Author: Marti Subrahmanyam
Publisher: Now Publishers
ISBN: 9781601989000
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 150
Book Description
Credit Default Swaps: A Survey is the most comprehensive review of all major research domains involving credit default swaps (CDS). CDS have been growing in importance in the global financial markets. However, their role has been hotly debated, in industry and academia, particularly since the credit crisis of 2007-2009. The authors review the extant literature on CDS that has accumulated over the past two decades and divide the survey into seven topics after providing a broad overview in the introduction. The second section traces the historical development of CDS markets and provides an introduction to CDS contract definitions and conventions. The third section discusses the pricing of CDS, from the perspective of no-arbitrage principles, structural, and reduced-form credit risk models. It also summarizes the literature on the determinants of CDS spreads, with a focus on the role of fundamental credit risk factors, liquidity and counterparty risk. The fourth section discusses how the development of the CDS market has affected the characteristics of the bond and equity markets, with an emphasis on market efficiency, price discovery, information flow, and liquidity. Attention is also paid to the CDS-bond basis, the wedge between the pricing of the CDS and its reference bond, and the mispricing between the CDS and the equity market. The fifth section examines the effect of CDS trading on firms' credit and bankruptcy risk, and how it affects corporate financial policy, including bond issuance, capital structure, liquidity management, and corporate governance. The sixth section analyzes how CDS impact the economic incentives of financial intermediaries. The seventh section reviews the growing literature on sovereign CDS and highlights the major differences between the sovereign and corporate CDS markets. The eighth section discusses CDS indices, especially the role of synthetic CDS index products backed by residential mortgage-backed securities during the financial crisis. The authors close with our suggestions for promising future research directions on CDS contracts and markets.
Credit Default Swaps
Author: Marti Subrahmanyam
Publisher: Now Publishers
ISBN: 9781601989000
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 150
Book Description
Credit Default Swaps: A Survey is the most comprehensive review of all major research domains involving credit default swaps (CDS). CDS have been growing in importance in the global financial markets. However, their role has been hotly debated, in industry and academia, particularly since the credit crisis of 2007-2009. The authors review the extant literature on CDS that has accumulated over the past two decades and divide the survey into seven topics after providing a broad overview in the introduction. The second section traces the historical development of CDS markets and provides an introduction to CDS contract definitions and conventions. The third section discusses the pricing of CDS, from the perspective of no-arbitrage principles, structural, and reduced-form credit risk models. It also summarizes the literature on the determinants of CDS spreads, with a focus on the role of fundamental credit risk factors, liquidity and counterparty risk. The fourth section discusses how the development of the CDS market has affected the characteristics of the bond and equity markets, with an emphasis on market efficiency, price discovery, information flow, and liquidity. Attention is also paid to the CDS-bond basis, the wedge between the pricing of the CDS and its reference bond, and the mispricing between the CDS and the equity market. The fifth section examines the effect of CDS trading on firms' credit and bankruptcy risk, and how it affects corporate financial policy, including bond issuance, capital structure, liquidity management, and corporate governance. The sixth section analyzes how CDS impact the economic incentives of financial intermediaries. The seventh section reviews the growing literature on sovereign CDS and highlights the major differences between the sovereign and corporate CDS markets. The eighth section discusses CDS indices, especially the role of synthetic CDS index products backed by residential mortgage-backed securities during the financial crisis. The authors close with our suggestions for promising future research directions on CDS contracts and markets.
Publisher: Now Publishers
ISBN: 9781601989000
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 150
Book Description
Credit Default Swaps: A Survey is the most comprehensive review of all major research domains involving credit default swaps (CDS). CDS have been growing in importance in the global financial markets. However, their role has been hotly debated, in industry and academia, particularly since the credit crisis of 2007-2009. The authors review the extant literature on CDS that has accumulated over the past two decades and divide the survey into seven topics after providing a broad overview in the introduction. The second section traces the historical development of CDS markets and provides an introduction to CDS contract definitions and conventions. The third section discusses the pricing of CDS, from the perspective of no-arbitrage principles, structural, and reduced-form credit risk models. It also summarizes the literature on the determinants of CDS spreads, with a focus on the role of fundamental credit risk factors, liquidity and counterparty risk. The fourth section discusses how the development of the CDS market has affected the characteristics of the bond and equity markets, with an emphasis on market efficiency, price discovery, information flow, and liquidity. Attention is also paid to the CDS-bond basis, the wedge between the pricing of the CDS and its reference bond, and the mispricing between the CDS and the equity market. The fifth section examines the effect of CDS trading on firms' credit and bankruptcy risk, and how it affects corporate financial policy, including bond issuance, capital structure, liquidity management, and corporate governance. The sixth section analyzes how CDS impact the economic incentives of financial intermediaries. The seventh section reviews the growing literature on sovereign CDS and highlights the major differences between the sovereign and corporate CDS markets. The eighth section discusses CDS indices, especially the role of synthetic CDS index products backed by residential mortgage-backed securities during the financial crisis. The authors close with our suggestions for promising future research directions on CDS contracts and markets.
Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus
Author: Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484359623
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 54
Book Description
This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484359623
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 54
Book Description
This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.
Fixed Income Securities
Author: Bruce Tuckman
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 111813396X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 640
Book Description
Fixed income practitioners need to understand the conceptual frameworks of their field; to master its quantitative tool-kit; and to be well-versed in its cash-flow and pricing conventions. Fixed Income Securities, Third Edition by Bruce Tuckman and Angel Serrat is designed to balance these three objectives. The book presents theory without unnecessary abstraction; quantitative techniques with a minimum of mathematics; and conventions at a useful level of detail. The book begins with an overview of global fixed income markets and continues with the fundamentals, namely, arbitrage pricing, interest rates, risk metrics, and term structure models to price contingent claims. Subsequent chapters cover individual markets and securities: repo, rate and bond forwards and futures, interest rate and basis swaps, credit markets, fixed income options, and mortgage-backed-securities. Fixed Income Securities, Third Edition is full of examples, applications, and case studies. Practically every quantitative concept is illustrated through real market data. This practice-oriented approach makes the book particularly useful for the working professional. This third edition is a considerable revision and expansion of the second. Most examples have been updated. The chapters on fixed income options and mortgage-backed securities have been considerably expanded to include a broader range of securities and valuation methodologies. Also, three new chapters have been added: the global overview of fixed income markets; a chapter on corporate bonds and credit default swaps; and a chapter on discounting with bases, which is the foundation for the relatively recent practice of discounting swap cash flows with curves based on money market rates.
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 111813396X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 640
Book Description
Fixed income practitioners need to understand the conceptual frameworks of their field; to master its quantitative tool-kit; and to be well-versed in its cash-flow and pricing conventions. Fixed Income Securities, Third Edition by Bruce Tuckman and Angel Serrat is designed to balance these three objectives. The book presents theory without unnecessary abstraction; quantitative techniques with a minimum of mathematics; and conventions at a useful level of detail. The book begins with an overview of global fixed income markets and continues with the fundamentals, namely, arbitrage pricing, interest rates, risk metrics, and term structure models to price contingent claims. Subsequent chapters cover individual markets and securities: repo, rate and bond forwards and futures, interest rate and basis swaps, credit markets, fixed income options, and mortgage-backed-securities. Fixed Income Securities, Third Edition is full of examples, applications, and case studies. Practically every quantitative concept is illustrated through real market data. This practice-oriented approach makes the book particularly useful for the working professional. This third edition is a considerable revision and expansion of the second. Most examples have been updated. The chapters on fixed income options and mortgage-backed securities have been considerably expanded to include a broader range of securities and valuation methodologies. Also, three new chapters have been added: the global overview of fixed income markets; a chapter on corporate bonds and credit default swaps; and a chapter on discounting with bases, which is the foundation for the relatively recent practice of discounting swap cash flows with curves based on money market rates.
A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks
Author: Thordur Jonasson
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484350545
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 133
Book Description
This paper provides an overview of sovereign debt portfolio risks and discusses various liability management operations (LMOs) and instruments used by public debt managers to mitigate these risks. Debt management strategies analyzed in the context of helping reach debt portfolio targets and attain desired portfolio structures. Also, the paper outlines how LMOs could be integrated into a debt management strategy and serve as policy tools to reduce potential debt portfolio vulnerabilities. Further, the paper presents operational issues faced by debt managers, including the need to develop a risk management framework, interactions of debt management with fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial stability, as well as efficient government bond markets.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484350545
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 133
Book Description
This paper provides an overview of sovereign debt portfolio risks and discusses various liability management operations (LMOs) and instruments used by public debt managers to mitigate these risks. Debt management strategies analyzed in the context of helping reach debt portfolio targets and attain desired portfolio structures. Also, the paper outlines how LMOs could be integrated into a debt management strategy and serve as policy tools to reduce potential debt portfolio vulnerabilities. Further, the paper presents operational issues faced by debt managers, including the need to develop a risk management framework, interactions of debt management with fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial stability, as well as efficient government bond markets.
Sub-National Credit Risk and Sovereign Bailouts
Author: Ms.Eva Jenkner
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484399137
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 29
Book Description
Studies have shown that markets may underprice sub-national governments’ risk on the implicit assumption that these entities would be bailed out by their central government in case of financial difficulties. However, the question of whether sovereigns pay a premium on their own borrowing as a result of (implicitly or explicitly) guaranteeing sub-entities’ debt has been explored only little. We use an event study approach with separate equations for two levels of government to test for a simultaneous increase in sovereign risk premia and decrease in sub-national risk premia—or a de facto transfer of risk from the latter to the former—on the day a sovereign bailout is announced. Using daily financial market data for Spain and its autonomous regions from January 2010 to June 2013, we find support for our risk transfer hypothesis. We estimate that the Spanish sovereign’s spread may have increased by around 70 basis points as a result of the central government’s support for fiscally distressed comunidades autónomas.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484399137
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 29
Book Description
Studies have shown that markets may underprice sub-national governments’ risk on the implicit assumption that these entities would be bailed out by their central government in case of financial difficulties. However, the question of whether sovereigns pay a premium on their own borrowing as a result of (implicitly or explicitly) guaranteeing sub-entities’ debt has been explored only little. We use an event study approach with separate equations for two levels of government to test for a simultaneous increase in sovereign risk premia and decrease in sub-national risk premia—or a de facto transfer of risk from the latter to the former—on the day a sovereign bailout is announced. Using daily financial market data for Spain and its autonomous regions from January 2010 to June 2013, we find support for our risk transfer hypothesis. We estimate that the Spanish sovereign’s spread may have increased by around 70 basis points as a result of the central government’s support for fiscally distressed comunidades autónomas.
The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report
Author: Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission
Publisher: Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN: 1616405414
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 692
Book Description
The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.
Publisher: Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN: 1616405414
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 692
Book Description
The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report, published by the U.S. Government and the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission in early 2011, is the official government report on the United States financial collapse and the review of major financial institutions that bankrupted and failed, or would have without help from the government. The commission and the report were implemented after Congress passed an act in 2009 to review and prevent fraudulent activity. The report details, among other things, the periods before, during, and after the crisis, what led up to it, and analyses of subprime mortgage lending, credit expansion and banking policies, the collapse of companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the federal bailouts of Lehman and AIG. It also discusses the aftermath of the fallout and our current state. This report should be of interest to anyone concerned about the financial situation in the U.S. and around the world.THE FINANCIAL CRISIS INQUIRY COMMISSION is an independent, bi-partisan, government-appointed panel of 10 people that was created to "examine the causes, domestic and global, of the current financial and economic crisis in the United States." It was established as part of the Fraud Enforcement and Recovery Act of 2009. The commission consisted of private citizens with expertise in economics and finance, banking, housing, market regulation, and consumer protection. They examined and reported on "the collapse of major financial institutions that failed or would have failed if not for exceptional assistance from the government."News Dissector DANNY SCHECHTER is a journalist, blogger and filmmaker. He has been reporting on economic crises since the 1980's when he was with ABC News. His film In Debt We Trust warned of the economic meltdown in 2006. He has since written three books on the subject including Plunder: Investigating Our Economic Calamity (Cosimo Books, 2008), and The Crime Of Our Time: Why Wall Street Is Not Too Big to Jail (Disinfo Books, 2011), a companion to his latest film Plunder The Crime Of Our Time. He can be reached online at www.newsdissector.com.
Credit Risk
Author: Darrell Duffie
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400829178
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 415
Book Description
In this book, two of America's leading economists provide the first integrated treatment of the conceptual, practical, and empirical foundations for credit risk pricing and risk measurement. Masterfully applying theory to practice, Darrell Duffie and Kenneth Singleton model credit risk for the purpose of measuring portfolio risk and pricing defaultable bonds, credit derivatives, and other securities exposed to credit risk. The methodological rigor, scope, and sophistication of their state-of-the-art account is unparalleled, and its singularly in-depth treatment of pricing and credit derivatives further illuminates a problem that has drawn much attention in an era when financial institutions the world over are revising their credit management strategies. Duffie and Singleton offer critical assessments of alternative approaches to credit-risk modeling, while highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of current practice. Their approach blends in-depth discussions of the conceptual foundations of modeling with extensive analyses of the empirical properties of such credit-related time series as default probabilities, recoveries, ratings transitions, and yield spreads. Both the "structura" and "reduced-form" approaches to pricing defaultable securities are presented, and their comparative fits to historical data are assessed. The authors also provide a comprehensive treatment of the pricing of credit derivatives, including credit swaps, collateralized debt obligations, credit guarantees, lines of credit, and spread options. Not least, they describe certain enhancements to current pricing and management practices that, they argue, will better position financial institutions for future changes in the financial markets. Credit Risk is an indispensable resource for risk managers, traders or regulators dealing with financial products with a significant credit risk component, as well as for academic researchers and students.
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400829178
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 415
Book Description
In this book, two of America's leading economists provide the first integrated treatment of the conceptual, practical, and empirical foundations for credit risk pricing and risk measurement. Masterfully applying theory to practice, Darrell Duffie and Kenneth Singleton model credit risk for the purpose of measuring portfolio risk and pricing defaultable bonds, credit derivatives, and other securities exposed to credit risk. The methodological rigor, scope, and sophistication of their state-of-the-art account is unparalleled, and its singularly in-depth treatment of pricing and credit derivatives further illuminates a problem that has drawn much attention in an era when financial institutions the world over are revising their credit management strategies. Duffie and Singleton offer critical assessments of alternative approaches to credit-risk modeling, while highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of current practice. Their approach blends in-depth discussions of the conceptual foundations of modeling with extensive analyses of the empirical properties of such credit-related time series as default probabilities, recoveries, ratings transitions, and yield spreads. Both the "structura" and "reduced-form" approaches to pricing defaultable securities are presented, and their comparative fits to historical data are assessed. The authors also provide a comprehensive treatment of the pricing of credit derivatives, including credit swaps, collateralized debt obligations, credit guarantees, lines of credit, and spread options. Not least, they describe certain enhancements to current pricing and management practices that, they argue, will better position financial institutions for future changes in the financial markets. Credit Risk is an indispensable resource for risk managers, traders or regulators dealing with financial products with a significant credit risk component, as well as for academic researchers and students.
Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010
Author: Mr.Udaibir S. Das
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475505531
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 128
Book Description
This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475505531
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 128
Book Description
This paper provides a comprehensive survey of pertinent issues on sovereign debt restructurings, based on a newly constructed database. This is the first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.
The Credit Default Swap Basis
Author: Moorad Choudhry
Publisher: Bloomberg Press
ISBN: 9780470915837
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
An up-to-date resource on the intricacies of the credit default swap basis While credit default swaps and credit derivatives are of great concern to many in the field of finance, the Second Edition of The Credit Default Swap Basis does not directly focus on these issues. It is instead about an aspect of CDS behavior, the basis, which is of importance to all users of CDS products. An understanding of the basis is essential to anyone involved in the credit-risky debt capital markets, whether you're an investor, trader, or broker. The credit default swap basis (the basis) defines the relationship between the cash and synthetic credit markets. Finance professionals need to understand the drivers of the basis in order to better undertake investment and value analysis, and for trading purposes. In this updated Second Edition, author Moorad Choudhry, a market practitioner who has published widely in the field of credit derivatives, explores this dynamic discipline and examines the structural changes in the CDS market, including new settlement mechanisms and contract standardization. Along the way, he describes how basis pricing has changed in the aftermath of the financial crisis and what that change means in regard to overall market and trading opportunities. The only book on basis issues of credit default swaps, it provides practitioners with vital information on valuation, credit risk assessment, and basis trading strategies Addresses structural changes to the market, including the introduction of central clearing houses in the U.S. and Europe and standardization of contracts to reduce disputes about payout settlements Covers the close relationship between the synthetic and cash markets in credit, which manifests itself in the credit default swap basis The Credit Default Swap Basis, Second Edition offers invaluable market insights to all financial professionals seeking a deeper understanding of credit derivatives and fixed income securities.
Publisher: Bloomberg Press
ISBN: 9780470915837
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
An up-to-date resource on the intricacies of the credit default swap basis While credit default swaps and credit derivatives are of great concern to many in the field of finance, the Second Edition of The Credit Default Swap Basis does not directly focus on these issues. It is instead about an aspect of CDS behavior, the basis, which is of importance to all users of CDS products. An understanding of the basis is essential to anyone involved in the credit-risky debt capital markets, whether you're an investor, trader, or broker. The credit default swap basis (the basis) defines the relationship between the cash and synthetic credit markets. Finance professionals need to understand the drivers of the basis in order to better undertake investment and value analysis, and for trading purposes. In this updated Second Edition, author Moorad Choudhry, a market practitioner who has published widely in the field of credit derivatives, explores this dynamic discipline and examines the structural changes in the CDS market, including new settlement mechanisms and contract standardization. Along the way, he describes how basis pricing has changed in the aftermath of the financial crisis and what that change means in regard to overall market and trading opportunities. The only book on basis issues of credit default swaps, it provides practitioners with vital information on valuation, credit risk assessment, and basis trading strategies Addresses structural changes to the market, including the introduction of central clearing houses in the U.S. and Europe and standardization of contracts to reduce disputes about payout settlements Covers the close relationship between the synthetic and cash markets in credit, which manifests itself in the credit default swap basis The Credit Default Swap Basis, Second Edition offers invaluable market insights to all financial professionals seeking a deeper understanding of credit derivatives and fixed income securities.
The Fundamental Determinants of Credit Default Risk for European Large Complex Financial Institutions
Author: Jiri Podpiera
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455200573
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
Book Description
This paper attempts to identify the fundamental variables that drive the credit default swaps during the initial phase of distress in selected European Large Complex Financial Institutions (LCFIs). It uses yearly data over 2004 - 08 for 29 European LCFIs. The results from a dynamic panel data estimator show that LCFIs’ business models, earnings potential, and economic uncertainty (represented by market expectations about the future risks of a particular LCFI and market views on prospects for economic growth) are among the most significant determinants of credit risk. The findings of the paper are broadly consistent with those of the literature on bank failure, where the determinants of the latter include the entire CAMELS structure - that is, Capital Adequacy, Asset Quality, Management Quality, Earnings Potential, Liquidity, and Sensitivity to Market Risk. By establishing a link between the financial and market fundamentals of LCFIs and their CDS spreads, the paper offers a potential tool for fundamentals-based vulnerability and early warning system for LCFIs.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455200573
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34
Book Description
This paper attempts to identify the fundamental variables that drive the credit default swaps during the initial phase of distress in selected European Large Complex Financial Institutions (LCFIs). It uses yearly data over 2004 - 08 for 29 European LCFIs. The results from a dynamic panel data estimator show that LCFIs’ business models, earnings potential, and economic uncertainty (represented by market expectations about the future risks of a particular LCFI and market views on prospects for economic growth) are among the most significant determinants of credit risk. The findings of the paper are broadly consistent with those of the literature on bank failure, where the determinants of the latter include the entire CAMELS structure - that is, Capital Adequacy, Asset Quality, Management Quality, Earnings Potential, Liquidity, and Sensitivity to Market Risk. By establishing a link between the financial and market fundamentals of LCFIs and their CDS spreads, the paper offers a potential tool for fundamentals-based vulnerability and early warning system for LCFIs.