The Use of Cyclical Indicators in Estimating the Output Gap in Japan PDF Download

Author: Jane Haltmaier
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Industrial productivity
Languages : en
Pages : 40

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Author: Mr.Alvar Kangur
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513512544
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 42

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Book Description
We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have large and negative averages that are largely revised away in later vintages. Most of the mis-measurement in real time can be explained by the difficulty in predicting recessions and by overestimation of the economy’s potential capacity. We also find, in line with earlier literature, that real-time output gaps are not useful for predicting inflation. In addition, countries where slack (and potential growth) is overestimated to a larger extent primary fiscal balances tend to be lower and public debt ratios are higher and increase faster than projected. Previous research suggests that national authorities’ real-time output gaps suffer from a similar bias. To the extent these estimates play a role in calibrating fiscal policy, over-optimism about long-term growth could contribute to excessive deficits and debt buildup.

Author: Luc Eyraud
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484350685
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 132

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Fiscal rule frameworks have evolved significantly in response to the global financial crisis. Many countries have reformed their fiscal rules or introduced new ones with a view to enhancing the credibility of fiscal policy and providing a medium-term anchor. Enforcement and monitoring mechanisms have also been upgraded. However, these innovations have made the systems of rules more complicated to operate, while compliance has not improved. The SDN takes stock of past experiences, reviews recent reforms, and presents new research on the effectiveness of rules. It also proposes guiding principles for future reforms to strike a better balance between simplicity, flexibility, and enforceability. Read the blog

Author: Zidong An
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616356049
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 22

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The negative and stable relationship between an economy’s aggregate demand conditions and overall unemployment is well-documented. We show that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across worker and economy groups. First, unemployment is more than twice as sensitive to aggregate demand in advanced as in emerging market and developing economies. Second, youth’s unemployment is twice as sensitive as that of adults’. Third, women’s unemployment is significantly less sensitive to demand than men’s in advanced economies. These findings point to the highly unequal impacts of the business cycle across worker and economy groups.

Author: C. Fred Bergsten
Publisher: Peterson Institute for International Economics
ISBN: 0881327123
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 456

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In September 1985, emissaries of the world's five leading industrial nations—the United States, Britain, France, Germany, and Japan—secretly gathered at the Plaza Hotel in New York City and unveiled an unprecedented effort to correct the largest set of current account and exchange rate imbalances that had ever threatened the world economy. The Plaza Accord is credited with sharply realigning exchange rates, significantly reducing current account imbalances, and countering protectionist pressures in the United States. But did the Accord provide a foundation for ongoing international financial stability and policy coordination? Or was it simply a unique one-time coincidence of national interests? The Plaza experience continues to inform today's debates about the limits and possibilities of international monetary cooperation. In late 2015, leading policymakers and economists—including those who were involved in the Accord's design, negotiation, and implementation—held a Plaza Retrospective conference at the Baker Institute for Public Policy to evaluate the Accord's legacy and how its collaborative spirit can be applied today. This volume presents their views and analyses to provide guidance for a time when the world again faces the prospect of currency disequilibria, growing imbalances, trade policy reactions, and thus uncertainty for both the global economy and world politics.

Author: Fabian Bornhorst
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475510209
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 39

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Technical Notes and Manuals are produced by IMF departments to expand the dissemination of their technical assistance advice. These papers present general advice and guidance, drawn in part from unpublished technical assistance reports, to a broader audience. This new series was launched in August 2009.

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : International finance
Languages : en
Pages : 38

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Author: Henrik Braconier
Publisher: Nordic Council of Ministers
ISBN: 9789289303682
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 94

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Author: Michael Smitka
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 106

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Author: William Curt Hunter
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262582537
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 650

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A study of asset price bubbles and the implications for preventing financial instability.