The Determinants of Inflation in South Africa PDF Download

Author: Oludele Akinloye Akinboade
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 74

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Author: Jongrim Ha
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464813760
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 524

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This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.

Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402

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Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Author: Mr.Gary G. Moser
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 145184980X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 25

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This paper provides a selective review of the literature on the determinants of inflation in Nigeria, analyzes the dominant factors influencing inflation, presents the empirical results of a reduced-form elasticities model, and discusses the policy implications of the empirical results. The results of this analysis confirm the basic findings of earlier studies, namely that monetary expansion, driven mainly by expansionary fiscal policies, explains to a large degree the inflationary process in Nigeria. Other important factors are the devaluation of the naira and agroclimatic conditions. With respect to the depreciation of the naira, it was found that concurrent fiscal and monetary policies had a major influence on its impact on inflation. Given the considerable role of food commodities in the CPI, agroclimatic conditions (rainfall) were found to play a significant role in overall movements in prices and should be fully taken into consideration in any analysis of the inflationary process in Nigeria.

Author: Christina D. Romer
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226724832
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 434

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While there is ample evidence that high inflation is harmful, little is known about how best to reduce inflation or how far it should be reduced. In this volume, sixteen distinguished economists analyze the appropriateness of low inflation as a goal for monetary policy and discuss possible strategies for reducing inflation. Section I discusses the consequences of inflation. These papers analyze inflation's impact on the tax system, labor market flexibility, equilibrium unemployment, and the public's sense of well-being. Section II considers the obstacles facing central bankers in achieving low inflation. These papers study the precision of estimates of equilibrium unemployment, the sources of the high inflation of the 1970s, and the use of non-traditional indicators in policy formation. The papers in section III consider how institutions can be designed to promote successful monetary policy, and the importance of institutions to the performance of policy in the United States, Germany, and other countries. This timely volume should be read by anyone who studies or conducts monetary policy.

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309452961
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 583

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Book Description
In the United States, some populations suffer from far greater disparities in health than others. Those disparities are caused not only by fundamental differences in health status across segments of the population, but also because of inequities in factors that impact health status, so-called determinants of health. Only part of an individual's health status depends on his or her behavior and choice; community-wide problems like poverty, unemployment, poor education, inadequate housing, poor public transportation, interpersonal violence, and decaying neighborhoods also contribute to health inequities, as well as the historic and ongoing interplay of structures, policies, and norms that shape lives. When these factors are not optimal in a community, it does not mean they are intractable: such inequities can be mitigated by social policies that can shape health in powerful ways. Communities in Action: Pathways to Health Equity seeks to delineate the causes of and the solutions to health inequities in the United States. This report focuses on what communities can do to promote health equity, what actions are needed by the many and varied stakeholders that are part of communities or support them, as well as the root causes and structural barriers that need to be overcome.

Author: Mthuli Ncube
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
ISBN: 9781137512956
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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To what extent is South Africa affected by G8 economies and BRIC growth shocks? This book identifies channels that amplify these shock effects, the relevance of third country transmission effects and the effects of the first and second rounds of US quantitative easing. The changing reactions of South African variables over time to financial shocks emanating from the US and selected countries in the Euro area, is presented. The book quantifies the effects of capital flow shocks, determines the counterfactuals of asset prices and economic growth variables, and compares the contribution of capital flows and domestic macro factors on asset prices. The effects of the exchange rate depreciation are contrasted to the decline in investment as key drivers of the trade balance. Stock market interdependence is determined amongst South African, Indian and Brazilian equities. The contributions of stock price returns and volatility on South African economic growth are contrasted. The authors construct a financial stress index for South Africa and determine how it amplifies shocks.

Author: Eliphas Ndou
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319467026
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 546

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Book Description
This book offers a comprehensive empirical analysis of South African inflation dynamics, using a variety of techniques including counterfactual analysis. The authors elaborate the roles in inflation of thresholds, nonlinearities and asymmetries introduced by economic conditions such as the size of exchange rate changes and volatility, GDP growth, inflation, output gap, credit growth, sovereign spreads and fiscal policy, providing new policy evidence on the impact of these. Ndou and Gumata apply techniques to determine the prevalence of updating inflation expectations, and reconsider the propagation effects of a number of inflation risk factors. Asking to what extent the evidence points to a need to enforce price stability and the anchoring of inflation expectation, the book fills existing gaps in South African Policy, and maintains a clear argument that price stability is consistent with the 3 to 6 per cent inflation target range, and that threshold application should form an important aspect of policy analysis in periods of macroeconomic uncertainty. As such, the book serves as an excellent reference text for academic and policy discussions alike.

Author: Ms. Laura Papi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451903634
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34

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High and variable inflation has been a central feature of the Turkish economy since the 1970s. This paper seeks to shed some light on the determinants of inflation in Turkey by analyzing price determination within the framework of a multi-sector macroeconomic model during 1970–95. The main findings are that monetary variables (initially money, more recently the exchange rate) play a central role in the inflationary process, that public sector deficits contribute to inflationary pressures, and that inertial factors are quantitatively important. Policymakers’ commitment to active exchange rate depreciation on several occasions in the past 15 years has also contributed to the inflationary process.

Author: Mehmet Terzioğlu
Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand
ISBN: 1839624868
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 339

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Book Description
The importance of experimental economics and econometric methods increases with each passing day as data quality and software performance develops. New econometric models are developed by diverging from earlier cliché econometric models with the emergence of specialized fields of study. This book, which is expected to be an extensive and useful reference by bringing together some of the latest developments in the field of econometrics, also contains quantitative examples and problem sets. We thank all the authors who contributed to this book with their studies that provide extensive and accessible explanations of the existing econometric methods.