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Author: Jan Gottschalk Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 145520143X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 47
Book Description
We develop a model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of a scaling-up of aid and assess the implications of different policy responses. The model features key structural characteristics of low-income countries, including varying degrees of public investment efficiency and a learning-by-doing (LBD) externality that captures Dutch disease effects. On the policy front, it distinguishes between spending the aid, which is controlled by the fiscal authority, and absorbing the aid - financing a higher current account deficit - which is influenced by the central bank's reserve accumulation policies. We calibrate the model to Uganda and run several experiments. We find that a policy mix that results in full spending and absorption of aid can generate temporary demand and real exchange rate appreciation pressures, but also have a positive effect on real GDP in the medium term, through higher public capital. Full spending with partial absorption, on the other hand, may stem appreciation pressures but can also induce adverse medium-term real GDP effects, through private sector crowding out. When aid is very inefficiently invested and there are strong LBD externalities, aid can be harmful, and partial absorption policies may be justified. But in this case, a welfare improving solution is to defer spending or - even better if possible - raise its efficiency.
Author: Jan Gottschalk Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 145520143X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 47
Book Description
We develop a model to analyze the macroeconomic effects of a scaling-up of aid and assess the implications of different policy responses. The model features key structural characteristics of low-income countries, including varying degrees of public investment efficiency and a learning-by-doing (LBD) externality that captures Dutch disease effects. On the policy front, it distinguishes between spending the aid, which is controlled by the fiscal authority, and absorbing the aid - financing a higher current account deficit - which is influenced by the central bank's reserve accumulation policies. We calibrate the model to Uganda and run several experiments. We find that a policy mix that results in full spending and absorption of aid can generate temporary demand and real exchange rate appreciation pressures, but also have a positive effect on real GDP in the medium term, through higher public capital. Full spending with partial absorption, on the other hand, may stem appreciation pressures but can also induce adverse medium-term real GDP effects, through private sector crowding out. When aid is very inefficiently invested and there are strong LBD externalities, aid can be harmful, and partial absorption policies may be justified. But in this case, a welfare improving solution is to defer spending or - even better if possible - raise its efficiency.
Author: Yongzheng Yang Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 9781589065055 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 84
Book Description
Over the next decade, African countries are expected to be the largest beneficiaries of increased donor aid, which is intended to improve their prospects for achieving the Millennium Development Goals. This handbook will help these countries assess the macroeconomic implications of increased aid and respond to the associated policy challenges. The handbook is directed at policymakers, practicing economists in African countries, and the staffs of international financial institutions and donor agencies who participate in preparing medium-term strategies for African countries, including in the context of poverty reduction strategy papers. It provides five main guidelines for developing scaling-up scenarios to help countries identify important policy issues involved in using higher aid flows effectively: to absorb as much aid as possible, to boost growth in the short to medium term, to promote good governance and reduce corruption, to prepare an exit strategy should aid levels decrease, and to regularly reassess the policy mix.
Author: Yongzheng Yang Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ISBN: 9781451861983 Category : Languages : en Pages : 70
Book Description
This paper surveys the economic literature on the scaling-up of aid to Africa. It provides a checklist of issues that need to be considered when preparing a long term macroeconomic projection for a country involving the assumption of a significant increase in aid. Such scaling-up scenarios are most likely to be developed in the context of a country's efforts to achieve the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) with the support of the international donor community. The paper stresses that when preparing a scaling-up scenario it is critical to have a detailed understanding of the likely use of additional aid flows.
Author: Yongzheng Yang Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451949677 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 80
Book Description
Over the next decade, African countries are expected to be the largest beneficiaries of increased donor aid, which is intended to improve their prospects for achieving the Millennium Development Goals. This handbook will help these countries assess the macroeconomic implications of increased aid and respond to the associated policy challenges. the handbook is directed at policymakers, practicing economists in African countries, and the staffs of international financial institutions and donor agencies who participate in preparing medium-term strategies for African countries, including in the context of poverty reduction strategy papers. It provides five main guidelines for developing scaling-up scenarios to help countries identify important policy issues involved in using higher aid flows effectively: to absorb as much aid as possible, to boost growth in the short to medium term, to promote good governance and reduce corruption, to prepare an exit strategy should aid levels decrease, and to regularly reassess the policy mix.
Author: Justin Yifu Lin Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1316943216 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 281
Book Description
Developing countries have for decades been trying to catch up with the industrialized high-income countries, but only a few have succeeded. Historically, structural transformation has been a powerful engine of growth and job creation. Traditional development aid is inadequate to address the bottlenecks for structural transformation, and is hence ineffective. In this book, Justin Yifu Lin and Yan Wang use the theoretical foundations of New Structural Economics to examine South-South development aid and cooperation from the angle of structural transformation. By studying the successful economic transformation of countries such as China and South Korea through 'multiple win' solutions based on comparative advantages and economy of scale, and by presenting new ideas and different perspectives from emerging market economies such as Brazil, India and other BRICS countries, they bring a new narrative to broaden the ongoing discussions of post-2015 development aid and cooperation as well as the definitions of aid and cooperation.
Author: Ioana Moldovan Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484376420 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 66
Book Description
A low-income country such as Haiti that confronts an environment of diminishing aid inflows must assess tradeoffs among the available policy options: spending cuts, monetization, sales of debt, or use of foreign reserves. To provide the analytical tools for this task, the paper draws from a set of DSGE models recently developed to evaluate policy choices in low-income countries for which external aid flows represent an important revenue source. Two simplified stylized variations of the main model are used to gain intuition and initially assess the trdeaoffs. Subsequenctly a full-scale small open economy DSGE model, calibrated to match conditions in Haiti and in similar low-income countries, is employed. Several key results are common to all model versions. While sales of foreign exchange reserves can compensate for the loss of aid inflows, this strategy is not sustainable. The remaining policy choices entail larger welfare costs, involving lower consumption levels and real depreciation. The results suggest that a mixture of spending cuts and depreciation is the best strategy, when use of foreign reserves is constrained.
Author: International Working Group of Sovereign Wealth Funds Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498334113 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
In September 2007, the UN Secretary General launched the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) Africa Steering and Working Groups. The Steering Group brings together the leaders of multilateral institutions to identify practical steps needed for Africa to achieve the MDGs. The Managing Director of the IMF is a member of the Steering Group. The Working Group supports the Steering Group and is comprised of thematic groups in education, agriculture, health, infrastructure and trade facilitation, statistics, aid predictability, and MDG operationalization at the country level. The following three notes assess the macroeconomic implications of the spending of scaled-up aid to Benin, Niger, and Togo in line with that promised by the G-8 at Gleneagles, Scotland in 2005.
Author: Anna Ter-Martirosyan Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475554680 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 61
Book Description
External Assessments in Special Cases presents the pilot External Balances Assessment methodology developed by IMF staff for estimating current account and exchange rate gaps for a group of advanced and emerging market economies, and discusses modifications to take account of special cases. Different approaches to external assessments for countries with special circumstances are evaluated, and some tools presented that could be used to inform sound judgment on the part of those conducting such assessments.
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475505949 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 114
Book Description
This 2011 Article IV Consultation and the Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility for Burkina Faso highlights that the authorities have maintained fiscal consolidation efforts while mitigating the impact of exogenous shocks. Executive Directors have welcomed the authorities’ sustained implementation of sound policies and structural reforms, which has contributed to robust economic growth, low inflation, and a broadly favorable external position. Directors have encouraged the authorities to maintain fiscal discipline within the context of a medium-term fiscal framework while increasing investment and social spending.
Author: Mr.Thomson Fontaine Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 146234349X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 59
Book Description
The Southern African Customs Union (SACU) is facing its biggest challenge in its 100 years of existence. The global economic crisis has significantly reduced its revenue outlook, which is having a disproportionate impact on its smaller member countries, and which calls for an appropriate policy response. This paper discusses specifically the implications for Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland, and provides recommendations regarding the proper fiscal response by these countries to the decline in SACU revenue.
Author: Jan Gottschalk
Author: Jan Gottschalk
Author: Yongzheng Yang
Author: Yongzheng Yang
Author: Yongzheng Yang
Author: Justin Yifu Lin
Author: Ioana Moldovan
Author: International Working Group of Sovereign Wealth Funds
Author: Anna Ter-Martirosyan
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: Mr.Thomson Fontaine