The Evolution of Inflation Expectations in Euro Area Markets PDF Download

Author: Juan Angel Garcia
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484363019
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 59

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Book Description
Do euro area inflation expectations remain well-anchored? This paper finds that the protracted period of low (and below-target) inflation in the euro area since 2013 has weakened their anchoring. Testing their sensitivity to inflation and macroeconomic news, this paper expands existing results in two key dimensions. First, by analyzing all available (advanced) inflation releases. Second, the reactions of expectations are investigated at daily, time-varying and intraday frequency regressions to add robustness to our conclusions. Results point to a significant impact of inflation news over recent years that had not been observed before in the euro area.

Author: Ricardo Gimeno
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 42

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Author: Ms.Florence Jaumotte
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1463983646
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 36

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Book Description
While inflation differentials in a monetary union can be benign, reflecting a catch-up process, or an adjustment mechanism to asymmetric shocks or different business cycles, they may also indicate distortions related to inefficiencies in domestic product and labor markets that amplify or make more persistent the impact of shocks on inflation. The paper examines the determinants of inflation differentials in the euro area, with emphasis on the role of country specific labor and product market institutions. The analysis uses a traditional backward-looking Phillips curve equation and augments it to explore the role of collective bargaining systems, union density, employment protection, and product market regulation. The model is estimated over a panel dataset of 10 euro area countries over the period 1983-2007. Results show that high employment protection, intermediate coordination of collective bargaining, and high union density increase the persistence of inflation. Oil and raw materials price shocks are also more likely to be accommodated by wage increases when the degree of coordination in collective bargaining is intermediate. These results are robust to different estimation methods, model specifications, and outliers. The paper suggests that reforming labor market institutions may improve the functioning of the euro area by reducing the risk of persistent inflation differentials.

Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402

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Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789284689071
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Book Description
This paper discusses theory and evidence on inflation expectations. While near-term measures of expected inflation in the euro area have increased, forecasters and financial markets expect inflation to decline back to the ECB's target by later this year. The paper provides some sceptical arguments in relation to the prominence given to measure of inflation expectations in monetary policy circles.

Author: Mr.Yasser Abdih
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484372565
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 25

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Book Description
Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low in the euro area. Based on an augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that this phenomenon—sometimes attributed to low global inflation—has been primarily caused by a remarkable persistence of inflation, keeping it low despite the reduction in slack. This feature is shown to be specific to the euro area (in comparison with the United States). Monetary policy needs to stay accommodative to help guide inflation back to target.

Author: Christian Hoynck
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Author: Mads Kieler
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451851537
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 51

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Book Description
The ECB's objective of medium-term inflation below 2 percent has been portrayed by critics as ambiguous, asymmetric, and excessively stringent. This paper attempts a comprehensive evaluation of the trade-offs for the euro area and finds that: (1) in terms of guiding inflation expectations and policymaking, the current definition has functioned much as would an inflation target centered on 1 1/2-1 3/4 percent; (2) the absence of a specific (point) target for medium-term inflation has encumbered the communication of monetary policy; and (3) a target toward the upper end of the ECB's price-stability range would seem, at least with the current membership of EMU, to strike a judicious balance between the benefits of price stability, on the one hand, and the need to assist relative price and wage adjustment across EMU and safeguard against deflation, on the other hand.

Author: Massimo Rostagno
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0192649280
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 496

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Book Description
The first twenty years of the European Central Bank (ECB) offer a clear demonstration of how a central bank can navigate macroeconomic insecurity and crisis. As the global economy moves into a new phase of unheralded uncertainty, the story of the ECB holds multiple lessons of wider significance for the central banking community and researchers of monetary policy. This volume provides a unique account of how the ECB has reacted to the challenges confronting the euro area through its monetary policy, turning to innovative measures and unprecedented policy actions to fend off the various threats posed by the global financial turmoil of 2007/08, the euro area sovereign debt market crisis, and the subsequent period of anaemic growth and deflationary pressures. It also addresses some of the criticisms the ECB has faced regarding its policy initiatives. It identifies the ultimate motivation behind the ECB's cautious attitude in the early phases of the financial crisis, and its peculiar definition of price stability and attention for credit creation, as well as addressing the criticism that central banks were fundamentally unprepared to head off a major financial cataclysm as they were wedded to a deficient economic paradigm which made them blind to financial risks. It also shows that the ECB's unconventional low-interest policies have not compromised the position of financial intermediaries in the way commentators initially predicted they would. By condensing the facts and lessons of the first 20 years of the ECB, this volume will acquaint the reader with the structures and decision-making processes behind the complex, often controversial, crisis measures that were taken during some of the toughest economic challenges in the history of modern Europe, and provide them with fresh ex-post analysis on their effect on the real economy and inflation.

Author: Michal Andrle
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475531206
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26

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Book Description
This paper discusses comovement between inflation and output in the euro area. The strength of the comovement may not be apparent at first sight, but is clear at business cycle frequencies. Our results suggest that at business cycle frequency, the output and core inflation comovement is high and stable, and that inflation lags the cycle in output with roughly half of its variance. The strong relationship of output and inflation hints at the importance of demand shocks for the euro area business cycle.