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Author: Shlomo Reutlinger Publisher: Johns Hopkins University Press ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 120
Book Description
The appraisal of events that have uncertain outcomes is discussed with particular reference to a feasible method for evaluating the riskiness of investment projects. The essence of the uncertainty problem is that many of the variables affecting the outcome of a particular plan are outside of the planner's control. Uncertainty, which is relevant for most decisions, is best characterized in terms of a decision agent's subjective beliefs about probabilities. The probabilistic approach lends itself best to an appraisal of possible outcomes of a project that is affected by uncertainties from many sources. Probability judgments about many basic variables and parameters affecting the final outcome can be aggregated into an estimate of the probability distribution of that final outcome. This aggregation method is demonstrated for calculation of the economic returns of a project. The method of approximation by a simulated sample is described, and its application to probability distribution rates of returns from actual projects is explained. The preparation of a mathematical model is detailed, emphasizing the usefulness of computerized calculations. Fourteen tables and nine figures are provided.
Author: Shlomo Reutlinger Publisher: Johns Hopkins University Press ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 120
Book Description
The appraisal of events that have uncertain outcomes is discussed with particular reference to a feasible method for evaluating the riskiness of investment projects. The essence of the uncertainty problem is that many of the variables affecting the outcome of a particular plan are outside of the planner's control. Uncertainty, which is relevant for most decisions, is best characterized in terms of a decision agent's subjective beliefs about probabilities. The probabilistic approach lends itself best to an appraisal of possible outcomes of a project that is affected by uncertainties from many sources. Probability judgments about many basic variables and parameters affecting the final outcome can be aggregated into an estimate of the probability distribution of that final outcome. This aggregation method is demonstrated for calculation of the economic returns of a project. The method of approximation by a simulated sample is described, and its application to probability distribution rates of returns from actual projects is explained. The preparation of a mathematical model is detailed, emphasizing the usefulness of computerized calculations. Fourteen tables and nine figures are provided.
Author: Uwe Götze Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3662458519 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 371
Book Description
This book provides an introduction to investment appraisal and presents a range of methods and models, some of which are not widely known, or at least not well covered by other textbooks. Each approach is thoroughly described, evaluated and illustrated using examples, with its assumptions and limitations analyzed in terms of their implications for investment decision-making practice. Investment decisions are of vital importance to all companies. Getting these decisions right is crucial but, due to a complex and dynamic business environment, this remains a challenging management task. Effective appraisal methods are valuable tools in supporting investment decision-making. As organisations continue to seek a competitive edge, it is increasingly important that management accountants and strategic decision-makers have a sound knowledge of these tools.
Author: Martin Rogers Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118378113 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 396
Book Description
In most cases of civil engineering development, a range of alternative schemes meeting project goals are feasible, so some form of evaluation must be carried out to select the most appropriate to take forward. Evaluation criteria usually include the economic, environmental and social contexts of a project as well as the engineering challenges, so engineers must be familiar with the processes and tools used. The second edition of Engineering Project Appraisal equips students with the understanding and analytical tools to carry out effective appraisals of alternative development schemes, using both economic and non-economic criteria. The building blocks of economic appraisal are covered early, leading to techniques such as net present worth, internal rate of return and annual worth. Cost Benefit Analysis is dealt with in detail, together with related methods such as Cost Effectiveness and the Goal Achievement Matrix. The text also details three multi-criteria models which have proved useful in the evaluation of proposals in the transportation, solid waste, energy and water resources fields: the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) Model, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique and Concordance Analysis. There is a full discussion dealing with risk and uncertainty in these models. With many worked examples and case studies, Engineering Project Appraisal is an essential text for both undergraduate and postgraduate students on professional civil engineering courses, and it is expected that students on planning and construction management courses will find it a valuable addition to their reading.
Author: Jock R. Anderson Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: Category : Commodity exchanges Languages : en Pages : 61
Book Description
A measure of the probability of commodity price forecasts is not necessary for most project analysis, but it does give users a realistic view of the forecast's precision -- and imposes a useful discipline on the forecaster.
Author: Uwe Götze Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3540399690 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 393
Book Description
This book presents a range of investment appraisal methods and models to help readers make good investment decisions. Each approach is thoroughly described, evaluated, and illustrated using examples, with its assumptions and limitations analyzed in terms of their implications for investment decision-making practice. Getting investment decisions right is crucial but due to a complex and dynamic business environment this remains a challenging management task.
Author: Martina Röhrich Publisher: Oldenbourg Verlag ISBN: 348670009X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 197
Book Description
How to make sound investment decisions: This book is based on long-term experience with students, especially at the School of International Business of Bremen University of Applied Sciences. For a better understanding, a case study is constructed to illustrate all methods discussed. Written in an easily understood style it focuses on the reality of student life as well as of practitioners. The goal of the book is to pace a sure way through the variety of methods. Mathematical basics are specifically explained in detail. This book shows clearly why there are different methods in investment appraisal and on where to focus in a given situation. As all methods are introduced by the same case study, it is easy to compare and evaluate the results. The statements in the text are further consolidated by abstracts and evaluations of each of the methods. Exercises with extensive solutions will lead to the confidence which is necessary for an ease of handling the investment appraisal techniques and for a good preparation for students’ exams. German and international students at universities and other institutions of higher education will find this book an excellent systematic preparation for their exams. It is also directed toward members of the general public who need expert guidance in making professional investment decisions. Due to the increasing mobility of students and the internationalisation of many economic or business curricula, not only do German students tend to study more abroad, but also foreign students tend to study more in Germany. In German universities the number of courses in the English language is also increasing. That is why I have written this text in English. A companion volume in German, entitled ‘Grundlagen der Investitionsrechnung: Eine Darstellung anhand einer Fallstudie’ is also available. In both textbooks the pages are constructed identically. Using both textbooks simultaneously will help those students who still lack the necessary business vocabulary in the respective language to reasonably follow a class in English or German. This book clearly closes an existing gap in the literature. This is the first book in English about capital expenditure budgeting in the sense as it is usually taught in German higher education institutions. As a result international students now have literature covering the contents of a course in investment appraisal in the form of an easy-to-read case study with easily understood graphics and notations.
Author: Harold E. Marshall Publisher: ISBN: 9781410220103 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 108
Book Description
The report has two purposes. The first is to describe in depth various techniques for treating uncertainty and risk in project evaluation. The second is to describe advantages and disadvantages of each technique to help the decision maker choose an appropriate one for a given problem. Although the focus is on buildings and building components, the techniques described in this report are equally applicable to non-building investments. These same principles apply in the evaluation of any capital budget expenditure whose future stream of benefits, revenues, savings, or costs is uncertain. Investments in long-lived projects such as buildings are characterized by uncertainties regarding project life, operation and maintenance costs, revenues, and other factors that affect project economics. Since future values of these variable factors are generally not known, it is difficult to make reliable economic evaluations. The traditional approach to project investment analysis is to apply economic methods of project evaluation to "best estimates" of project input variables as if they were certain estimates and then to present results in single-value, deterministic terms. When projects are evaluated without regard to uncertainty of inputs to the analysis, decision makers have insufficient information to measure and evaluate the risk of investing in a project having a different outcome from what is expected. Although the technical literature treats uncertainty and risk analysis extensively, a recent survey shows that applications are still far behind theoretical capabilities. Several reasons might be hypothesized for this lag in implementation. First, practicing analysts anticipate high costs and time-consuming analyses in evaluating risk. Yet computers reduce considerably the costs and time for risk analysis. Second, analysts are concerned about the lack of data. The more uncertain the input data, however, the more helpful it would be to account for the uncertainty and to evaluate the associated risk. Third, decision makers, particularly top managers in corporations or government agencies, are reluctant to accept these techniques because they are not confident that the techniques will help them make better decisions. This reluctance may stem in part from a lack of understanding of the techniques. A comprehensive examination of the different approaches to treating uncertainty and risk in project evaluation would show how the application of risk analysis techniques to uncertain data can improve management decision making. This report is intended as the basis for a new ASTM standard on how to account for uncertainty and risk in economic evaluations of buildings and building components. The approach is tutorial and relatively comprehensive to build understanding of the appropriate concepts and techniques among engineers, architects, and economists of the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) Subcommittee who will develop the new standard. The report is also intended for professionals, educators, students, and managers who are interested in applying these techniques to the economic evaluation of buildings.
Author: Andreas Würfel Publisher: diplom.de ISBN: 3832473076 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 120
Book Description
Inhaltsangabe:Abstract: This paper evaluates the real options approach (ROA) as a means for appraising capital investments under uncertainty. Globalisation and growing competitiveness have led to an increase in uncertainty with regard to companies decision making. Flexibility to react to this uncertainty has become more important. The question arises whether there is a need for a further investment appraisal technique or whether traditional techniques can cope with that. A growing literature about real options shows that traditional investment appraisal techniques do not value flexibility. That is why ROA has become more important within recent years. However, the degree of its utilisation by companies seems to be rather low. Three possible reasons for that are examined: ROA is not well-known by companies, especially small- and medium-sized enterprises. ROA is only limitedly applicable. ROA is too difficult to use. After traditional investment appraisal techniques have been outlined, the real options approach is illustrated by means of a case study. The possible range of application is assessed by reviewing the literature. A survey was conducted to check whether companies know about or apply that technique, and to identify the tools used by companies. This study shows that while the range of possible applications of real options is rather vast, ROA is rarely known by German and British companies and barely applied. One reason might be, that most books and articles are of rather academic nature. This seems to have been realised since books with a focus on practical application have been published recently. The complexity of ROA seems to be a further reason for its low degree of utilisation. Companies tend to use simpler but more comprehensible techniques although these methods have some major drawbacks. However, business science should not end in itself but serve businesses. Therefore, further emphasis has to be put on making real options approachable for practitioners. Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents: I.Abstract2 II.Acknowledgements3 III.Table of Contents4 IV.List of Figures7 V.List of Abbreviations8 1.Introduction9 2.Characteristics of Investment Decisions11 2.1What Is a Capital Investment?11 2.2Risk and Uncertainty12 3.Tools for Investment Appraisals15 3.1Static Methods15 3.2Discounted Cash Flow Approaches (Dynamic)17 3.3Approaches Which Try to Deal With Risk20 4.The Real Options Approach24 4.1Why Use Real Options to [...]
Author: Don Dayananda Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 113943487X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 290
Book Description
This book explains the financial appraisal of capital budgeting projects. The coverage extends from the development of basic concepts, principles and techniques to the application of them in increasingly complex and real-world situations. Identification and estimation (including forecasting) of cash flows, project appraisal formulae, and the application of net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR) and other project evaluation criteria are illustrated with a variety of calculation examples. Risk analysis is extensively covered by the use of risk adjusted discount rate, certainty equivalent, sensitivity, simulation and Monte Carlo analysis. The NPV and IRR models are further applied to forestry, property and international investments. Resource constraints are introduced to the capital budgeting decisions with a variety of worked examples using linear programming technique. All calculations are extensively supported by Excel workbooks on the Web, and each chapter is well reviewed by end of chapter questions.
Author: Shlomo Reutlinger
Author: Shlomo Reutlinger
Author: Uwe Götze
Author: Martin Rogers
Author: P.F. Ricci
Author: Jock R. Anderson
Author: Uwe Götze
Author: Martina Röhrich
Author: Harold E. Marshall
Author: Andreas Würfel
Author: Don Dayananda