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Author: Nick Chater Publisher: OUP Oxford ISBN: 0199216096 Category : Philosophy Languages : en Pages : 535
Book Description
The Probabilistic Mind is a follow-up to the influential and highly cited Rational Models of Cognition (OUP, 1998). It brings together developmetns in understanding how, and how far, high-level cognitive processes can be understood in rational terms, and particularly using probabilistic Bayesian methods.
Author: Nick Chater Publisher: OUP Oxford ISBN: 0199216096 Category : Philosophy Languages : en Pages : 535
Book Description
The Probabilistic Mind is a follow-up to the influential and highly cited Rational Models of Cognition (OUP, 1998). It brings together developmetns in understanding how, and how far, high-level cognitive processes can be understood in rational terms, and particularly using probabilistic Bayesian methods.
Author: Mike Oaksford Publisher: Oxford University Press ISBN: 0198524498 Category : Philosophy Languages : en Pages : 342
Book Description
For almost 2,500 years, the Western concept of what is to be human has been dominated by the idea that the mind is the seat of reason - humans are, almost by definition, the rational animal. In this text a more radical suggestion for explaining these puzzling aspects of human reasoning is put forward.
Author: Egan J. Chernoff Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 940077155X Category : Education Languages : en Pages : 746
Book Description
This volume provides a necessary, current and extensive analysis of probabilistic thinking from a number of mathematicians, mathematics educators, and psychologists. The work of 58 contributing authors, investigating probabilistic thinking across the globe, is encapsulated in 6 prefaces, 29 chapters and 6 commentaries. Ultimately, the four main perspectives presented in this volume (Mathematics and Philosophy, Psychology, Stochastics and Mathematics Education) are designed to represent probabilistic thinking in a greater context.
Author: Raymond S. Nickerson Publisher: Psychology Press ISBN: 113561461X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 798
Book Description
Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.
Author: Gaurav Garg Publisher: Gaurav Garg ISBN: Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 151
Book Description
In a world obsessed with certainty, this book dares to embrace the unknown. "Dancing with Uncertainty" isn't just a catchy title—it's a revolutionary approach to navigating the complexities of modern life. Within these pages, you'll discover how to harness the power of probabilistic thinking to make better decisions, manage risks, and find opportunities where others see only chaos. From the boardroom to the bedroom, from financial investments to personal relationships, this book will transform the way you view the world. Key concepts you'll explore include: The Probabilistic Mindset: Learn to see life as a series of probabilities rather than absolutes. The 60/40 Rule: A practical guide to decision-making in uncertain situations. Expected Value Calculations: Maximize your 'life ROI' by understanding the true value of your choices. The Monte Carlo Method: Simulate multiple futures to prepare for any outcome. Bayesian Thinking: Update your beliefs intelligently as new information comes to light. But this isn't just a dry textbook. It's filled with real-life examples, practical exercises, and even a dash of humor. You'll learn from poker players, stock traders, meteorologists, and everyday people who've used probabilistic thinking to achieve extraordinary results. "In an uncertain world, the only mistake is to be unprepared. This book is your guide to turning uncertainty into your greatest advantage." Whether you're a CEO making high-stakes decisions, a student planning your future, or simply someone looking to navigate life with more confidence, "Dancing with Uncertainty" offers a new lens through which to view the world. So, are you ready to embrace the power of probability? To see opportunities where others see only risk? To dance with uncertainty and lead a richer, more calculated life? Open this book, and take your first step into a larger, more probabilistic world.
Author: Shane Parrish Publisher: Penguin ISBN: 0593719972 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 209
Book Description
Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage.
Author: Kenji Doya Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 026204238X Category : Bayesian statistical decision theory Languages : en Pages : 341
Book Description
Experimental and theoretical neuroscientists use Bayesian approaches to analyze the brain mechanisms of perception, decision-making, and motor control.
Author: H. Fischbein Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 9401018588 Category : Psychology Languages : en Pages : 221
Book Description
About a year ago I promised my friend Fischbein a preface to his book of which I knew the French manuscript. Now with the printer's proofs under my eyes I like the book even better than I did then, because of, and influenced by, new experiences in the meantime, and fresh thoughts that crossed my mind. Have I been influenced by what I remembered from the manuscript? If so, it must have happened unconsciously. But of course, what struck me in this work a year ago, struck a responsive chord in my own mind. In the past, mathematics teaching theory has strongly been influenced by a view on mathematics as a heap of concepts, and on learning mathematics as concepts attainment. Mathematics teaching practice has been jeopardised by this theoretical approach, which in its most dangerous form expresses itself as a radical atomism. To concepts attainment Fischbein opposes acquisition of intuitions. In my own publications I avoided the word "intuition" because of the variety of its meanings across languages. For some time I have used the term "constitution of mathematical objects", which I think means the same as Fischbein's "acquisition of intuitions" - indeed as I view it, constituting a mental object precedes its conceptualising, and under this viewpoint I tried to observe mathematical activities of young children.
Author: Tony Cheng Publisher: Taylor & Francis ISBN: 1003827837 Category : Philosophy Languages : en Pages : 314
Book Description
This book brings together perspectives on predictive processing and expected experience. It features contributions from an interdisciplinary group of authors specializing in philosophy, psychology, cognitive science, and neuroscience. Predictive processing, or predictive coding, is the theory that the brain constantly minimizes the error of its predictions based on the sensory input it receives from the world. This process of prediction error minimization has numerous implications for different forms of conscious and perceptual experience. The chapters in this volume explore these implications and various phenomena related to them. The contributors tackle issues related to precision estimation, sensory prediction, probabilistic perception, and attention, as well as the role predictive processing plays in emotion, action, psychotic experience, anosognosia, and gut complex. Expected Experiences will be of interest to scholars and advanced students in philosophy, psychology, and cognitive science working on issues related to predictive processing and coding.
Author: Joel Spencer Publisher: SIAM ISBN: 9781611970074 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 98
Book Description
This update of the 1987 title of the same name is an examination of what is currently known about the probabilistic method, written by one of its principal developers. Based on the notes from Spencer's 1986 series of ten lectures, this new edition contains an additional lecture: The Janson inequalities. These inequalities allow accurate approximation of extremely small probabilities. A new algorithmic approach to the Lovasz Local Lemma, attributed to Jozsef Beck, has been added to Lecture 8, as well. Throughout the monograph, Spencer retains the informal style of his original lecture notes and emphasizes the methodology, shunning the more technical "best possible" results in favor of clearer exposition. The book is not encyclopedic--it contains only those examples that clearly display the methodology. The probabilistic method is a powerful tool in graph theory, combinatorics, and theoretical computer science. It allows one to prove the existence of objects with certain properties (e.g., colorings) by showing that an appropriately defined random object has positive probability of having those properties.
Author: Nick Chater
Author: Nick Chater
Author: Mike Oaksford
Author: Egan J. Chernoff
Author: Raymond S. Nickerson
Author: Gaurav Garg
Author: Shane Parrish
Author: Kenji Doya
Author: H. Fischbein
Author: Tony Cheng
Author: Joel Spencer