Transmission of Shocks and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area' an Exercise With Nigem PDF Download
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Author: Enrique Alberola Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Global macroeconometric models can be a powerful tool for economic analysis and forecasting in various scenarios. This paper analyses the NiGEM model and its application to the euro area, placing particular emphasis on the study of the relative situation of the member countries' economies. The findings of the paper show that NiGEM provides for different reactions by the European economies to common exchange- and interest-rate changes, owing to their different economic structures. Notwithstanding the potential interest of these findings, the design and evaluation of shocks in NiGEM may be seen to call for a high degree of caution if NiGEM is to be considered a reliable and useful instrument.
Author: Enrique Alberola Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Global macroeconometric models can be a powerful tool for economic analysis and forecasting in various scenarios. This paper analyses the NiGEM model and its application to the euro area, placing particular emphasis on the study of the relative situation of the member countries' economies. The findings of the paper show that NiGEM provides for different reactions by the European economies to common exchange- and interest-rate changes, owing to their different economic structures. Notwithstanding the potential interest of these findings, the design and evaluation of shocks in NiGEM may be seen to call for a high degree of caution if NiGEM is to be considered a reliable and useful instrument.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: 9789289468664 Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This paper studies the transmission of monetary and fiscal policy in the Euro-area. To do so, a structural VAR (SVAR) of monetary and fiscal policy transmission in the Euro-area is estimated. First, the EMU countries are considered as an aggregate entity and the SVAR model of the aggregate of EMU countries is compared with SVAR models of the US and Japan. This exercise is useful to assess the effects of monetary and fiscal policy on the aggregate EMU economy and also to have a comparison with two other major economies. Attention is also paid to interaction of macroeconomic policies and the effects of shocks in financial markets. In a next step, SVARs are estimated for the individual EMU countries to gain more insight into cross-country asymmetries in the transmission of monetary and fiscal policies. It turns out that, compared to the EMU aggregate, individual EU countries often react rather differently to monetary and fiscal policy innovations.
Author: Joao Sousa Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Abstract: This paper analyzes the response of a set of euro area macroeconomic variables to monetary policy and technology shocks based on structural VARs. The data set runs from 1970Q1 until 2006Q4 and includes a novel long-run series for hours worked per capita in the euro area. We find that real macroeconomic variables follow a hump-shaped response after monetary policy shocks and jump on impact after technology shocks. We also provide evidence that hours worked fall after a positive technology shock. These conclusions are robust to different sample periods and specifications of the variables
Author: Publisher: ISBN: 9789289948647 Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the interest rate pass-through of euro area monetary policy to retail rates outside the euro area, contributing to the literature on the consequences of unofficial financial euroisation and on the transmission channels of monetary policy spillovers. The results suggest that in the long run, more than one third of all euro retail rates in euroised countries of central, eastern and south-eastern Europe (CESEE) are linked to the euro area shadow rate. Compared to euro area monetary policy, the share of cointegration of the domestic monetary policy rate is lower, suggesting that domestic central banks in euroised countries with independent monetary policy can only partially control the `euro part' of the interest rate channel. Furthermore, euro area monetary policy shocks are fast and persistently transmitted into euro retail rates outside the euro area, which constitutes an additional channel of international shock transmission.
Author: Jan Pablo Burgard Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 29
Book Description
In this paper, we estimate a logit mixture vector autoregressive (Logit-MVAR) model describing monetary policy transmission in the euro area over the period 1999-2015. MVARs allow us to differentiate between different states of the economy. In our model, the time-varying state weights are determined by an underlying logit model. In contrast to other classes of non-linear VARs, the regime affiliation is neither strictly binary, nor binary with a transition period, and based on multiple variables. We show that monetary policy transmission in the euro area can indeed be described as a mixture of two states. The first (second) state with an overall share of 84% (16%) can be interpreted as a “normal state” (“crisis state”). In both states, output and prices are found to decrease after monetary policy shocks. During “crisis times” the contraction is much stronger, as the peak effect is roughly one-and-a-half times as large when compared to “normal times.” In contrast, the effect of monetary policy shocks is less enduring in crisis times. Both findings provide a strong indication that the transmission mechanism is indeed different for the euro area during times of economic and financial distress.
Author: Michele Ca'Zorzi Publisher: ISBN: Category : International economic relations Languages : en Pages : 41
Book Description
This paper compares the international transmission of European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve System (Fed) monetary policy in a unified framework, identifying pure monetary policy shocks purged of bias from central bank information effects. The estimates reveal a stark asymmetry in the global spillovers from ECB and Fed monetary policy: Fed monetary policy shocks have a significant impact on euro area financial conditions and real activity, while ECB monetary policy shocks do not have a similar effect on the United States (US). Fed monetary policy shocks also affect real and financial variables in the rest of the world more than ECB monetary policy shocks.
Author: Enrique Alberola
Author: Enrique Alberola
Author: Eva Ortega
Author: 
Author: Stefano Neri
Author: Axel A. Weber
Author: Nils Jannsen
Author: Joao Sousa
Author: 
Author: Jan Pablo Burgard
Author: Michele Ca'Zorzi