Impact of China's Slowdown on the Asia Pacific Region PDF Download

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Languages : en
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Author: Tomoo Inoue
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 40

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An export-oriented development strategy fostered the Asia Paci?c region?s economic success, making it the fastest growing region in the world. In recent years, despite waning demand from the crisis-hit Western economies, the accelerating demand from China boosted intraregional trade in Asia. Although China?s Asian trading partners bene?t from increasing exports to China, this stronger linkage with China has made them more vulnerable to the risk of a Chinese slowdown. This paper examines the impact of a negative Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) shock on Asian economies by employing the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model, using the dataset through the third quarter of 2014 for 33 countries. The analysis finds that a negative Chinese GDP shock impacts commodity exporters, such as Indonesia, to the greatest extent, re?ecting both demand and terms of trade shocks. Export-dependent countries in the East Asian production cycle, such as Japan, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand, are also severely a?ected. The analysis also finds that a negative shock to China?s real GDP would not only have an adverse e?ect on the price of crude oil, as some previous studies have also shown, but also on the prices of metals and agricultural products. The study also investigates the impact of a potential negative shock to the real GDP of the United States on Asian countries, and determines that although the U.S. economy has a larger in?uence on Asian economies than China?s economy, the Asian countries are more exposed to China than ever through increased economic ties.

Author: Rajiv Biswas
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137441895
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 403

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Asian Megatrends assesses the key drivers impacting Asia over the next two decades. The rise of China is transforming the Asia-Pacific, as China’s economic and military might increasingly reverberates throughout the region. India and Indonesia are also rising Asian powers that are changing the shape of the Asian economic landscape. The rapid growth of emerging Asian consumer markets is becoming an increasingly important growth engine for the world economy and for global multinationals. However, Asia faces tremendous economic and social challenges over the long-term, including the rapid growth of Asian megacities and severe environmental problems due to climate change, water crises and pollution. Geopolitical tensions have also been escalating in the Asia-Pacific due to territorial disputes in the South China Sea and the East China Sea, increasing the risk of a regional arms race and military confrontation. Asian Megatrends is an essential read for government officials and corporate executives wishing to understand the rapidly changing risk landscape in Asia.

Author: Aman Saggu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 11

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China has grown to become an economic powerhouse and engine of global demand. However, China's projected GDP growth rates are now anticipated to remain below 7% per annum over the next five years. This issue of Trade Insights examines how the 'new normal' of lower economic growth in China will impact on the prospects for trade in the Asia-Pacific region. Compared to the hypothetical scenario that China's economic growth returns to pre-crisis levels within the next five years (by 2019), forecasts show that China's 'new normal' (7% p.a.) would lead to a slowdown in real total Asia-Pacific trade growth from 7.0% to 5.9% by 2019.

Author: James William Morley
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317472799
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 409

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A thoroughly revised and updated edition of the highly regarded 1993 book "Driven by Growth", this work presents the political-economic evolution of the Asia-Pacific countries, with overviews of the impact of economic development on political change. This new edition now includes chapters on Burma and Vietnam. New authors have been added and all the original chapters have been revised.

Author: Wei-Chiao Huang
Publisher: W.E. Upjohn Institute
ISBN: 0880996323
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 164

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This book provides the perspectives of a group of noted China experts on how China’s economic expansion and internal reforms are impacting its neighbors in the Pacific region as well as the United States and the rest of the world. It will serve as a source for anticipating and understanding the political and economic developments occurring in China for years to come. Contributors include Murray Scot Tanner, Barry J. Naughton, Wing Thye Woo, Mary E. Lovely and Yang Liang, Guanzhong James Wen, and Xiaodong Zhu.

Author: Wang Jisi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 294

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The prospect of a new, rapidly rising China poses both opportunities and challenges for regional community building in Asia Pacific. In this book, intellectual leaders from the region present their perspectives on China's development. Four chapters by Chinese authors analyze the domestic dynamics related to the country's political and economic development as well as its external economic and political/security relationships. Contributors from Japan, Korea, member-countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and Australia/New Zealand cover the growing political influence of China in the region, its influence on security in the region, and the implications of China's continuing economic growth. Five final chapters examine China's regional strategy toward Asia Pacific, Japan-China cooperation on regional community building, taking a greater role in regional security arrangements and the regional economic order, and the cultural implications for the region of the rise of China. Contributors include Yang Guangbin (Renmin University, Japan), Men Honghua (Central Party School, China), Wang Rongjun (Chinese Academy of Social Science), Ni Feng (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences), Takahara Akio (Rikkyo University, Japan), Ohashi Hideo (Senshu University, Japan), Lee Geun, (Seoul National University, Korea), Jwa Sung-Hee (Korea Economic Research Institute), Morada Noel (Institute for Strategic and Development Studies, Philippines), Mari Pangestu (former executive director, Center for Strategic and International Studies), Greg Austin, (European Institute for Asian Studies, Brussels, and Australian National University), Jusuf Wanandi (Center for Strategic and International Studies, Indonesia), Chia Siow Yue (Singapore Institute of International Affairs and EADN), and Wang Gungwu, (East Asian Institute, Singapore).

Author: C. H. Chai
Publisher: Nova Biomedical Books
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 406

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Eighteen papers from a June 1996 conference on China and the Asian Pacific Economy held in Brisbane, Australia--presented here in revised form--consider the possible future roles of the Chinese economy in the Asia Pacific region. The contributions place the Chinese economy in the context of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) process, and propose that the integration of the economies of China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan (the so-called Greater China phenomenon) has resulted in a Chinese emphasis on the northern part of APEC. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

Author: Patrick Blagrave
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475539460
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 18

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Using a panel vector autoregression and a novel measure of export-intensity-adjusted final demand, this note studies spillovers from China’s economic transition on export growth in 46 advanced and emerging market economies. The analysis suggests that a 1 percentage point shock to China’s final demand growth reduces the average country’s export growth by 0.1–0.2 percentage point. The impact is largest in Emerging Asia, where an export-growth-accounting exercise suggests that China’s economic transition has reduced average export growth rates by 1 percentage point since early 2014. Other countries linked to China’s manufacturing sector, as well as commodity exporters, are also significantly affected. This suggests that trading partners need to adjust to an environment of weaker external demand as China completes its transition to a more sustainable growth model.

Author: East Asian Institute
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 981449612X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 48

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The Asian financial crisis has grown and spread. But China is the one economy in the Asia-Pacific region that has remained apparently unaffected by the present financial turmoil. Will China's financial sector be the next domino to fall? These papers will address this question by examining various pros and cons together with their backgrounds.