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Author: Asli Demirgüç-Kunt Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: Category : Banks and banking Languages : en Pages : 52
Book Description
The paper studies the factors associated with the emergence of systemic banking crises in a large sample of developed and developing countries in 1980–94, using a multivariate logit econometric model. the results suggest that crises tend to erupt when the macroeconomic environment is weak, particularly when growth is low and inflation is high. Also, high real interest rates are clearly associated with systemic banking sector problems, and there is some evidence that vulnerability to balance of payments crises has played a role. Countries with an explicit deposit insurance scheme were particularly at risk, as were countries with weak law enforcement.
Author: Ms.Enrica Detragiache Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451947178 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 32
Book Description
The paper studies the factors associated with the emergence of systemic banking crises in a large sample of developed and developing countries in 1980–94, using a multivariate logit econometric model. The results suggest that crises tend to erupt when the macroeconomic environment is weak, particularly when growth is low and inflation is high. Also, high real interest rates are clearly associated with systemic banking sector problems, and there is some evidence that vulnerability to balance of payments crises has played a role. Countries with an explicit deposit insurance scheme were particularly at risk, as were countries with weak law enforcement.
Author: Asli Demirgüç-Kunt Publisher: ISBN: Category : Electronic books Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
September 1997 Vulnerability to crises in the banking sector appears to be associated with these factors: a weak macroeconomic environment characterized by slow GDP growth and high inflation, vulnerability to sudden capital outflows, low liquidity in the banking sector, a high share of credit to the private sector, past credit growth, the existence of explicit deposit insurance, and weak institutions. In the 1980s and 1990s several countries experienced banking crises. Demirgüç-Kunt and Detragiache try to identify features of the economic environment that tend to breed problems in the banking sector. They do so by econometrically estimating the probability of a systemic crisis, applying a multivariate logit model to data from a large panel of countries, both industrial and developing, for the period 1980-94. Included in the panel as controls are countries that never experienced banking problems. The authors find that crises tend to occur in a weak macroeconomic environment characterized by slow GDP growth and high inflation. When these effects are controlled for, neither the rate of currency depreciation nor the fiscal deficit are significant. Also associated with a higher probability of crisis are vulnerability to sudden capital outflows, low liquidity in the banking sector, a high share of credit to the private sector, and past credit growth. Another factor significantly (and robustly) associated with increased vulnerability in the banking sector is the presence of explicit deposit insurance, suggesting that moral hazard has played a major role. Finally, countries with weak institutions (as measured by a law and order index) are more likely to experience crises. This paper-a product of the Development Research Group, World Bank, and the Research Department, International Monetary Fund-is part of a larger effort to understand the causes of banking crises.
Author: Carmen M. Reinhart Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: Category : Bank failures Languages : en Pages : 37
Book Description
The historical frequency of banking crises is quite similar in high- and middle-to-low-income countries, with quantitative and qualitative parallels in both the run-ups and the aftermath. We establish these regularities using a unique dataset spanning from Denmark's financial panic during the Napoleonic War to the ongoing global financial crisis sparked by subprime mortgage defaults in the United States.Banking crises dramatically weaken fiscal positions in both groups, with government revenues invariably contracting, and fiscal expenditures often expanding sharply. Three years after a financial crisis central government debt increases, on average, by about 86 percent. Thus the fiscal burden of banking crisis extends far beyond the commonly cited cost of the bailouts. Our new dataset includes housing price data for emerging markets; these allow us to show that the real estate price cycles around banking crises are similar in duration and amplitude to those in advanced economies, with the busts averaging four to six years. Corroborating earlier work, we find that systemic banking crises are typically preceded by asset price bubbles, large capital inflows and credit booms, in rich and poor countries alike.
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451922418 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 62
Book Description
This paper compares experiences with banking crises in seven countries in order to analyze the factors governing the crises and the effectiveness of measures to deal with the problems. The linkages between deregulation of the financial sector, and financial crises are examined. The portfolio shifts during crisis periods are studied. The major lesson from these experiences is that the regulatory and portfolio weaknesses in the financial sector have strong effects on the macroeconomy and can exacerbate the costs of macroeconomic adjustment. Structural measures to correct these weaknesses are important for the effectiveness of adjustment policies.
Author: Asli Demirgüç-Kunt Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 27
Book Description
Vulnerability to crises in the banking sector appears to be associated with these factors: a weak macroeconomic environment characterized by slow GDP growth and high inflation, vulnerability to sudden capital outflows, low liquidity in the banking sector, a high share of credit to the private sector, past credit growth, the existence of explicit deposit insurance, and weak institutions.In the 1980s and 1990s several countries experienced banking crises. Demirguuml;ccedil;-Kunt and Detragiache try to identify features of the economic environment that tend to breed problems in the banking sector.They do so by econometrically estimating the probability of a systemic crisis, applying a multivariate logit model to data from a large panel of countries, both industrial and developing, for the period 1980-94. Included in the panel as controls are countries that never experienced banking problems.The authors find that crises tend to occur in a weak macroeconomic environment characterized by slow GDP growth and high inflation. When these effects are controlled for, neither the rate of currency depreciation nor the fiscal deficit are significant.Also associated with a higher probability of crisis are vulnerability to sudden capital outflows, low liquidity in the banking sector, a high share of credit to the private sector, and past credit growth.Another factor significantly (and robustly) associated with increased vulnerability in the banking sector is the presence of explicit deposit insurance, suggesting that moral hazard has played a major role.Finally, countries with weak institutions (as measured by a law and order index) are more likely to experience crises.This paper-a product of the Development Research Group, World Bank, and the Research Department, International Monetary Fund-is part of a larger effort to understand the causes of banking crises.
Author: Ms.Enrica Detragiache Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 145185739X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 28
Book Description
Using aggregate and bank level data for several countries, the paper studies what happens to the banking system in the aftermath of a banking crisis. Contemporary crises are not accompanied by declines in aggregate bank deposits, and credit does not fall relative to output, although the growth of both deposits and credit slows down substantially. Output recovery begins in the second year after the crisis and is not led by a resumption in credit growth. Banks, including the stronger ones, reallocate their asset portfolio away from loans.
Author: Luca Papi Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498331629 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 56
Book Description
This paper looks at the effects of International Monetary Fund (IMF) lending programs on banking crises in a large sample of developing countries, over the period 1970-2010. The endogeneity of the IMF intervention is addressed by adopting an instrumental variable strategy and a propensity score matching estimator. Controlling for the standard determinants of banking crises, our results indicate that countries participating in IMF-supported lending programs are significantly less likely to experience a future banking crisis than nonborrowing countries. We also provide evidence suggesting that compliance with conditionality and loan size matter.
Author: Daniela Klingebiel Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 9780821350560 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 68
Book Description
This volume provides two recent analyses of government responses to financial crises; they have been developed in the light of the recent East Asian crisis, but also draw on experiences from other regions. Issues discussed relate to: the tradeoffs involved in public policies for systemic financial and corporate sector restructuring; and the use of cross-country evidence to determine whether specific crisis containment and resolution policies effect the fiscal costs of resolving a crisis. The book also presents information on 113 systemic banking crises that have occurred in 93 countries since the 1970s, as well as 50 borderline or non-systemic banking crises in 44 countries during the same period.
Author: Asli Demirgüç-Kunt
Author: Ms.Enrica Detragiache
Author: Asli Demirgüç-Kunt
Author: Carmen M. Reinhart
Author: Gerard Caprio
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: Asli Demirgüç-Kunt
Author: Ms.Enrica Detragiache
Author: Luca Papi
Author: Daniela Klingebiel
Author: Morris Goldstein