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Author: Thomas E. Berghage Publisher: Xlibris Corporation ISBN: 1499049072 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 240
Book Description
Stock Analysis in the Twenty-First Century and Beyond For years, financial analysts have struggled with the fact that practically all the financial measures used to analyze corporate performance lack predictive power when it comes to forecasting the market performance of the company’s stock. Numerous academic studies have documented and reported this lack of predictability. Correlation coefficients close to zero have been reported for the relationship between stock market performance and such critical financial measures as earnings growth, sales growth, price/earnings ratio, return on equity, intrinsic value (models based on discounted cash flow or dividends), and many more. It is this disconnect between traditional financial measures and the performance of stocks in the marketplace that has led to the now-famous efficient market hypothesis, the cornerstone of modern portfolio theory. To accept the idea that the future performance of stocks is unpredictable is to say that nothing a company does will affect the future performance of its stock in the market, and that is absurd. It would be more accurate to say that everything a company does will affect the future performance of its stock in the market. The problem with this statement is that it makes the forecasting of future stock performance so complex that it removes it from the realm of human solution. Confident in the belief that something other than chance and irrational investors determine future stock prices, several research groups around the world have started exploring the use of intelligent computer programs (programs that self-organize based on environmental feedback). Early results are very promising and have provided a glimpse of the economic forces described by Adam Smith as the invisible hand that guides economic activity. Stock Analysis in the Twenty-First Century and Beyond describes the stock analysis problem and explores one of the more successful efforts to harness the new intelligent computer technology. Many people mistakenly classify Artificially Intelligent (AI) computer systems as a form of quantitative analysis. There are two distinct differences between advanced AI systems and traditional quantitative analysis. They are (1) who makes up the selection rules and weighting and (2) what information is used to discriminate between good- and poor-performing securities. In most quantitative systems, even in an advanced expert system form, humans make up the investment rules and mathematically derive the weightings associated with the rules. Computer systems that depend on outside human intelligence to program their actions are not inherently intelligent. In advanced AI systems, the computer makes up its own rules and weightings. The computer learns from examples of good- and poor-performing stocks and determines its own ways for discriminating between them. The procedures that are derived by the computer are often so complex that they defy human understanding. In addition to making up its own rules, advanced AI systems look at corporate financial data differently. Just like in the human brain, where information is not stored in the brain cells but rather in the connections and relationships between cells, so too is corporate performance information stored in the relationships between financial numbers. Assessing the performance of companies is not so much in the numbers as it is in the connections between the numbers. Financial analysts recognized this early on and have used first-order relational information in the form of financial ratios for many years (price/book, debt/equity, current assets / current liabilities, price/earnings, etc.). Now with advanced AI systems, we are finally able to look at and evaluate high-order interrelationships in financial data that have been far too complex to analyze with less sophisticated systems. These then are the fundamental differences between what has been used in the past and what will be used in the future. Cdr. Thomas E. Berghage
Author: Thomas E. Berghage Publisher: Xlibris Corporation ISBN: 1499049072 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 240
Book Description
Stock Analysis in the Twenty-First Century and Beyond For years, financial analysts have struggled with the fact that practically all the financial measures used to analyze corporate performance lack predictive power when it comes to forecasting the market performance of the company’s stock. Numerous academic studies have documented and reported this lack of predictability. Correlation coefficients close to zero have been reported for the relationship between stock market performance and such critical financial measures as earnings growth, sales growth, price/earnings ratio, return on equity, intrinsic value (models based on discounted cash flow or dividends), and many more. It is this disconnect between traditional financial measures and the performance of stocks in the marketplace that has led to the now-famous efficient market hypothesis, the cornerstone of modern portfolio theory. To accept the idea that the future performance of stocks is unpredictable is to say that nothing a company does will affect the future performance of its stock in the market, and that is absurd. It would be more accurate to say that everything a company does will affect the future performance of its stock in the market. The problem with this statement is that it makes the forecasting of future stock performance so complex that it removes it from the realm of human solution. Confident in the belief that something other than chance and irrational investors determine future stock prices, several research groups around the world have started exploring the use of intelligent computer programs (programs that self-organize based on environmental feedback). Early results are very promising and have provided a glimpse of the economic forces described by Adam Smith as the invisible hand that guides economic activity. Stock Analysis in the Twenty-First Century and Beyond describes the stock analysis problem and explores one of the more successful efforts to harness the new intelligent computer technology. Many people mistakenly classify Artificially Intelligent (AI) computer systems as a form of quantitative analysis. There are two distinct differences between advanced AI systems and traditional quantitative analysis. They are (1) who makes up the selection rules and weighting and (2) what information is used to discriminate between good- and poor-performing securities. In most quantitative systems, even in an advanced expert system form, humans make up the investment rules and mathematically derive the weightings associated with the rules. Computer systems that depend on outside human intelligence to program their actions are not inherently intelligent. In advanced AI systems, the computer makes up its own rules and weightings. The computer learns from examples of good- and poor-performing stocks and determines its own ways for discriminating between them. The procedures that are derived by the computer are often so complex that they defy human understanding. In addition to making up its own rules, advanced AI systems look at corporate financial data differently. Just like in the human brain, where information is not stored in the brain cells but rather in the connections and relationships between cells, so too is corporate performance information stored in the relationships between financial numbers. Assessing the performance of companies is not so much in the numbers as it is in the connections between the numbers. Financial analysts recognized this early on and have used first-order relational information in the form of financial ratios for many years (price/book, debt/equity, current assets / current liabilities, price/earnings, etc.). Now with advanced AI systems, we are finally able to look at and evaluate high-order interrelationships in financial data that have been far too complex to analyze with less sophisticated systems. These then are the fundamental differences between what has been used in the past and what will be used in the future. Cdr. Thomas E. Berghage
Author: Thomas Piketty Publisher: Harvard University Press ISBN: 0674979850 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 817
Book Description
What are the grand dynamics that drive the accumulation and distribution of capital? Questions about the long-term evolution of inequality, the concentration of wealth, and the prospects for economic growth lie at the heart of political economy. But satisfactory answers have been hard to find for lack of adequate data and clear guiding theories. In this work the author analyzes a unique collection of data from twenty countries, ranging as far back as the eighteenth century, to uncover key economic and social patterns. His findings transform debate and set the agenda for the next generation of thought about wealth and inequality. He shows that modern economic growth and the diffusion of knowledge have allowed us to avoid inequalities on the apocalyptic scale predicted by Karl Marx. But we have not modified the deep structures of capital and inequality as much as we thought in the optimistic decades following World War II. The main driver of inequality--the tendency of returns on capital to exceed the rate of economic growth--today threatens to generate extreme inequalities that stir discontent and undermine democratic values if political action is not taken. But economic trends are not acts of God. Political action has curbed dangerous inequalities in the past, the author says, and may do so again. This original work reorients our understanding of economic history and confronts us with sobering lessons for today.
Author: Naomi Roht-Arriaza Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1139458655 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 317
Book Description
Dealing with the aftermath of civil conflict or the fall of a repressive government continues to trouble countries throughout the world. Whereas much of the 1990s was occupied with debates concerning the relative merits of criminal prosecutions and truth commissions, by the end of the decade a consensus emerged that this either/or approach was inappropriate and unnecessary. A second generation of transitional justice experiences have stressed both truth and justice and recognize that a single method may inadequately serve societies rebuilding after conflict or dictatorship. Based on studies in ten countries, this book analyzes how some combine multiple institutions, others experiment with community-level initiatives that draw on traditional law and culture, whilst others combine internal actions with transnational or international ones. The authors argue that transitional justice efforts must also consider the challenges to legitimacy and local ownership emerging after external military intervention or occupation.
Author: Bill M. Williams Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 9780471295419 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 290
Book Description
Händler und erfahrene Privatanleger kommen immer mehr zu dem Schluß, daß die traditionellen Prognosemethoden der fundamentalen oder technischen Analyse offenbar zu widersprüchlichen Ergebnissen kommen. Bei den fundamentalen Analysten geht der Markt eher schwach, bei den technischen Analysten geht er fester. Die Folge von solch gegensätzlichen Signalen ist, daß viele Händler und Anleger sich auf eine Kombination von wissenschaftlicher Theorie und Anlagepsychologie stützen. Bill Williams zeigt hier neue Perspektiven der Marktbeobachtung auf. Er kombiniert Elemente traditioneller technischer Chartmethoden mit Chaostheorie und Psychologie. Das Ergebnis ist ein komplexes, fünfdimensionales Handelsprogramm mit ausführlichen Erläuterungen und Beispielen zu Bereichen wie Fraktalanalyse, Oszillatoren und psychologischen Aspekten. (10/98)
Author: Robert R. Prechter Publisher: New Classics Library ISBN: 9781616040833 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 312
Book Description
Market Analysis for the New Millennium foreshadows sweeping changes in market analysis for the twenty-first century and beyond. Featuring ground-breaking essays by 12 authors, this book builds a compelling case and shows you the evidence that will change the way you view financial markets and market analysis.
Author: William Burckart Publisher: Berrett-Koehler Publishers ISBN: 1523091096 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 154
Book Description
How institutions and individuals can address complex social, financial, and environmental problems on a systemic level—and invest in a more secure future. Investment today has evolved from the basic, conventional approach of the past. Investors have come to recognize the importance of sustainable investment and are more frequently considering environmental and social factors in their decisions. Yet the complexity of the times forces us to recognize and transition to a third stage of investment practice: system-level investing. In this paradigm-shifting book, William Burckart and Steve Lydenberg show how system-level investors support and enhance the health and stability of the social, financial, and environmental systems on which they depend for long-term returns. They preserve and strengthen these fundamental systems while still generating competitive or otherwise acceptable performance. This book is for those investors who believe in that transition. They may be institutions, large or small, concerned about the long-term stability of the environment and society. They may be individual investors who want their children and grandchildren to inherit a just and sustainable world. Whoever they may be, Burckart and Lydenberg show them the what, why, and how of system-level investment in this book: what it means to manage system-level risks and rewards, why it is imperative to do so now, and how to integrate this new way of thinking into their current practice. “Burckart and Lydenberg are the Wayne Gretzkys of investing: Showing us not where investing is, but where it’s going.” —Jon Lukomnik, Managing Partner, Sinclair Capital; Senior Fellow, High Meadows Institute
Author: Burton Richter Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1139486721 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 244
Book Description
Global climate change is one of the most important issues humanity faces today. This book assesses the sensible, senseless and biased proposals for averting the potentially disastrous consequences of global warming, allowing the reader to draw their own conclusions on switching to more sustainable energy provision. Burton Richter is a Nobel Prize-winning scientist who has served on many US and international review committees on climate change and energy issues. He provides a concise overview of our knowledge and uncertainties within climate change science , discusses current energy demand and supply patterns, and the energy options available to cut emissions of greenhouse gases. Written in non-technical language, this book presents a balanced view of options for moving from our heavy reliance on fossil fuels into a much more sustainable energy system, and is accessible to a wide range of readers without scientific backgrounds - students, policymakers, and the concerned citizen.
Author: Chappell Lawson Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 0262361337 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 401
Book Description
Drawing on two decades of government efforts to "secure the homeland," experts offer crucial strategic lessons and detailed recommendations for homeland security. For Americans, the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, crystallized the notion of homeland security. But what does it mean to "secure the homeland" in the twenty-first century? What lessons can be drawn from the first two decades of U.S. government efforts to do so? In Beyond 9/11, leading academic experts and former senior government officials address the most salient challenges of homeland security today.
Author: William J. O'Neil Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional ISBN: 007139480X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 282
Book Description
William J. O'Neil's proven investment advice has earned him millions of loyal followers. And his signature bestseller, How to Make Money in Stocks, contains all the guidance readers need on the entire investment processfrom picking a broker to diversifying a portfolio to making a million in mutual funds. For self-directed investors of all ages and expertise, William J. O'Neil's proven CAN SLIM investment strategy is helping those who follow O'Neil to select winning stocks and create a more powerful portfolio. Based on a 40-year study of the most successful stocks of all time, CAN SLIM is an easy-to-use tool for picking the winners and reducing risk in today's volatile economic environment.
Author: Thomas E. Berghage
Author: Thomas E. Berghage
Author: Thomas Piketty
Author: Daniel C. Montano
Author: Naomi Roht-Arriaza
Author: Bill M. Williams
Author: Robert R. Prechter
Author: William Burckart
Author: Burton Richter
Author: Chappell Lawson
Author: William J. O'Neil