The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation PDF Download

Author: Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616356154
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34

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Book Description
This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

Author: Mr.Aasim M. Husain
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 151357227X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 41

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Book Description
The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451956029
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 229

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Book Description
This paper discusses effects of inflation on economic development. A mild inflation may well encourage little, or no, evasion of the “inflation tax.” On the other hand, a strong inflation, and frequently a mild one also, will lead to community reactions which have effects like those of widespread tax evasion. A development policy may have wider aims than the encouragement of a high level of investment. Inflation has two effects on the desire for liquidity, which are related to the two basic reasons why individuals and businesses wish to hold liquid assets—the speculative and precautionary motives. Inflation increases the value of effective liquidity, thereby raising the community's desire for it, but it makes the most generally accepted store of liquidity unacceptable sources of protection. The control of inflation is only one of the problems facing a government wishing to encourage rapid economic development. The fight against illiteracy, the reform of bureaucratic practices, the building of basic sanitary facilities for the eradication of endemic diseases, the substitution of competitive for monopolistic trade practices, the encouragement of a widespread spirit of entrepreneurship, and the creation of an adequate amount of social capital, may be important prerequisites for rapid growth.

Author: Eliphas Ndou
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
ISBN: 9783030139315
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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This book focuses on the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT), second round effects and the inflation process in South Africa. The authors demonstrate that magnitudes of the second round effects of the exchange rate depreciation and oil price shocks depend on inflation regimes. The impact of positive oil price shocks on inflation is weakened by monetary policy credibility. Evidence shows the influence of oil price on unit labour costs and correlation between exchange rate changes and inflation has weakened. In addition, ERPT is reduced by low business and consumer confidence, high trade openness, low inflation and high exchange rate volatility which weaken real economic activity. Both monetary and fiscal policy credibility lowers the sizes of ERPT to inflation and inflation expectations. Fiscal policy via fuel levies, administered prices and public transport inflation channel impacts the responses of monetary policy to inflation shocks. The authors show that second round effects contribute very little to wage inflation following an exchange rate depreciation shock. Both lending rate and household consumption responds asymmetrical to repo rate changes. This book will appeal to policymakers, students, academics and analysts.

Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402

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Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
ISBN: 9781646794973
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 158

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Book Description
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Author: Commission on Growth and Development
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 0821374923
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 198

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Book Description
The result of two years work by 19 experienced policymakers and two Nobel prize-winning economists, 'The Growth Report' is the most complete analysis to date of the ingredients which, if used in the right country-specific recipe, can deliver growth and help lift populations out of poverty.

Author: Robin C. Sickles
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1489980083
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 417

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Book Description
From the Introduction: This volume is dedicated to the remarkable career of Professor Peter Schmidt and the role he has played in mentoring us, his PhD students. Peter’s accomplishments are legendary among his students and the profession. Each of the papers in this Festschrift is a research work executed by a former PhD student of Peter’s, from his days at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill to his time at Michigan State University. Most of the papers were presented at The Conference in Honor of Peter Schmidt, June 30 - July 2, 2011. The conference was largely attended by his former students and one current student, who traveled from as far as Europe and Asia to honor Peter. This was a conference to celebrate Peter’s contribution to our contributions. By “our contributions” we mean the research papers that make up this Festschrift and the countless other publications by his students represented and not represented in this volume. Peter’s students may have their families to thank for much that is positive in their lives. However, if we think about it, our professional lives would not be the same without the lessons and the approaches to decision making that we learned from Peter. We spent our days together at Peter’s conference and the months since reminded of these aspects of our personalities and life goals that were enhanced, fostered, and nurtured by the very singular experiences we have had as Peter’s students. We recognized in 2011 that it was unlikely we would all be together again to celebrate such a wonderful moment in ours and Peter’s lives and pledged then to take full advantage of it. We did then, and we are now in the form of this volume.

Author: Jongrim Ha
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464813760
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 524

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Book Description
This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.

Author: Mr.Dhaneshwar Ghura
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451855753
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 32

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Book Description
The paper investigates empirically the determinants of economic growth for a large sample of sub-Saharan African countries during 1981-92. The results indicate that (i) an increase in private investment has a relatively large positive impact on per capita growth; (ii) growth is stimulated by public policies that lower the budget deficit in relation to GDP (without reducing government investment), reduce the rate of inflation, maintain external competitiveness, promote structural reforms, encourage human capital development, and slow population growth; and (iii) convergence of per capita income occurs after controlling for human capital development and public policies.