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Author: Hans R. Stoll Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1461557070 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 143
Book Description
Since the US stock market crashed on October 19, 1987, many studies have been conducted to learn from this experience in the hopes of avoiding a similarly adverse future fall. The book, originally published as a special issue of the Journal of Financial Services Research, considers some of the important policy adjustments that have been implemented in the wake of the 1987 crash. Taken separately and together, these five papers offer a synthesis and summary of the most important policy innovations that have evolved since the largest single-day decline in stock market history.
Author: Hans R. Stoll Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1461557070 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 143
Book Description
Since the US stock market crashed on October 19, 1987, many studies have been conducted to learn from this experience in the hopes of avoiding a similarly adverse future fall. The book, originally published as a special issue of the Journal of Financial Services Research, considers some of the important policy adjustments that have been implemented in the wake of the 1987 crash. Taken separately and together, these five papers offer a synthesis and summary of the most important policy innovations that have evolved since the largest single-day decline in stock market history.
Author: William T Ziemba Publisher: World Scientific ISBN: 9813223863 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 309
Book Description
'Overall, the book provides an interesting and useful synthesis of the authors’ research on the predictions of stock market crashes. The book can be recommended to anyone interested in the Bond Stock Earnings Yield Differential model, and similar methods to predict crashes.'Quantitative FinanceThis book presents studies of stock market crashes big and small that occur from bubbles bursting or other reasons. By a bubble we mean that prices are rising just because they are rising and that prices exceed fundamental values. A bubble can be a large rise in prices followed by a steep fall. The focus is on determining if a bubble actually exists, on models to predict stock market declines in bubble-like markets and exit strategies from these bubble-like markets. We list historical great bubbles of various markets over hundreds of years.We present four models that have been successful in predicting large stock market declines of ten percent plus that average about minus twenty-five percent. The bond stock earnings yield difference model was based on the 1987 US crash where the S&P 500 futures fell 29% in one day. The model is based on earnings yields relative to interest rates. When interest rates become too high relative to earnings, there almost always is a decline in four to twelve months. The initial out of sample test was on the Japanese stock market from 1948-88. There all twelve danger signals produced correct decline signals. But there were eight other ten percent plus declines that occurred for other reasons. Then the model called the 1990 Japan huge -56% decline. We show various later applications of the model to US stock declines such as in 2000 and 2007 and to the Chinese stock market. We also compare the model with high price earnings decline predictions over a sixty year period in the US. We show that over twenty year periods that have high returns they all start with low price earnings ratios and end with high ratios. High price earnings models have predictive value and the BSEYD models predict even better. Other large decline prediction models are call option prices exceeding put prices, Warren Buffett's value of the stock market to the value of the economy adjusted using BSEYD ideas and the value of Sotheby's stock. Investors expect more declines than actually occur. We present research on the positive effects of FOMC meetings and small cap dominance with Democratic Presidents. Marty Zweig was a wall street legend while he was alive. We discuss his methods for stock market predictability using momentum and FED actions. These helped him become the leading analyst and we show that his ideas still give useful predictions in 2016-2017. We study small declines in the five to fifteen percent range that are either not expected or are expected but when is not clear. For these we present methods to deal with these situations.The last four January-February 2016, Brexit, Trump and French elections are analzyed using simple volatility-S&P 500 graphs. Another very important issue is can you exit bubble-like markets at favorable prices. We use a stopping rule model that gives very good exit results. This is applied successfully to Apple computer stock in 2012, the Nasdaq 100 in 2000, the Japanese stock and golf course membership prices, the US stock market in 1929 and 1987 and other markets. We also show how to incorporate predictive models into stochastic investment models.
Author: Diana B. Henriques Publisher: Henry Holt ISBN: 1627791647 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 416
Book Description
"The definitive account of the crash of 1987, a cautionary tale of how the U.S. financial system nearly collapsed ... Monday, October 19, 1987, was by far the worst day in Wall Street history. The market fell 22.6 percent--almost twice as bad as the worst day of 1929--equal to a loss of nearly 5,000 points today. But Black Monday was more than just a one-day market crash; it was seven years in the making and threatened the entire U.S. financial system. Drawing on superlative archival research and dozens of original interviews, the award-winning financial journalist Diana B. Henriques weaves a tale of ignored warnings, market delusions, and destructive decisions, a drama that stretches from New York and Washington to Chicago and California. Among the central characters are pension fund managers, bank presidents, government regulators, exchange executives, and a pair of university professors whose bright idea for reducing risk backfires with devastating consequences. As the story hurtles toward a terrible reckoning, the players struggle to avoid a national panic, and unexpected heroes step in to avert total disaster. For thirty years, investors, bankers, and regulators have failed to heed the lessons of Black Monday. But with uncanny precision, all the key fault lines of the devastating crisis of 2008--breakneck automation, poorly understood financial products fueled by vast amounts of borrowed money, fragmented regulation, gigantic herdlike investors--were first exposed as hazards in 1987. A First-Class Catastrophe offers a new way of looking not only at the past but at our financial future as well."--Dust jacket.
Author: Jan Toporowski Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 184
Book Description
The Economics of Financial Markets and the 1987 Crash is a systematic account of the antecedents and economic consequences of the stock market crash of 1987 in the world's major financial centres.
Author: Tim Morris Publisher: ZML Corp LLC ISBN: 1393865119 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 56
Book Description
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Author: Hans R. Stoll
Author: Hans R. Stoll
Author: William T Ziemba
Author: United States. General Accounting Office
Author: Paul de Grauwe
Author: Diana B. Henriques
Author: Edward Knight
Author: Jan Toporowski
Author: Tim Metz
Author: 
Author: Tim Morris