The Effects of Restructuring Charges on Stock Price and Analyst Forecast Accuracy PDF Download

Author: Mary Hilston Keener
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 192

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Author: Thomas J. Lopez
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 36

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The primary objective of this study is to investigate the effect of prior and multiple restructuring charges on analysts? earnings forecasts. We investigate the effect of restructuring charges on analysts'forecasts by examining both forecast accuracy and dispersion. Chaney et al. (1999) provide evidence that analyst forecast accuracy is impaired by restructurings. However, they. find no empirical link between prior restructuring events and forecast accuracy. In contrast to the findings of Chaney et al., we predict that analysts will learn from prior restructuring charges. By quot;learnquot; we mean that current restructuring charges impair forecast accuracy to a lesser extent when prior restructuring charges are present. To document learning, we adapt the Chaney model and partition the sample to identify restructuring plans that have been fully implemented. Additionally, we control for the complexity of the prior charges. Consistent with our prediction, we find that analysts are able to learn from prior restructuring events. Further tests suggest that this learning is only related to restructurings that have been fully implemented, that is, previous events that were announced more than two years prior to the current forecast. Additionally, we find that the relative magnitude of restructuring charges are associated with a decrease (increase) in forecast accuracy (dispersion) for up to two years after the announcement of the event. This result is consistent with the findings of Hanna (1999). Overall, our results are generally consistent with the conclusion that restructurings create uncertainty for analysts that lasts for at least two years subsequent to the announcement of the event and that analysts do in fact learn from the existence of prior events.

Author: Andrew W. Alford
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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This paper uses a simultaneous equations system to examine the effect of extreme accounting events in the previous fiscal year on analyst following and forecast accuracy. We measure extreme accounting events by the magnitude of a company's restructuring charges and by an information signal based on the fundamental variables in Lev and Thiagarajan (1993). Our results indicate that the existence of an extreme accounting event impairs analysts' ability to predict future earnings. These results are consistent with our hypothesis and suggestions in the popular press that market participants have difficulty understanding the implications of extreme accounting events for future operating performance. We also find that forecast accuracy and analyst following are determined simultaneously, with greater accuracy associated with higher analyst following. Our results suggest analysts prefer to follow companies for which earnings are easier to forecast, consistent with analysts complementing rather than substituting for other sources of information.

Author: Lihong Liang
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 49

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This paper examines how the reporting model for a firm's operating assets affects analyst forecast accuracy. We contrast UK and US investment property firms having real estate as their primary operating asset, exploiting that UK (US) firms report these assets at fair value (historical cost). We assess the accuracy of a balance sheet-based forecast (net asset value, or NAV) and an income statement-based forecast (earnings-per-share, or EPS). We predict and find higher NAV forecast accuracy for UK relative to US firms, consistent with the fair value reporting model revealing private information that is incorporated into analysts' balance sheet forecasts. We find this difference is attenuated when the fair value and historical cost models are more likely to converge: during recessionary periods. Finally, we predict and find lower EPS forecast accuracy for UK firms when reporting under the full fair value model of IFRS, in which unrealized fair value gains and losses are included in net income. This is consistent with the full fair value model increasing the difficulty of forecasting net income through the inclusion of non-serially correlated elements such as these gains/losses. Information content analyses provide further support for these inferences. Overall, the results indicate that the fair value reporting model enhances analysts' ability to forecast the balance sheet, but the full fair value model reduces their ability to forecast net income.

Author: Binod Guragai
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business enterprises
Languages : en
Pages : 108

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Because of the non-recurring and transitory nature of discontinued operations, accounting standards require that the results of discontinued operations be separately reported on the income statement. Prior accounting literature supports the view that discontinued operations are non-recurring or transitory in nature, and also suggests that income classified as transitory has minimal relevance in firm valuation. Finance and management literature, however, suggest that firms discontinue operations to strategically utilize their scarce resources. Assuming that discontinued operations are a result of managerial motives to strategically concentrate resources into remaining continued operations, this dissertation examines the informativeness of discontinued operations. In doing so, this dissertation empirically tests the financial performance, investment efficiency, valuation, and analyst forecast accuracy effects of discontinued operations. In 2001, Financial Accounting Standards Board's (FASB) Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) 144 (hereafter SFAS 144) replaced Accounting Principles Board's Opinion 30 (hereafter APB 30) and broadened the scope of divestiture transactions to be presented in discontinued operations. Some stakeholders of financial statements argued that discontinued operations were less decision-useful in the SFAS 144 era because too many transactions that do not represent a strategic shift in operations were separately stated as discontinued operations on the income statement. With the possibility that the discontinued operations reported in SFAS 144 era may not reflect a major strategic reallocation of resources, this dissertation examines whether the relationship between discontinued operations, firm performance, investment efficiency, and analyst forecast accuracy are different in the pre-SFAS 144 and SFAS 144 era. Using a sample of firms that discontinued operations between 1990 and 2012, this dissertation study finds limited evidence that firms experience improvement in financial performance following discontinued operations and that such improvement is only observed in pre-SFAS 144 era. The results also suggest that any improvement in financial performance documented is conditional on the profitability of the operations discontinued and provide no support for investment efficiency improvement following discontinued operations. Related to the valuation implications of discontinued operations, this dissertation shows that investors differentially value profitable and loss discontinued operations. However, such valuation differences are not dependent on the performance improvement implications. Finally, results support that analyst forecast accuracy of earnings decreases following the reporting of discontinued operations, but such effect is only observed in the pre-SFAS 144 era. This dissertation makes several contributions to the literature. First, this study extends the literature on corporate divestment by using a large sample of discontinuation decisions and hand-collected data on the profitability of the operations discontinued. Second, this research extends the literature on market studies by analyzing whether market response to a discontinuation decision is dependent upon the profitability of the operation discontinued. Third, based upon a review of the literature, it is believed that this is the first study to examine the possibility that analyst forecast accuracy may change following a discontinuation decision. Finally, this study extends the literature that examines the effects of changes in accounting rules and regulations on the informativeness of financial statement items. These results should be of interest to investors, regulators, and analysts.

Author: Niels Haldrup
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191669547
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 393

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This edited collection concerns nonlinear economic relations that involve time. It is divided into four broad themes that all reflect the work and methodology of Professor Timo Teräsvirta, one of the leading scholars in the field of nonlinear time series econometrics. The themes are: Testing for linearity and functional form, specification testing and estimation of nonlinear time series models in the form of smooth transition models, model selection and econometric methodology, and finally applications within the area of financial econometrics. All these research fields include contributions that represent state of the art in econometrics such as testing for neglected nonlinearity in neural network models, time-varying GARCH and smooth transition models, STAR models and common factors in volatility modeling, semi-automatic general to specific model selection for nonlinear dynamic models, high-dimensional data analysis for parametric and semi-parametric regression models with dependent data, commodity price modeling, financial analysts earnings forecasts based on asymmetric loss function, local Gaussian correlation and dependence for asymmetric return dependence, and the use of bootstrap aggregation to improve forecast accuracy. Each chapter represents original scholarly work, and reflects the intellectual impact that Timo Teräsvirta has had and will continue to have, on the profession.

Author: United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 136

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Author: Cheng Few Lee
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9811202400
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 5053

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Book Description
This four-volume handbook covers important concepts and tools used in the fields of financial econometrics, mathematics, statistics, and machine learning. Econometric methods have been applied in asset pricing, corporate finance, international finance, options and futures, risk management, and in stress testing for financial institutions. This handbook discusses a variety of econometric methods, including single equation multiple regression, simultaneous equation regression, and panel data analysis, among others. It also covers statistical distributions, such as the binomial and log normal distributions, in light of their applications to portfolio theory and asset management in addition to their use in research regarding options and futures contracts.In both theory and methodology, we need to rely upon mathematics, which includes linear algebra, geometry, differential equations, Stochastic differential equation (Ito calculus), optimization, constrained optimization, and others. These forms of mathematics have been used to derive capital market line, security market line (capital asset pricing model), option pricing model, portfolio analysis, and others.In recent times, an increased importance has been given to computer technology in financial research. Different computer languages and programming techniques are important tools for empirical research in finance. Hence, simulation, machine learning, big data, and financial payments are explored in this handbook.Led by Distinguished Professor Cheng Few Lee from Rutgers University, this multi-volume work integrates theoretical, methodological, and practical issues based on his years of academic and industry experience.

Author: Gerald I. White
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0471375942
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 786

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Accounting Standards (US and International) have been updated to reflect the latest pronouncements. * An increased international focus with more coverage of IASC and non-US GAAPs and more non-US examples.

Author: Wayne Ferson
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 0262039370
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 497

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Book Description
An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.