Trust What You Hear: Policy Communication, Expectations, and Fiscal Credibility PDF Download

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Trust What You Hear: Policy Communication, Expectations, and Fiscal Credibility

Trust What You Hear: Policy Communication, Expectations, and Fiscal Credibility PDF Author: Mr. Nicolas End
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 59

Book Description
How do policy communications on future f iscal targets af fect market expectations and beliefs about the future conduct of f iscal policy? In this paper, we develop indicators of f iscal credibility that quantify the degree to which policy announcements anchor expectations, based on the deviation of private expectations f rom official targets, for 41 countries. We find that policy announcements partly re-anchor expectations and that f iscal rules and strong fiscal institutions, as well as a good policy track record, contribute to magnifying this effect, thereby improving fiscal credibility. Conversely, empirical analysis suggests that markets reward credibility with more favorable sovereign financing conditions.
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