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Author: Glenn Shafer Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 9780262193689 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 554
Book Description
In The Art of Causal Conjecture, Glenn Shafer lays out a new mathematical and philosophical foundation for probability and uses it to explain concepts of causality used in statistics, artificial intelligence, and philosophy. The various disciplines that use causal reasoning differ in the relative weight they put on security and precision of knowledge as opposed to timeliness of action. The natural and social sciences seek high levels of certainty in the identification of causes and high levels of precision in the measurement of their effects. The practical sciences -- medicine, business, engineering, and artificial intelligence -- must act on causal conjectures based on more limited knowledge. Shafer's understanding of causality contributes to both of these uses of causal reasoning. His language for causal explanation can guide statistical investigation in the natural and social sciences, and it can also be used to formulate assumptions of causal uniformity needed for decision making in the practical sciences. Causal ideas permeate the use of probability and statistics in all branches of industry, commerce, government, and science. The Art of Causal Conjecture shows that causal ideas can be equally important in theory. It does not challenge the maxim that causation cannot be proven from statistics alone, but by bringing causal ideas into the foundations of probability, it allows causal conjectures to be more clearly quantified, debated, and confronted by statistical evidence.
Author: Glenn Shafer Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 9780262193689 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 554
Book Description
In The Art of Causal Conjecture, Glenn Shafer lays out a new mathematical and philosophical foundation for probability and uses it to explain concepts of causality used in statistics, artificial intelligence, and philosophy. The various disciplines that use causal reasoning differ in the relative weight they put on security and precision of knowledge as opposed to timeliness of action. The natural and social sciences seek high levels of certainty in the identification of causes and high levels of precision in the measurement of their effects. The practical sciences -- medicine, business, engineering, and artificial intelligence -- must act on causal conjectures based on more limited knowledge. Shafer's understanding of causality contributes to both of these uses of causal reasoning. His language for causal explanation can guide statistical investigation in the natural and social sciences, and it can also be used to formulate assumptions of causal uniformity needed for decision making in the practical sciences. Causal ideas permeate the use of probability and statistics in all branches of industry, commerce, government, and science. The Art of Causal Conjecture shows that causal ideas can be equally important in theory. It does not challenge the maxim that causation cannot be proven from statistics alone, but by bringing causal ideas into the foundations of probability, it allows causal conjectures to be more clearly quantified, debated, and confronted by statistical evidence.
Author: Alex Gammerman Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3642586481 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 193
Book Description
The need to electronically store, manipulate and analyze large-scale, high-dimensional data sets requires new computational methods. This book presents new intelligent data management methods and tools, including new results from the field of inference. Leading experts also map out future directions of intelligent data analysis. This book will be a valuable reference for researchers exploring the interdisciplinary area between statistics and computer science as well as for professionals applying advanced data analysis methods in industry.
Author: Joseph Y. Halpern Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 0262035022 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 240
Book Description
Explores actual causality, and such related notions as degree of responsibility, degree of blame, and causal explanation. The goal is to arrive at a definition of causality that matches our natural language usage and is helpful, for example, to a jury deciding a legal case, a programmer looking for the line of code that cause some software to fail, or an economist trying to determine whether austerity caused a subsequent depression.
Author: Judea Pearl Publisher: Basic Books ISBN: 0465097618 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 432
Book Description
A Turing Award-winning computer scientist and statistician shows how understanding causality has revolutionized science and will revolutionize artificial intelligence "Correlation is not causation." This mantra, chanted by scientists for more than a century, has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality -- the study of cause and effect -- on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.
Author: James Franklin Publisher: JHU Press ISBN: 1421418800 Category : History Languages : en Pages : 520
Book Description
The Science of Conjecture provides a history of rational methods of dealing with uncertainty and explores the coming to consciousness of the human understanding of risk.
Author: Judea Pearl Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 052189560X Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 487
Book Description
Causality offers the first comprehensive coverage of causal analysis in many sciences, including recent advances using graphical methods. Pearl presents a unified account of the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual and structural approaches to causation, and devises simple mathematical tools for analyzing the relationships between causal connections, statistical associations, actions and observations. The book will open the way for including causal analysis in the standard curriculum of statistics, artificial intelligence ...
Author: O.E. Barndorff-Nielsen Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 9781420035988 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 306
Book Description
Complex stochastic systems comprises a vast area of research, from modelling specific applications to model fitting, estimation procedures, and computing issues. The exponential growth in computing power over the last two decades has revolutionized statistical analysis and led to rapid developments and great progress in this emerging field. In Complex Stochastic Systems, leading researchers address various statistical aspects of the field, illustrated by some very concrete applications. A Primer on Markov Chain Monte Carlo by Peter J. Green provides a wide-ranging mixture of the mathematical and statistical ideas, enriched with concrete examples and more than 100 references. Causal Inference from Graphical Models by Steffen L. Lauritzen explores causal concepts in connection with modelling complex stochastic systems, with focus on the effect of interventions in a given system. State Space and Hidden Markov Models by Hans R. Künschshows the variety of applications of this concept to time series in engineering, biology, finance, and geophysics. Monte Carlo Methods on Genetic Structures by Elizabeth A. Thompson investigates special complex systems and gives a concise introduction to the relevant biological methodology. Renormalization of Interacting Diffusions by Frank den Hollander presents recent results on the large space-time behavior of infinite systems of interacting diffusions. Stein's Method for Epidemic Processes by Gesine Reinert investigates the mean field behavior of a general stochastic epidemic with explicit bounds. Individually, these articles provide authoritative, tutorial-style exposition and recent results from various subjects related to complex stochastic systems. Collectively, they link these separate areas of study to form the first comprehensive overview of this rapidly developing field.
Author: I. Niiniluoto Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 9781402019852 Category : Philosophy Languages : en Pages : 1074
Book Description
The twenty-eight essays in this Handbook, all by leading experts in the field, provide the most extensive treatment of various epistemological problems, supplemented by a historical account of this field. The entries are self-contained and substantial contributions to topics such as the sources of knowledge and belief, knowledge acquisition, and truth and justification. There are extensive essays on knowledge in specific fields: the sciences, mathematics, the humanities and the social sciences, religion, and language. Special attention is paid to current discussions on evolutionary epistemology, relativism, the relation between epistemology and cognitive science, sociology of knowledge, epistemic logic, knowledge and art, and feminist epistemology. This collection is a must-have for anybody interested in human knowledge, and its fortunes and misfortunes.
Author: Juan A. Barcelo Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1482226820 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 524
Book Description
Although many archaeologists have a good understanding of the basics in computer science, statistics, geostatistics, modeling, and data mining, more literature is needed about the advanced analysis in these areas. This book aids archaeologists in learning more advanced tools and methods while also helping mathematicians, statisticians, and computer
Author: Glenn Shafer
Author: Glenn Shafer
Author: Alex Gammerman
Author: Joseph Y. Halpern
Author: Judea Pearl
Author: Bertrand de Jouvenel
Author: James Franklin
Author: Judea Pearl
Author: O.E. Barndorff-Nielsen
Author: I. Niiniluoto
Author: Juan A. Barcelo