model with aggregate consumption. The latter two parts are to re-evaluate the Quantity Theory of Money(QTM) using, to the extent possible, the same statistical and economic criteria but a much larger data set covering both a longer period and many more countries. I investigate whether QTM breaks across countries and I find Lucas' result fragile. It appears that the period 1955-1980 is the only period during which QTM fits data well in most of our sample countries. It starts to break down when we go beyond this period. Furthermore, the recent breaking down of QTM is not global when I truncate the sample before the crisis since QTM is not a tight rule across countries. To explain the breaking down for the U.S during Pre-crisis Period (1980-2007), the second part shows M2 is a more robust monetary index by investigating the historical performance of M1. Under the view of endogenous money. Namely, broad money(M2) is generated from loan issuing. I decompose the structure of loans for the U.S. I found that real estate is the major collateral asset for Household and Firms. I thus propose money is after real estate and final goods. To confirm our theory, we investigate a historical nominal price index of U.S and find that (long-run) growth of nominal house price co-moves with(leads) growth of broad money more robustly. Furthermore, the timing of recent financial innovation matches with breaking data. I thus propose a channel through which financial innovation can affect the estimation of QTM.

Author: Geoffrey Wood
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISBN: 1136835326
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 332

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Book Description
Forrest Capie is an eminent economic historian who has published extensively on a wide range of topics, with an emphasis on banking and monetary history, particularly in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, but also in other areas such as tariffs and the interwar economy. He is a former editor of the Economic History Review, one of the leading academic journals in this discipline. Under the steely editorship of Geoffrey Wood, this book brings together a stellar line of of contributors - including Charles Goodhart, Harold James, Michael Bordo, Barry Eichengreen, Charles Calomiris, and Anna Schwartz. The book analyzes many of the mainstream themes in economic and financial history - monetary policy, international financial regulation, economic performance, exchange rate systems, international trade, banking and financial markets - where historical perspectives are considered important. The current wave of globalisation has stimulated interest in many of these areas as ‘lessons of history’ are sought. These themes also reflect the breadth of Capie’s work in terms of time periods and topics.

Author: Filippo Cesarano
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1134098669
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 256

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Book Description
An objective and perceptive account of the literature of monetary theory, this volume, by a central banker who has studied monetary theory over the last quarter of a century, clearly shows how its inherent complexity is much enriched by the study of its history. In three parts Filippo Cesarano: focuses on the innovative ideas of distinguished economists who anticipated modern theories, elaborating on them along lines that suggest original research programmes examines the impact of expectations on the effectiveness of monetary policy, illustrating how different assumptions within the classical paradigm lead to diverse hypotheses and policy design investigates the role of monetary theory in shaping monetary institutions. Deserving of a wide readership among both academic economists and monetary policy practitioners, this collection of essays is key reading for students and researchers engaged with monetary theory and the history of economics and policy makers seeking to weigh up the assumptions underlying different theories in order to select the models best suited to the problems they face.

Author: Philip Arestis
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1349219355
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 236

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Book Description
In these twelve essays, spanning fifteen years, Victoria Chick develops a distinctive view of macroeconomics (especially the economics of Keynes) and monetary theory. By careful and rigorous analysis in which nothing is taken for granted, she uncovers the implicit assumptions of economic theory and argues, in a variety of contexts, that differences of economic method and the influence of the stylised facts are decisive forces, both in the construction of theories and in appraising their contemporary relevance.

Author: Charles Albert Eric Goodhart
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 306

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Book Description
Monetary History, Exchange Rates and Financial Markets is a collection of original papers in honour of Charles Goodhart's outstanding contribution to monetary economics and policy. Its contributors - eminent international academics, central bankers and financial market regulators - provide an insight into an extensive set of issues including: the role of the history of economic thought in modern macroeconomics; Charles Goodhart's contribution to British monetary history; lessons from the crises of financial globalization; customer trades and extreme events in foreign exchange; trading activity, volatility and liquidity in foreign exchange markets; and competition, stability, and financial regulation.