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Author: Mr. Tobias Adrian Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 87
Book Description
We propose the conditional volatility of GDP spanned by financial factors as a “Volatility Financial Conditions Index” (VFCI) and show it is closely tied to the market price of risk. The VFCI exhibits superior explanatory power for stock and bond risk premia compared to other FCIs. We use a variety of identification strategies and instruments to demonstrate robust causal relationships between the VFCI and macroeconomic aggregates: a tightening of financial conditions as measured by the VFCI leads to a persistent contraction of output and triggers an immediate easing of monetary policy. Conversely, contractionary monetary policy shocks cause tighter financial conditions.
Author: Mr. Tobias Adrian Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 87
Book Description
We propose the conditional volatility of GDP spanned by financial factors as a “Volatility Financial Conditions Index” (VFCI) and show it is closely tied to the market price of risk. The VFCI exhibits superior explanatory power for stock and bond risk premia compared to other FCIs. We use a variety of identification strategies and instruments to demonstrate robust causal relationships between the VFCI and macroeconomic aggregates: a tightening of financial conditions as measured by the VFCI leads to a persistent contraction of output and triggers an immediate easing of monetary policy. Conversely, contractionary monetary policy shocks cause tighter financial conditions.
Author: Andrea Deghi Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513525832 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 47
Book Description
This paper predicts downside risks to future real house price growth (house-prices-at-risk or HaR) in 32 advanced and emerging market economies. Through a macro-model and predictive quantile regressions, we show that current house price overvaluation, excessive credit growth, and tighter financial conditions jointly forecast higher house-prices-at-risk up to three years ahead. House-prices-at-risk help predict future growth at-risk and financial crises. We also investigate and propose policy solutions for preventing the identified risks. We find that overall, a tightening of macroprudential policy is the most effective at curbing downside risks to house prices, whereas a loosening of conventional monetary policy reduces downside risks only in advanced economies and only in the short-term.
Author: Giovanni Borraccia Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 58
Book Description
We develop a new measure of financial conditions (FCs) that targets the growth of financial liabilities using the partial least square methodology. We then estimate financial condition indexes (FCIs) across European economies, both at the aggregate and sectoral levels. We decompose the changes in FCs into several factors including credit availability and costs, price of risk, policy stance, and funding constraints. Our results show that FCs loosened during the pandemic thanks to policy support but started to tighten significantly since mid-2021. Using the inverse probability weighting method over the sample period from 2000 to 2023, we find that a shift from a neutral to a tight FCI regime such as the ongoing episode for most European countries will on average lower output and inflation by 2.2 percent and 0.7 percentage points respectively and increase unemployment by 0.3 percentage points over a three-year horizon.
Author: Hites Ahir Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 132
Book Description
This paper uses text analysis to construct a continuous financial stress index (FSI) for 110 countries over each quarter during the period 1967-2018. It relies on a computer algorithm along with human expert oversight and is thus easy to update. The new indicator has a larger country and time coverage and higher frequency than similar measures focusing on advanced economies. And it complements existing binary chronologies in that it can assess the severity of financial crises. We use the indicator to assess the impact of financial stress on the economy using both country- and firm-level data. Our main findings are fivefold: i) consistent with existing literature, we show an economically significant and persistent relationship between financial stress and output; ii) the effect is larger in emerging markets and developing economies and (iii) for higher levels of financial stress; iv) we deal with simultaneous causality by constructing a novel instrument—financial stress originating from other countries—using information from the text analysis, and show that, while there is clear evidence that financial stress harms economic activities, OLS estimates tend to overestimate the magnitude of this effect; (iv) we confirm the presence of an exogenous effect of financial stress through a difference-in-differences exercise and show that effects are larger for firms that are more financially constrained and less profitable.
Author: Jagjit S. Chadha Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1107044553 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 571
Book Description
State-of-the-art research from academics and policymakers on the role of and challenges to monetary policy during the ongoing financial crisis.
Author: Hyun Song Shin Publisher: OUP Oxford ISBN: 0191613835 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 205
Book Description
This book presents the Clarendon Lectures in Finance by one of the leading exponents of financial booms and crises. Hyun Song Shin's work has shed light on the global financial crisis and he has been a central figure in the policy debates. The paradox of the global financial crisis is that it erupted in an era when risk management was at the core of the management of the most sophisticated financial institutions. This book explains why. The severity of the crisis is explained by financial development that put marketable assets at the heart of the financial system, and the increased sophistication of financial institutions that held and traded the assets. Step by step, the lectures build an analytical framework that take the reader through the economics behind the fluctuations in the price of risk and the boom-bust dynamics that follow. The book examines the role played by market-to-market accounting rules and securitisation in amplifying the crisis, and draws lessons for financial architecture, financial regulation and monetary policy. This book will be of interest to all serious students of economics and finance who want to delve beneath the outward manifestations to grasp the underlying dynamics of the boom-bust cycle in a modern financial system - a system where banking and capital market developments have become inseparable.
Author: Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484397010 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 39
Book Description
The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor the evolution of risks to economic activity over time. By using GaR analysis, policymakers can quantify the likelihood of risk scenarios, which would serve as a basis for preemptive action. This paper offers practical guidance on how to conduct GaR analysis and draws lessons from country case studies. It also discusses an Excel-based GaR tool developed to support the IMF’s bilateral surveillance efforts.
Author: Carl Chiarella Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1135984506 Category : Biography & Autobiography Languages : en Pages : 513
Book Description
This important new book from a group of Keynesian, but nonetheless technically-oriented economists explores one of the dominant paradigms in financial economics: the ‘intertemporal general equilibrium approach’.
Author: Tobias Adrian Publisher: DIANE Publishing ISBN: 1437930905 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 35
Book Description
This is a print on demand edition of a hard to find publication. The financial crisis of 2007-09 highlighted the changing role of financial institutions and the growing importance of the ¿shadow banking system,¿ which grew out of the securitization of assets and the integration of banking with capital market developments. In a market-based financial system, banking and capital market developments are inseparable, and funding conditions are tied closely to fluctuations in the leverage of market-based financial intermediaries. This report describes the changing nature of financial intermediation in the market-based financial system, charts the course of the recent financial crisis, and outlines the policy responses that have been implemented by the Fed. Reserve and other central banks. Charts and tables.
Author: Mr. Tobias Adrian
Author: Mr. Tobias Adrian
Author: Andrea Deghi
Author: Giovanni Borraccia
Author: Hites Ahir
Author: Jagjit S. Chadha
Author: Hyun Song Shin
Author: Mr.Ananthakrishnan Prasad
Author: Carl Chiarella
Author: Tobias Adrian
Author: John H. Cochrane