Statistical Reasoning with Imprecise Probabilities PDF Download

Author: Peter Walley
Publisher: Chapman and Hall/CRC
ISBN:
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 728

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Book Description
An examination of topics involved in statistical reasoning with imprecise probabilities. The book discusses assessment and elicitation, extensions, envelopes and decisions, the importance of imprecision, conditional previsions and coherent statistical models.

Author: Jose De Gregorio
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic development
Languages : en
Pages : 20

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Book Description

Author: Iva Petrova
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455252859
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 28

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Book Description
This paper analyses the determimants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads by examining the short and long-run effects of fundamental (macroeconomic) and temporary (financial market) factors on these spreads. During the current global financial and economic crisis, sovereign bond spreads widened dramatically for both developed and emerging market economies. This deterioration has widely been attributed to rapidly growing public debts and balance sheet risks. Our results indicate that in the long run, fundamentals are significant determinants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads, while in the short run, financial volatility is a more important determinant of sperads than fundamentals indicators.

Author: Arik Ben Dor
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119751284
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 742

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Book Description
Praise for SYSTEMATIC INVESTING in CREDIT "Lev and QPS continue to shed light on the most important questions facing credit investors. This book focuses on their latest cutting-edge research into the appropriate role of credit as an asset class, the dynamics of credit benchmarks, and potential ways to benefit from equity information to construct effective credit portfolios. It is must-read material for all serious credit investors." —Richard Donick, President and Chief Risk Officer, DCI, LLC, USA "Lev Dynkin and his team continue to spoil us; this book is yet another example of intuitive, insightful, and pertinent research, which builds on the team's previous research. As such, the relationship with this team is one of the best lifetime learning experiences I have had." —Eduard van Gelderen, Chief Investment Officer, Public Sector Pension Investment Board, Canada "The rise of a systematic approach in credit is a logical extension of the market's evolution and long overdue. Barclays QPS team does a great job of presenting its latest research in a practical manner." —David Horowitz, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer, Agilon Capital, USA "Systematization reduces human biases and wasteful reinventing of past solutions. It improves the chances of investing success. This book, by a team of experts, shows you the way. You will gain insights into the advanced methodologies of combining fundamental and market data. I recommend this book for all credit investors." —Lim Chow Kiat, Chief Executive Officer, GIC Asset Management, Singapore "For nearly two decades, QPS conducted extensive and sound research to help investors meet industry challenges. The proprietary research in this volume gives a global overview of cutting-edge developments in alpha generation for credit investors, from signal extraction and ESG considerations to portfolio implementation. The book blazes a trail for enhanced risk adjusted returns by exploring the cross-asset relation between stocks and bonds and adding relevant information for credit portfolio construction. Our core belief at Ostrum AM, is that a robust quantamental approach, yields superior investment outcomes. Indeed, this book is a valuable read for the savvy investor." —Ibrahima Kobar, CFA, Global Chief Investment Officer, Ostrum AM, France "This book offers a highly engaging account of the current work by the Barclays QPS Group. It is a fascinating mix of original ideas, rigorous analytical techniques, and fundamental insights informed by a long history of frontline work in this area. This is a must-read from the long-time leaders in the field." —Professor Leonid Kogan, Nippon Telephone and Telegraph Professor of Management and Finance, MIT "This book provides corporate bond portfolio managers with an abundance of relevant, comprehensive, data-driven research for the implementation of superior investment performance strategies." —Professor Stanley J. Kon, Editor, Journal of Fixed income "This book is a treasure trove for both pension investors and trustees seeking to improve performance through credit. It provides a wealth of empirical evidence to guide long-term allocation to credit, optimize portfolio construction and harvest returns from systematic credit factors. By extending their research to ESG ratings, the authors also provide timely insights in the expanding field of sustainable finance." —Eloy Lindeijer, former Chief of Investment Management, PGGM, Netherlands "Over more than a decade, Lev Dynkin and his QPS team has provided me and APG with numerous innovative insights in credit markets. Their work gave us valuable quantitative substantiation of some of our investment beliefs. This book covers new and under-researched areas of our markets, like ESG and factor investing, next to the rigorous and practical work akin to the earlier work of the group. I'd say read this book—and learn from one of the best." —Herman Slooijer, Managing Director, Head of Fixed Income, APG Asset Management, Netherlands

Author: Stefano Caselli
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540253114
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 210

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Book Description
First comprehensive book on all structured finance products Complete information on technical features, roles played by intermediaries, market in terms of demand and offer Clear structure of the book makes it suitable as a textbook for students and as a reference book for practitioners

Author: Darrell Duffie
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400829208
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 488

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Book Description
This is a thoroughly updated edition of Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory, the standard text for doctoral students and researchers on the theory of asset pricing and portfolio selection in multiperiod settings under uncertainty. The asset pricing results are based on the three increasingly restrictive assumptions: absence of arbitrage, single-agent optimality, and equilibrium. These results are unified with two key concepts, state prices and martingales. Technicalities are given relatively little emphasis, so as to draw connections between these concepts and to make plain the similarities between discrete and continuous-time models. Readers will be particularly intrigued by this latest edition's most significant new feature: a chapter on corporate securities that offers alternative approaches to the valuation of corporate debt. Also, while much of the continuous-time portion of the theory is based on Brownian motion, this third edition introduces jumps--for example, those associated with Poisson arrivals--in order to accommodate surprise events such as bond defaults. Applications include term-structure models, derivative valuation, and hedging methods. Numerical methods covered include Monte Carlo simulation and finite-difference solutions for partial differential equations. Each chapter provides extensive problem exercises and notes to the literature. A system of appendixes reviews the necessary mathematical concepts. And references have been updated throughout. With this new edition, Dynamic Asset Pricing Theory remains at the head of the field.

Author: Jiri Podpiera
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455200573
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34

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Book Description
This paper attempts to identify the fundamental variables that drive the credit default swaps during the initial phase of distress in selected European Large Complex Financial Institutions (LCFIs). It uses yearly data over 2004 - 08 for 29 European LCFIs. The results from a dynamic panel data estimator show that LCFIs’ business models, earnings potential, and economic uncertainty (represented by market expectations about the future risks of a particular LCFI and market views on prospects for economic growth) are among the most significant determinants of credit risk. The findings of the paper are broadly consistent with those of the literature on bank failure, where the determinants of the latter include the entire CAMELS structure - that is, Capital Adequacy, Asset Quality, Management Quality, Earnings Potential, Liquidity, and Sensitivity to Market Risk. By establishing a link between the financial and market fundamentals of LCFIs and their CDS spreads, the paper offers a potential tool for fundamentals-based vulnerability and early warning system for LCFIs.

Author: Edwin J. Elton
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814335401
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 417

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Book Description
This book contains the recent contributions of Edwin J. Elton and Martin J. Gruber to the field of investments. All of the articles in this book have been published in the leading finance and economic journals. Sixteen of the twenty articles have been published in the last ten years. This book supplements the earlier contributions of the editors published by MIT Press in 1999.

Author: Eugenia Andreasen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484303318
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26

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Book Description
Using a panel data set for international corporate bonds and capital account restrictions in advanced and emerging economies, we show that restrictions on capital inflows produce a substantial and economically meaningful increase in corporate bond spreads. A number of heterogeneities suggest that the effect of capital controls on inflows is particularly strong for more financially constrained firms, establishing a novel channel through which capital controls affect economic outcomes. By contrast, we do not find a robust significant effect of restrictions on outflows.

Author: John H. Cochrane
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400829135
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 552

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Book Description
Winner of the prestigious Paul A. Samuelson Award for scholarly writing on lifelong financial security, John Cochrane's Asset Pricing now appears in a revised edition that unifies and brings the science of asset pricing up to date for advanced students and professionals. Cochrane traces the pricing of all assets back to a single idea—price equals expected discounted payoff—that captures the macro-economic risks underlying each security's value. By using a single, stochastic discount factor rather than a separate set of tricks for each asset class, Cochrane builds a unified account of modern asset pricing. He presents applications to stocks, bonds, and options. Each model—consumption based, CAPM, multifactor, term structure, and option pricing—is derived as a different specification of the discounted factor. The discount factor framework also leads to a state-space geometry for mean-variance frontiers and asset pricing models. It puts payoffs in different states of nature on the axes rather than mean and variance of return, leading to a new and conveniently linear geometrical representation of asset pricing ideas. Cochrane approaches empirical work with the Generalized Method of Moments, which studies sample average prices and discounted payoffs to determine whether price does equal expected discounted payoff. He translates between the discount factor, GMM, and state-space language and the beta, mean-variance, and regression language common in empirical work and earlier theory. The book also includes a review of recent empirical work on return predictability, value and other puzzles in the cross section, and equity premium puzzles and their resolution. Written to be a summary for academics and professionals as well as a textbook, this book condenses and advances recent scholarship in financial economics.