Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates PDF Download

Author: Sherman Kent
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Intelligence service
Languages : en
Pages : 248

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Book Description
A selection of Kent's recently declassified writings on the occasion of the Conference on Estimating Soviet Military Power, 1950-1984, which Harvard University's Charles Warren Center for Studies in American History and the CIA's Center for the Study of Intelligence are co-sponsoring in Cambridge in December, 1994.

Author: Donald P. Steury, Editor
Publisher: Lulu.com
ISBN: 1257781898
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 214

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Book Description
These collected essays by Sherman Kent were edited by Donald P. Steury and published in 1994 by the History Staff of the Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, Washington D.C. Kent was chairman of the Board of National Estimates from 1952 - 1967 and these declassified essays represent the essence of his thinking on estimate preparation as well as important historical background on the methodology used before and during his tenure. The foreword is by J. Kenneth McDonald, then (1994) chief of the CIA History Staff and the text includes some security-related redactions. This book, long out of print, is a foundational text in the study of intelligence analysis. For the general non-fiction reading public, Kent's illustrative anecdotes about De Gaulle, Bedell Smith, Dean Acheson, etc., offer color and interest, as does his "lessons learned" essay on analysis failure in predicting Soviet missile deliveries to Cuba.

Author: Sherman Kent
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 069127374X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 258

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Book Description
The classic book that established the principles and methods of modern intelligence analysis With the outbreak of the Second World War, historian Sherman Kent left his classroom at Yale to join the Office of Strategic Services—the forerunner of the Central Intelligence Agency—where he adapted scholarly methods to the rigors and unique challenges of producing actionable intelligence in support of the war effort. In this remarkable book, Kent draws on the lessons he learned in wartime to lay the foundations for postwar security. He presents the doctrine and practices of intelligence analysis and explains why they are vital to national survival. Strategic Intelligence for American World Policy shows how intelligence activities and their consequences extend far beyond military considerations and are as essential to keeping the peace as they are to winning the war.

Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
ISBN: 9781646794973
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 158

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Book Description
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Author: Sherman Kent
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309163420
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 116

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Book Description
The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.

Author: Thomas Fingar
Publisher: Stanford University Press
ISBN: 080477594X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 192

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Book Description
This book describes what Intelligence Community (IC) analysts do, how they do it, and how they are affected by the political context that shapes, uses, and sometimes abuses their output. It is written by a 25-year intelligence professional.

Author: Richards J Heuer
Publisher: Pickle Partners Publishing
ISBN: 1839743050
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 336

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Book Description
In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.

Author: Joshua Rovner
Publisher: Cornell University Press
ISBN: 0801463149
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 276

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Book Description
What is the role of intelligence agencies in strategy and policy? How do policymakers use (or misuse) intelligence estimates? When do intelligence-policy relations work best? How do intelligence-policy failures influence threat assessment, military strategy, and foreign policy? These questions are at the heart of recent national security controversies, including the 9/11 attacks and the war in Iraq. In both cases the relationship between intelligence and policy broke down—with disastrous consequences. In Fixing the Facts, Joshua Rovner explores the complex interaction between intelligence and policy and shines a spotlight on the problem of politicization. Major episodes in the history of American foreign policy have been closely tied to the manipulation of intelligence estimates. Rovner describes how the Johnson administration dealt with the intelligence community during the Vietnam War; how President Nixon and President Ford politicized estimates on the Soviet Union; and how pressure from the George W. Bush administration contributed to flawed intelligence on Iraq. He also compares the U.S. case with the British experience between 1998 and 2003, and demonstrates that high-profile government inquiries in both countries were fundamentally wrong about what happened before the war.

Author: Loch K. Johnson
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199888477
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 903

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Book Description
The Oxford Handbook of National Security Intelligence is a state-of-the-art work on intelligence and national security. Edited by Loch Johnson, one of the world's leading authorities on the subject, the handbook examines the topic in full, beginning with an examination of the major theories of intelligence. It then shifts its focus to how intelligence agencies operate, how they collect information from around the world, the problems that come with transforming "raw" information into credible analysis, and the difficulties in disseminating intelligence to policymakers. It also considers the balance between secrecy and public accountability, and the ethical dilemmas that covert and counterintelligence operations routinely present to intelligence agencies. Throughout, contributors factor in broader historical and political contexts that are integral to understanding how intelligence agencies function in our information-dominated age.