The Influence of the Sea Surface Temperature on the Interannual Variability and Potential Predictability of the Mean Seasonal Atmospheric Conditions PDF Download

Author: Elisabeth Viktor
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Author: Elisabeth Viktor
Publisher:
ISBN: 9780494759615
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 030915183X
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 192

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Book Description
More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.

Author: J. Shukla
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642769608
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 344

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Book Description
It has been known for some time that the behavior of the short-term fluctuations of the earth's atmosphere resembles that of a chaotic non-linear dynamical system, and that the day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. However, it has also been found that the interactions of the atmosphere with the underlying oceans and the land surfaces can produce fluctuations whose time scales are much longer than the limits of deterministic prediction of weather. It is, therefore, natural to ask whether it is possible that the seasonal and longer time averages of climate fluctuations can be predicted with sufficient skill to be beneficial for social and economic applications, even though the details of the day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. The main objective of the workshop was to address this question by assessing the current state of knowledge on predictability of seasonal and interannual climate variability and to investigate various possibilities for its prediction.

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309388805
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 351

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As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.

Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309060982
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 161

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Society today may be more vulnerable to global-scale, long-term, climate change than ever before. Even without any human influence, past records show that climate can be expected to continue to undergo considerable change over decades to centuries. Measures for adaption and mitigation will call for policy decisions based on a sound scientific foundation. Better understanding and prediction of climate variations can be achieved most efficiently through a nationally recognized "dec-cen" science plan. This book articulates the scientific issues that must be addressed to advance us efficiently toward that understanding and outlines the data collection and modeling needed.

Author: Julián Villamayor
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3030203271
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 238

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In this book the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) patterns of decadal-to-multidecadal variability observed and simulated by 17 general circulation models (GCMs) are analyzed. Furthermore, their impact on precipitation in West Africa and South America and the atmospheric mechanisms involved are assessed. Through this analysis, the effect of external forcings on these impacts and the relative contribution of decadal-to-multidecadal variability patterns of SST to precipitation are presented in depth. Finally, a humid period in the West African region of the Sahel during the 19th century, previously little documented, is analyzed using an atmospheric GCM. The monsoons of West Africa and South America have shown changes in the timescales of a few decades. Previous work suggests a relationship with patterns of decadal-to-multidecadal variability of SST, such as global warming and the Atlantic and Pacific variability. However, the dynamics underlying this relationship and its simulation by current GCMs had not been addressed in a consistent manner. This is the main motivation of this book. The results of this book not only represent a great step forward in our understanding of the changes in the precipitation regimes of the studied regions, but they can also be of great help for the improvement of decadal prediction systems and the associated social consequences.

Author: Ben P. Kirtman
Publisher: Elsevier Inc. Chapters
ISBN: 0128058730
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 49

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Book Description
This chapter summarizes the scientific basis for and the current status of seasonal-to-interannual prediction with particular emphasis on the role of the tropical oceans. The first part of the chapter focuses on oceanic sources of predictability in the tropical Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. Seasonal-to-interannual predictability issues in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics are also discussed. Mechanisms that limit predictability, particularly for ENSO, are highlighted. The second part of the chapter describes the forecast quality and procedures in practice today. Finally, the concluding remarks identify some outstanding challenges.

Author: Marcelo Barreiro
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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This dissertation aims at understanding ocean-atmosphere interactions in the Atlantic basin, and how this coupling may lead to increased climate predictability on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. Two regions are studied: the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ), and the tropical Atlantic. We studied the SACZ during austral summer and separated its variability into forced and internal components. This was done by applying a signal-to-noise optimization procedure to an ensemble of integrations of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3) forced with observed Sea Surface Temperature (SST). The analysis yielded two dominant responses: (1) a response to local Atlantic SST consisting of a dipole-like structure in precipitation close to the coast of South America; (2) a response to Pacific SST which manifests mainly in the upper-level circulation consisting of a northeastward shift of the SACZ during El Niño events. The land portion of the SACZ was found to be primarily dominated by internal variability, thereby having limited potential predictability at seasonal time scales. We studied two aspects of tropical Atlantic Variability (TAV). First, we investigated the effect of extratropical variability on the gradient mode. We found that the intensive Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter variability can play a pre-conditioning role in the onset of the interhemispheric anomalies in the deep tropics during boreal spring. This SH influence on TAV is contrasted with its northern counterpart that primarily comes from the North Atlantic Oscillation during boreal winter. Second, we explored the importance of ocean dynamics in the predictability of TAV. We used the CCM3 coupled to a slab ocean as a tier-one prediction system. The ocean processes are included as a statistical correction that parameterizes the heat transport due to anomalous linear ocean dynamics. The role of ocean dynamics was studied by comparing prediction runs with and without the correction. We showed that in the corrected region the corrected model outperformed the non-corrected one particularly at long lead times. Furthermore, when the model was initialized with global initial conditions, tropical Atlantic SST anomalies are skillfully predicted for lead times of up to six months. As result, the corrected model showed high skill in predicting rainfall in the ITCZ during boreal spring.

Author: Andrew Robertson
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 012811715X
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 588

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Book Description
The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting: Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction is an ideal reference for researchers and practitioners across the range of disciplines involved in the science, modeling, forecasting and application of this new frontier in sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction. It provides an accessible, yet rigorous, introduction to the scientific principles and sources of predictability through the unique challenges of numerical simulation and forecasting with state-of-science modeling codes and supercomputers. Additional coverage includes the prospects for developing applications to trigger early action decisions to lessen weather catastrophes, minimize costly damage, and optimize operator decisions. The book consists of a set of contributed chapters solicited from experts and leaders in the fields of S2S predictability science, numerical modeling, operational forecasting, and developing application sectors. The introduction and conclusion, written by the co-editors, provides historical perspective, unique synthesis and prospects, and emerging opportunities in this exciting, complex and interdisciplinary field. - Contains contributed chapters from leaders and experts in sub-seasonal to seasonal science, forecasting and applications - Provides a one-stop shop for graduate students, academic and applied researchers, and practitioners in an emerging and interdisciplinary field - Offers a synthesis of the state of S2S science through the use of concrete examples, enabling potential users of S2S forecasts to quickly grasp the potential for application in their own decision-making - Includes a broad set of topics, illustrated with graphic examples, that highlight interdisciplinary linkages