Statistics of Deadly Quarrels PDF Download

Author: Lewis Fry Richardson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Homicide
Languages : en
Pages : 373

View

Book Description

Author: David O. Wilkinson
Publisher: Univ of California Press
ISBN: 9780520038295
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 224

View

Book Description
"Lewis Fry Richardson was one of the first to develop the systematic study of the causes of war; yet his great war data archive, Statistics of Deadly Quarrels, posthumously published, has yet to be fully systematized and assimilated by war-causation scholars. David Wilkinson has reanalyzed Richardson's data and drawn together the results of kindred quantitative work on the causes of war, from others as well as from Richardson. He has translated this classic of international relations literature into contemporary idiom, fully and accurately presenting the substance of Richardson's idea and at the same time bringing it up to date with judicious comment, updating the references to the critical and successor literature, and dealing in some detail with Richardson himself. Professor Wilkinson lists among the findings: (1) the death toll of a war is largely the product of a very few immense wars; (2) most wars do not escalate out of control, they are very likely to be small, brief, and exclusive; (3) great powers have done most of the world's fighting, inflicting and suffering most of the casualties; (4) the propensity of any two groups to fight increases as the ethnocultural differences between them increase. Contemporary peace strategy would therefore seem to be to avoid World War III by promoting superpower detente, and reanimating, accelerating, and civilizing the process of world economic development."--Jacket flap.

Author: Joel David Singer
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 9780471793007
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 440

View

Book Description

Author: Nils Petter Gleditsch
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030315894
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 154

View

Book Description
This is an open access book. Lewis F Richardson (1981-1953), a physicist by training, was a pioneer in meteorology and peace research and remains a towering presence in both fields. This edited volume reviews his work and assesses its influence in the social sciences, notably his work on arms races and their consequences, mathematical models, the size distribution of wars, and geographical features of conflict. It contains brief bibliographies of his main publications and of articles and books written about Richardson and his work and discusses his continuing influence in peace research and international relations as well as his attitude to the ethical responsibilities of a scientist. It will be of interest to a wide range of scholars. This book includes 11 chapters written by Nils Petter Gleditsch, Dina A Zinnes, Ron Smith, Paul F Diehl, Kelly Kadera, Mark Crescenzi, Michael D Ward, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, Nils B Weidmann, Jürgen Scheffran, Niall MacKay, Aaron Clauset, Michael Spagat and Stijn van Weezel. Lewis F Richardson occupied an important position in two academic fields as different as meteorology and peace research, with academic prizes awarded in both disciplines. In peace research, he pioneered the use of mathematical models and the meticulous compilation of databases for empirical research. As a quaker and pacifist, he refused to work in preparations for war, paid a heavy prize in terms of his career, and (at least in the social sciences) was fully recognized as a pioneering scholar only posthumously with the publication of two major books. Lewis Fry Richardson is one of the 20th century’s greatest but least appreciated thinkers—a creative physicist, psychologist, meteorologist, applied mathematician, historian, pacifist, statistician, and witty stylist. If you’ve heard of weather prediction, chaos, fractals, cliometrics, peace science, big data, thick tails, or black swans, then you have benefited from Richardson’s prescience in bringing unruly phenomena into the ambit of scientific understanding. Richardson’s ideas continue to be relevant today, and this collection is a superb retrospective on this brilliant and lovable man. Steven Pinker, Johnstone Professor, Harvard University, and the author of The Better Angels of Our Nature and Enlightenment Now

Author: Brian Hayes
Publisher: Macmillan + ORM
ISBN: 1429938579
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 284

View

Book Description
“A refreshing collection of superb mathematical essays . . . from choosing up sides to choosing names, the topics are intriguingly nonstandard . . . First-rate.” —John Allen Paulos, author of Innumeracy A science and technology journalist and essayist whose work has appeared in multiple anthologies, Brian Hayes now presents a selection of his most memorable pieces—including the National Magazine Award–winning “Clock of Ages”—in this enjoyable volume. In addition, Hayes embellishes the collection with an overall scene-setting preface, reconfigured illustrations, and a refreshingly self-critical “Afterthoughts” section appended to each essay. “You don’t have to be a geek to appreciate Hayes’s lively, self-effacing style . . . The first essay explains how clockmakers developed the gears and linkages that enabled fabled medieval clocks to reach remarkable accuracy, as well as predict the day Easter would fall on. Other essays celebrate the notion of random numbers and why they are so hard to achieve. Numerical analysis also plays a role in economic models based on the kinetic theory of gases or simplified markets involving iterations of buying and selling. Hayes goes on to explain how statistics have been applied to compute which quarrels—from interpersonal to world wars—are the deadliest (surprising results here) . . . Challenging but rewarding for anyone intrigued by numbers.” —Kirkus Reviews “As much as any book I can name, Group Theory in the Bedroom conveys to a general audience the playfulness involved in doing mathematics: how questions arise as a form of play, how our first attempts at answering questions usually seem naive in hindsight but are crucial for finding eventual solutions, and how a good solution just feels right.” —David Austin, Notices of the AMS

Author: Hugh Miall
Publisher: Polity
ISBN: 9780745620350
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 270

View

Book Description
This is the first integrated survey of conflict resolution since the Cold War, offering an ideal introduction to the subject and an authoritative assessment of its current stage of development.

Author: Lawrence H. Keeley
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199880700
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 264

View

Book Description
The myth of the peace-loving "noble savage" is persistent and pernicious. Indeed, for the last fifty years, most popular and scholarly works have agreed that prehistoric warfare was rare, harmless, unimportant, and, like smallpox, a disease of civilized societies alone. Prehistoric warfare, according to this view, was little more than a ritualized game, where casualties were limited and the effects of aggression relatively mild. Lawrence Keeley's groundbreaking War Before Civilization offers a devastating rebuttal to such comfortable myths and debunks the notion that warfare was introduced to primitive societies through contact with civilization (an idea he denounces as "the pacification of the past"). Building on much fascinating archeological and historical research and offering an astute comparison of warfare in civilized and prehistoric societies, from modern European states to the Plains Indians of North America, War Before Civilization convincingly demonstrates that prehistoric warfare was in fact more deadly, more frequent, and more ruthless than modern war. To support this point, Keeley provides a wide-ranging look at warfare and brutality in the prehistoric world. He reveals, for instance, that prehistorical tactics favoring raids and ambushes, as opposed to formal battles, often yielded a high death-rate; that adult males falling into the hands of their enemies were almost universally killed; and that surprise raids seldom spared even women and children. Keeley cites evidence of ancient massacres in many areas of the world, including the discovery in South Dakota of a prehistoric mass grave containing the remains of over 500 scalped and mutilated men, women, and children (a slaughter that took place a century and a half before the arrival of Columbus). In addition, Keeley surveys the prevalence of looting, destruction, and trophy-taking in all kinds of warfare and again finds little moral distinction between ancient warriors and civilized armies. Finally, and perhaps most controversially, he examines the evidence of cannibalism among some preliterate peoples. Keeley is a seasoned writer and his book is packed with vivid, eye-opening details (for instance, that the homicide rate of prehistoric Illinois villagers may have exceeded that of the modern United States by some 70 times). But he also goes beyond grisly facts to address the larger moral and philosophical issues raised by his work. What are the causes of war? Are human beings inherently violent? How can we ensure peace in our own time? Challenging some of our most dearly held beliefs, Keeley's conclusions are bound to stir controversy.

Author: Steven Pinker
Publisher: Penguin Books
ISBN: 0143122010
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 834

View

Book Description
Faced with the ceaseless stream of news about war, crime, and terrorism, one could easily think this is the most violent age ever seen. Yet as bestselling author Pinker shows in this startling and engaging new work, just the opposite is true.

Author: Philip Vos Fellman
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1493917056
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 294

View

Book Description
This book follows the methodologies of complex adaptive systems research in their application to addressing the problems of terrorism, specifically terrorist networks, their structure and various methods of mapping and interdicting them as well as exploring the complex landscape of network-centric and irregular warfare. A variety of new models and approaches are presented here, including Dynamic Network Analysis, DIME/PMESII models, percolation models and emergent models of insurgency. In addition, the analysis is informed by practical experience, with analytical and policy guidance from authors who have served within the U.S. Department of Defense, the British Ministry of Defence as well as those who have served in a civilian capacity as advisors on terrorism and counter-terrorism.

Author: Lewis F. Richardson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Numerical weather forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 258

View

Book Description