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Author: Henry Ely Kyburg Publisher: ISBN: Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 278
Book Description
Truth and probability; Foresight: its logical laws, its subjective sources; The bases of probability; Subjective probability as the measure of a non-measurable set; The elicitation of personal probabilities; Probability: beware of falsifications; Probable knowledge.
Author: Henry Ely Kyburg Publisher: ISBN: Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 278
Book Description
Truth and probability; Foresight: its logical laws, its subjective sources; The bases of probability; Subjective probability as the measure of a non-measurable set; The elicitation of personal probabilities; Probability: beware of falsifications; Probable knowledge.
Author: Persi Diaconis Publisher: Princeton University Press ISBN: 0691196397 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 272
Book Description
In the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, gamblers and mathematicians transformed the idea of chance from a mystery into the discipline of probability, setting the stage for a series of breakthroughs that enabled or transformed innumerable fields, from gambling, mathematics, statistics, economics, and finance to physics and computer science. This book tells the story of ten great ideas about chance and the thinkers who developed them, tracing the philosophical implications of these ideas as well as their mathematical impact.
Author: George Wright Publisher: ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 608
Book Description
This overview of subjective probability ranges from discussion of the philosophy of axiom systems through studies in the psychological laboratory to the real world of business decision-making.
Author: Roger M. Cooke Publisher: Oxford University Press ISBN: 0195362373 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 334
Book Description
This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.
Author: Steven G. Vick Publisher: ASCE Publications ISBN: 0784470863 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 469
Book Description
Observing at a risk analysis conference for civil engineers that participants did not share a common language of probability, Vick, a consultant and geotechnic engineer, set out to not only examine why, but to also bridge the gap. He reexamines three elements at the core of engineering the concepts
Author: David F. Anderson Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 110824498X Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 447
Book Description
This classroom-tested textbook is an introduction to probability theory, with the right balance between mathematical precision, probabilistic intuition, and concrete applications. Introduction to Probability covers the material precisely, while avoiding excessive technical details. After introducing the basic vocabulary of randomness, including events, probabilities, and random variables, the text offers the reader a first glimpse of the major theorems of the subject: the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem. The important probability distributions are introduced organically as they arise from applications. The discrete and continuous sides of probability are treated together to emphasize their similarities. Intended for students with a calculus background, the text teaches not only the nuts and bolts of probability theory and how to solve specific problems, but also why the methods of solution work.
Author: Michael Eid Publisher: Guilford Press ISBN: 1606230735 Category : Psychology Languages : en Pages : 561
Book Description
This authoritative volume reviews the breadth of current scientific knowledge on subjective well-being (SWB): its definition, causes and consequences, measurement, and practical applications that may help people become happier. Leading experts explore the connections between SWB and a range of intrapersonal and interpersonal phenomena, including personality, health, relationship satisfaction, wealth, cognitive processes, emotion regulation, religion, family life, school and work experiences, and culture. Interventions and practices that enhance SWB are examined, with attention to both their benefits and limitations. The concluding chapter from Ed Diener dispels common myths in the field and presents a thoughtful agenda for future research.
Author: Henry Ely Kyburg
Author: Henry Ely Kyburg
Author: Persi Diaconis
Author: Henry Ely Kyburg
Author: George Wright
Author: Richard Jeffrey
Author: Roger M. Cooke
Author: Steven G. Vick
Author: David F. Anderson
Author: Ellery Eells
Author: Michael Eid