Author: Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
Real Wages & Business Cycle Asymmetries
Author: Real Wages and Business Cycle Asymmetries
Author: Ulrich WoitekPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Reallohn / Konjunktur / VAR-Modell / Schätzung / Vergleich / USA / Deutschland
Languages : en
Pages : 23
Book Description
The cyclicality of real wages has important implications for the validity of competing business cycle theories. However, the empirical evidence on the aggregate level is inconclusive. Using a threshold vector autoregressive model for the US and Germany to condition the relationship between real wages and business fluctuations on the phase of the cycle, it is demonstrated that the inconclusive evidence is not only caused by measurement problems, estimation method and composition bias as discussed in the literature. In addition, one should also consider whether the economy is in an upswing or a downswing. In general, the evidence for countercyclical wages is stronger in Germany than for the US, but taken together there is no clear systematic pattern.
Hysteresis and Business Cycles
Author: Ms.Valerie CerraPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513536990
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50
Book Description
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Real Wage Responsiveness to Unemployment in Spain
Author: Paulino FontPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 24
Book Description
We estimate real wage cyclicality in the period between 1987 and 2013 using a large administrative dataset of workers in Spain. Real wages are weakly procyclical in Spain and, focusing on different phases of the business cycle, we find significant differences between expansions and recessions, with even lower real wage cyclicality in recessions. Furthermore, higher levels of unemployment do not translate into additional real wage adjustments when the economy is contracting, while lower levels of unemployment during expansions have incremental effects on wage elasticity. This general result holds after accounting for differences in tenure, type of contract and age. Nevertheless, wages of newly hired workers are the most sensitive to the business cycle and exhibit the lowest asymmetric pattern between expansions and recessions. At the other end of the scale, wages of workers with more than six years' tenure provide the most protection against economic downturns. The same is true for fixed-term vs. permanent workers and for young vs. older workers.
The American Business Cycle
Author: Robert J. GordonPublisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226304590
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 882
Book Description
In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.
Business Cycles, Economic Crises, and the Poor
Author: Pierre-Richard AgénorPublisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category : Ciclo de negocios
Languages : en
Pages : 36
Book Description
The Causes of Business Cycles and the Cyclicality of Real Wages
Author: Charles A. FleishmanPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 48
Book Description
Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic in Industrialized Economies?
Author: James MorleyPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 58
Book Description
We consider a model-averaged forecast-based estimate of the output gap to measure economic slack in ten industrialized economies. Our measure takes changes in the long-run growth rate into account and, by addressing model uncertainty using equal weights on different forecast-based estimates, is robust to different assumptions about the underlying structure of the economy. For all ten countries in the sample, we find that the estimated output gap has much larger negative movements during recessions than positive movements in expansions, suggesting business cycle asymmetry is an intrinsic characteristic of industrialized economies. Furthermore, the estimated output gap is always strongly negatively correlated with future output growth and unemployment and positively correlated with capacity utilization. It also implies a convex Phillips Curve in many cases. The model-averaged output gap is reliable in real time in the sense of being subject to relatively small revisions.
Employment and Business Cycle Asymmetries
Author: Gerard A. PfannPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
Business Cycles
Author: Victor ZarnowitzPublisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226978923
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 613
Book Description
This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.