Introduction to the Scenario Approach PDF Download

Author: Marco C. Campi
Publisher: SIAM
ISBN: 1611975433
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 121

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Book Description
This book is about making decisions driven by experience. In this context, a scenario is an observation that comes from the environment, and scenario optimization refers to optimizing decisions over a set of available scenarios. Scenario optimization can be applied across a variety of fields, including machine learning, quantitative finance, control, and identification. This concise, practical book provides readers with an easy access point to make the scenario approach understandable to nonexperts, and offers an overview of various decision frameworks in which the method can be used. It contains numerous examples and diverse applications from a broad range of domains, including systems theory, control, biomedical engineering, economics, and finance. Practitioners can find "easy-to-use recipes," while theoreticians will benefit from a rigorous treatment of the theoretical foundations of the method, making it an excellent starting point for scientists interested in doing research in this field. Introduction to the Scenario Approach will appeal to scientists working in optimization, practitioners working in myriad fields involving decision-making, and anyone interested in data-driven decision-making.

Author: Thomas J. Chermack
Publisher: Berrett-Koehler Publishers
ISBN: 1605099082
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 379

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Book Description
Scenario planning helps organization leaders, executives and decision-makers envision and develop strategies for multiple possible futures instead of just one. It enables organizations to become resilient and agile, carefully calibrating their responses and adapting quickly to new circumstances in a fast-changing environment. This book is the most comprehensive treatment to date of the scenario planning process. Unlike existing books it offers a thorough discussion of the evolution and theoretical foundations of scenario planning, examining its connections to learning theory, decision-making theory, mental model theory and more. Chermack emphasizes that scenario planning is far more than a simple set of steps to follow, as so many other practice-focused books do—he addresses the subtleties and complexities of planning. And, unique among scenario planning books, he deals not just with developing different scenarios but also with applying scenarios once they have been constructed, and assessing the impact of the scenario project. Using a case study based on a real scenario project Chermack lays out a comprehensive five phase scenario planning system—project preparation, scenario exploration, scenario development, scenario implementation and project assessment. Each chapter describes specific techniques for gathering and analyzing relevant data with a particular emphasis on the use of workshops to encourage dialogue. He offers a scenario project worksheet to help readers structure and manage scenario projects as well as avoid common pitfalls, and a discussion, based in recent neurological findings, of how scenario planning helps people to overcome barriers to creative thinking. “This book is about action and performance. Compelling and thoroughly researched, it offers every business executive a playbook for including uncertainty in the organizational change process and driving competitive advantage”. -- Tim Reynolds, Vice President, Talent and Organization Effectiveness, Whirlpool Corporation

Author: Ruth C. Clark
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118127250
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 278

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Book Description
Scenario-Based e-Learning Scenario-Based e-Learning offers a new instructional design approach that can accelerate expertise, build critical thinking skills, and promote transfer of learning. This book focuses on the what, when, and how of scenario-based e-learning for workforce learning. Throughout the book, Clark defines and demystifies scenario-based e-learning by offering a practical design model illustrated with examples from veterinary science, automotive troubleshooting, sales and loan analysis among other industries. Filled with helpful guidelines and a wealth of illustrative screen shots, this book offers you the information needed to: Identify the benefits of a SBeL design for learners and learning outcomes Determine when SBeL might be appropriate for your needs Identify specific outcomes of SBeL relevant to common organizational goals Classify specific instructional goals into one or more learning domains Apply a design model to present content in a task-centered context Evaluate outcomes from SBeL lessons Identify tacit expert knowledge using cognitive task analysis techniques Make a business case for SBeL in your organization Praise for Scenario-Based e-Learning "Clark has done it again—with her uncanny ability to make complex ideas accessible to practitioners, the guidelines in this book provide an important resource for you to build your own online, problem-centered instructional strategies." —M. David Merrill, professor emeritus at Utah State University; author, First Principles of Instruction "Clark's wonderful book provides a solid explanation of the how, what, and why of scenario-based e-learning. The tools, techniques, and resources in this book provide a roadmap for creating engaging, informative scenarios that lead to tangible, measurable learning outcomes. If you want to design more engaging e-learning, you need to read this book." —Karl M. Kapp, Professor of Instructional Technology, Bloomsburg University; author, The Gamification of Learning and Instruction

Author: Robert Goodspeed
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781558444003
Category : City planning
Languages : en
Pages : 288

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Book Description
""Describes the emerging use of collaborative scenario planning practices in urban and regional planning, and includes case studies, an overview of digital tools, and a project evaluation framework. Concludes with a discussion of how scenarios can be used to address urban inequalities. Intended for a broad audience"--Provided by the publisher"--

Author: Woody Wade
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118170156
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 212

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Book Description
Is your business ready for the future? Scenario planning is a fascinating, yet still underutilized, business tool that can be of immense value to a company's strategic planning process. It allows companies to visualize the impact that a portfolio of possible futures could have on their competitiveness. It helps decision-makers see opportunities and threats that could emerge beyond their normal planning horizon. Scenario Planning serves as a guide to taking a long-term look at your business, your industry, and the world, posing thoughtful questions about the possible consequences of some current (and possible future) trends. This book will help you: Outline (and help you prepare for) any trends that could play out in the future that could change the political, social, and economic landscapes and significantly impact your business Explore the impact of technological advances and the emergence of new competitors to your business Examine challenges that are only dimly recognizable as potential problems today This visual book will help you answer this question: Is my organization ready for every possibility?

Author: Yasmeen Abutaleb
Publisher: HarperCollins
ISBN: 0063066076
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 496

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Book Description
Instant #1 New York Times and Wall Street Journal bestseller From the Washington Post journalists Yasmeen Abutaleb and Damian Paletta—the definitive account of the Trump administration’s tragic mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the chaos, incompetence, and craven politicization that has led to more than a half million American deaths and counting. Since the day Donald Trump was elected, his critics warned that an unexpected crisis would test the former reality-television host—and they predicted that the president would prove unable to meet the moment. In 2020, that crisis came to pass, with the outcomes more devastating and consequential than anyone dared to imagine. Nightmare Scenario is the complete story of Donald Trump’s handling—and mishandling—of the COVID-19 catastrophe, during the period of January 2020 up to Election Day that year. Yasmeen Abutaleb and Damian Paletta take us deep inside the White House, from the Situation Room to the Oval Office, to show how the members of the administration launched an all-out war against the health agencies, doctors, and scientific communities, all in their futile attempts to wish away the worst global pandemic in a century. From the initial discovery of this new coronavirus, President Trump refused to take responsibility, disputed the recommendations of his own pandemic task force, claimed the virus would “just disappear,” mocked advocates for safe-health practices, and encouraged his base and the entire GOP to ignore or rescind public health safety measures. Abutaleb and Paletta reveal the numerous times officials tried to dissuade Trump from following his worst impulses as he defied recommendations from the experts and even members of his own administration. And they show how the petty backstabbing and rivalries among cabinet members, staff, and aides created a toxic environment of blame, sycophancy, and political pressure that did profound damage to the public health institutions that Americans needed the most during this time. Even after an outbreak in the fall that swept through the White House and infected Trump himself, he remained defiant in his approach to the virus, very likely costing him his own reelection. Based on exhaustive reporting and hundreds of hours of interviews from inside the disaster zone at all levels of authority, Nightmare Scenario is a riveting account of how the United States government failed its people as never before, a tragedy whose devastating aftershocks will linger and be felt by generations to come.

Author: David Borgenicht
Publisher: Chronicle Books
ISBN: 0811873579
Category : Reference
Languages : en
Pages : 289

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Book Description
The authors of the phenomenally best-selling Worst-Case Scenario Survival series have taught millions to prepare for the worst—but how can readers be sure they're really ready? The Worst-Case Scenario Book of Survival Questions collects hundreds of survival dilemmas and questions designed to test true survival skill and daring. Fifty percent longer than the handbooks, this challenging, interactive, and informative book is packed with survival trivia, expert tips, adventurous situations, and illustrations. Your car is careening toward a 20-foot drop into a river: do you leap from the car immediately, or wait to swim free once it begins to sink? Is it worse to be lost in the jungle during the day or in the desert at night? If you had to perform an emergency tracheotomy, where would you make the incision? In hundreds of multiple-choice quizzes, story problems, and questions, The Worst-Case Scenario Book of Survival Questions provides need-to-know answers to life's unexpected turns for the worst. Also included is a Worst-Case Scenario Aptitude Test (WCSAT), which can be scored at home to ensure optimum readiness. Don't wait until it's too late!

Author: Ray Jimenez
Publisher: Lulu.com
ISBN: 0979184746
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 216

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Book Description

Author: George Cairns
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319490672
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 287

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Book Description
Develops scenario planning methods in ways that link scenario analysis to improved decision making, engage time-poor senior decision makers, attenuate decision makers’ tendency to deflect responsibility for bleak, negative scenario outcomes, and enhance causal analysis within scenario-storyline development. What if? Two of the most powerful – and frightening – words in business. Almost as bad as “I didn’t see that coming.” Some things that transform the marketplace overnight come from nowhere. Some things that create potentially critical under-performance are genuinely unforeseeable. Sometimes it is impossible to predict how a change in an organizational strategy will play out. Some things and sometimes – but not many and not often. Decision makers in organizations face more-and-more complex and ambiguous problems that need to be addressed under time pressure - and the need for practical decision support has become essential. The range of methods in this book will enable you to be prepared, proactive and resilient no matter what the future brings. Based on up-to-date academic research and years of application and iteration in the real world, this book, illustrated with examples of the value delivered in Europe, Australia and the Middle East, will transfer practical skills in scenario thinking using step-by-step instructions. This thoroughly revised and expanded second edition introduces these new approaches in detail, with clear guidelines and examples to enable the reader to select and implement the most appropriate scenario method to suit the issue at hand – considering the timeframe for its investigation, the resources available and the outcomes expected.

Author: Suzanne Hetzel Campbell, PhD, APRN-C-IBC
Publisher: Springer Publishing Company
ISBN: 0826122434
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 317

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Book Description
Designated a Doody's Core Title! "Once you begin to read the book, you will not be able to put it down. [An] excellent guide for nursing faculty just getting started with simulations or faculty who are already using this pedagogy." Pamela R. Jeffries, DNS, RN, FAAN, ANEF Associate Dean, Indiana University School of Nursing Computerized patient simulation is an exciting and innovative pedagogical method that allows nurse educators to prepare student nurses for the challenges of clinical practice. This book serves as a step-by-step guide to designing and developing simulated scenarios, and integrating them into nursing curriculums. The authors provide concrete information about the use of simulation in a variety of programs, courses, and schools with flexible simulator uses, including live actors and static mannequins. This book also provides options for building a learning resource center, and offers guidance on faculty development. Additionally, the contributors present 17 exemplars of actual scenarios in multiple clinical areas, as well as testimonies of practicing faculty. Key Features: Numerous checklists, including health communication checklists, evaluation criteria checklists to assess student performance, and debriefing guidelines Forms to enhance the realness of the scenario, such as patient data forms, patient medication forms, and assessment tools Suggested readings, lists of skills necessary for scenario enactment, and websites for further researchThis book will encourage the development of critical thinking, reasoning, and judgment, and help to create a new generation of caring, competent, and confident practitioners.