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Author: Marco P. Tucci Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1402028741 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 268
Book Description
One of the major controversies in macroeconomics over the last 30 years has been that on the effectiveness of stabilization policies. However, this debate, between those who believe that this kind of policies is useless if not harmful and those who argue in favor of it, has been mainly theoretical so far. The Rational Expectation Hypothesis, Time-Varying Parameters and Adaptive Control wants to represent a step toward the construction of a common ground on which to empirically compare the two "beliefs" and to do this three strands of literature are brought together. The first strand is the research on time-varying parameters (TVP), the second strand is the work on adaptive control and the third one is the literature on linear stationary models with rational expectations (RE). The material presented in The Rational Expectation Hypothesis, Time-Varying Parameters and Adaptive Control is divided into two parts. Part 1 combines the strand of literature on adaptive control with that on TVP. It generalizes the approach pioneered by Tse and Bar-Shalom (1973) and Kendrick (1981) and one recently used in Amman and Kendrick (2002), where the law of motion of the TVP and the hyperstructural parameters are assumed known, to the case where the hyperstructural parameters are assumed unknown. Part 2 is devoted to the linear single-equation stationary RE model estimated with the error-in-variables (EV) method. It presents a new formulation of this problem based on the use of TVP in an EV model. This new formulation opens the door to a very promising development. All the theory developed in the first part to control a model with TVP can sic et simpliciter be applied to control a model with RE.
Author: Marco P. Tucci Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1402028741 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 268
Book Description
One of the major controversies in macroeconomics over the last 30 years has been that on the effectiveness of stabilization policies. However, this debate, between those who believe that this kind of policies is useless if not harmful and those who argue in favor of it, has been mainly theoretical so far. The Rational Expectation Hypothesis, Time-Varying Parameters and Adaptive Control wants to represent a step toward the construction of a common ground on which to empirically compare the two "beliefs" and to do this three strands of literature are brought together. The first strand is the research on time-varying parameters (TVP), the second strand is the work on adaptive control and the third one is the literature on linear stationary models with rational expectations (RE). The material presented in The Rational Expectation Hypothesis, Time-Varying Parameters and Adaptive Control is divided into two parts. Part 1 combines the strand of literature on adaptive control with that on TVP. It generalizes the approach pioneered by Tse and Bar-Shalom (1973) and Kendrick (1981) and one recently used in Amman and Kendrick (2002), where the law of motion of the TVP and the hyperstructural parameters are assumed known, to the case where the hyperstructural parameters are assumed unknown. Part 2 is devoted to the linear single-equation stationary RE model estimated with the error-in-variables (EV) method. It presents a new formulation of this problem based on the use of TVP in an EV model. This new formulation opens the door to a very promising development. All the theory developed in the first part to control a model with TVP can sic et simpliciter be applied to control a model with RE.
Author: Eelke de Jong Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3642516688 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 280
Book Description
1.1 Some characteristics of the floating exchange rate system The flexible exchange rate system has functioned far less satisfactorily than many anticipated in 1973, when the major industrialized countries decided to let their currencies float. The dominant currencies' exchange rates have fluctuated more 1 than expected. These fluctuations concern both short-term movement- intraday fluctuations and movements during a week or a month - and long term changes that last for more than a year. Daily percentage changes of one percent are not unusual for the recent float (see MacDonald, 1988, p.8). However, the release of new information can give rise to much larger changes. For example in August 1987 "the dollar moved down 6 percent in two days based on the July trade figures" (Glynn, 1988, p. 36). For the period 1973-1985 MacDonald (1988, p.10) presents minimum and maximum monthly percentage exchange rate changes. These figures clearly illustrate the magnitude of the volatility and also show that the volatility has not diminished as the experience 2 with floating has increased. In addition to this volatility, exchange rates are also characterized by misalignment: "persistent departure of the exchange rate from its long-run equilibrium" (Williamson, 1983, p.l3). Although the measure of misalignment depends upon the exact definition of the exchange rate's long-run equilibrium, there is a widespread feeling that during the greater part of the 1970s the dollar was undervalued, whereas it was overvalued during the first half of the 1980s.
Author: G. Bitros Publisher: Springer ISBN: 0230629253 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 314
Book Description
This book is intended to provide a basic understanding of current issues and problems of economic integration. Identifying economic integration as one of the main features of modern international economics, the authors examine its many aspects and consequences which remain as yet obscure and unexplored. After addressing general issues regarding economic integration, the authors include empirical theoretical analyses of the monetary union, social policy reform, social union, public finance and technological policies.
Author: Mondher Bellalah Publisher: World Scientific ISBN: 981447441X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 645
Book Description
This book provides a comprehensive discussion of the issues related to risk, volatility, value and risk management. It includes a selection of the best papers presented at the Fourth International Finance Conference 2007, qualified by Professor James Heckman, the 2000 Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics, as a “high level” one. The first half of the book examines ways to manage risk and compute value-at-risk for exchange risk associated to debt portfolios and portfolios of equity. It also covers the Basel II framework implementation and securitisation. The effects of volatility and risk on the valuation of financial assets are further studied in detail.The second half of the book is dedicated to the banking industry, banking competition on the credit market, banking risk and distress, market valuation, managerial risk taking, and value in the ICT activity. With its inclusion of new concepts and recent literature, academics and risk managers will want to read this book.
Author: Chin Long Chiang Publisher: Krieger Publishing Company ISBN: Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 552
Book Description
Random variables. Probability generating functions. Exponential-type distributions and maximum likelihood estimation. Branching process, random walk and ruin problem. Markov chains. Algebraic treatment of finite Markov chains. Renewal processes. Some stochastic models of population growth. A general birth process, an equality and an epidemic model. Birth-death processes and queueing processes. A simple illness-death process - fix-neyman processes. Multiple transition probabilities in the simple illness death process. Multiple transition time in the simple illness death process - an alternating renewal process. The kolmogorov differential equations and finite markov processes. Kolmogorov differential equations and finite markov processes - continuation. A general illness-death process. Migration processes and birth-illness-death processes.
Author: Sean Holly Publisher: Pergamon ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 458
Book Description
This volume contains papers that were presented at the Symposium on Computation in Economics and Finance organised under the auspices of the International Federation of Automatic Control and the Society for Computational Economics. The Conference was held at Cambridge University, UK, from 29th June to the 1st July 1998. It attracted many members of the international academic and research community in computational economics, finance and econometrics. This volume brings together a number of papers that demonstrate the use of computational methods in a variety of areas in economics and finance. The contributions to the Symposium reflect the various shifts in the profession and the increasing use of computationally intensive techniques for the analysis of economic processes. Papers have been grouped into sections, according to their context rather than in the order in which they were presented. Section 1 groups papers in the area of Finance including both theoretical and empirical studies. Section 2 reflects a fast growing interest in seeking to model economic processes in novel ways drawing on the emerging literature in artificial intelligence and genetic adaptation. Section 3 demonstrates the growing use of computational languages as a tool for the analysis and modelling of economic systems. Subsequent sections range across many areas involving game theory, policy co-ordination, agent based models, time series and econometrics, neural networks, nonlinearities and simulation methods. The preparation and selection of this volume owes much to the assistance and advice of both Berccedil; Rustem and David Kendrick and the steering committee of the Society for Computational Economics.
Author: Lars Peter Hansen Publisher: Princeton University Press ISBN: 0691170975 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 453
Book Description
The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.
Author: José António Tenreiro Machado Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 146140231X Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 328
Book Description
Nonlinear Dynamics of Complex Systems describes chaos, fractal and stochasticities within celestial mechanics, financial systems and biochemical systems. Part I discusses methods and applications in celestial systems and new results in such areas as low energy impact dynamics, low-thrust planar trajectories to the moon and earth-to-halo transfers in the sun, earth and moon. Part II presents the dynamics of complex systems including bio-systems, neural systems, chemical systems and hydro-dynamical systems. Finally, Part III covers economic and financial systems including market uncertainty, inflation, economic activity and foreign competition and the role of nonlinear dynamics in each.
Author: George W. Evans Publisher: Princeton University Press ISBN: 0691049211 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 439
Book Description
A crucial challenge for economists is to figure out how people interpret the world and form expectations that are likely to influence their economic activity. This work examines a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor.
Author: Marco P. Tucci
Author: Marco P. Tucci
Author: Eelke de Jong
Author: 
Author: G. Bitros
Author: Mondher Bellalah
Author: Chin Long Chiang
Author: Sean Holly
Author: Lars Peter Hansen
Author: José António Tenreiro Machado
Author: George W. Evans