Prospect Theory PDF Download

Author: Daniel Kahneman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Utility theory
Languages : en
Pages : 27

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Book Description

Author: Leonard C. MacLean
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814417351
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 941

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Book Description
This handbook in two parts covers key topics of the theory of financial decision making. Some of the papers discuss real applications or case studies as well. There are a number of new papers that have never been published before especially in Part II.Part I is concerned with Decision Making Under Uncertainty. This includes subsections on Arbitrage, Utility Theory, Risk Aversion and Static Portfolio Theory, and Stochastic Dominance. Part II is concerned with Dynamic Modeling that is the transition for static decision making to multiperiod decision making. The analysis starts with Risk Measures and then discusses Dynamic Portfolio Theory, Tactical Asset Allocation and Asset-Liability Management Using Utility and Goal Based Consumption-Investment Decision Models.A comprehensive set of problems both computational and review and mind expanding with many unsolved problems are in an accompanying problems book. The handbook plus the book of problems form a very strong set of materials for PhD and Masters courses both as the main or as supplementary text in finance theory, financial decision making and portfolio theory. For researchers, it is a valuable resource being an up to date treatment of topics in the classic books on these topics by Johnathan Ingersoll in 1988, and William Ziemba and Raymond Vickson in 1975 (updated 2 nd edition published in 2006).

Author: Paul W. Glimcher
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0123914698
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 606

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Book Description
In the years since it first published, Neuroeconomics: Decision Making and the Brain has become the standard reference and textbook in the burgeoning field of neuroeconomics. The second edition, a nearly complete revision of this landmark book, will set a new standard. This new edition features five sections designed to serve as both classroom-friendly introductions to each of the major subareas in neuroeconomics, and as advanced synopses of all that has been accomplished in the last two decades in this rapidly expanding academic discipline. The first of these sections provides useful introductions to the disciplines of microeconomics, the psychology of judgment and decision, computational neuroscience, and anthropology for scholars and students seeking interdisciplinary breadth. The second section provides an overview of how human and animal preferences are represented in the mammalian nervous systems. Chapters on risk, time preferences, social preferences, emotion, pharmacology, and common neural currencies—each written by leading experts—lay out the foundations of neuroeconomic thought. The third section contains both overview and in-depth chapters on the fundamentals of reinforcement learning, value learning, and value representation. The fourth section, "The Neural Mechanisms for Choice, integrates what is known about the decision-making architecture into state-of-the-art models of how we make choices. The final section embeds these mechanisms in a larger social context, showing how these mechanisms function during social decision-making in both humans and animals. The book provides a historically rich exposition in each of its chapters and emphasizes both the accomplishments and the controversies in the field. A clear explanatory style and a single expository voice characterize all chapters, making core issues in economics, psychology, and neuroscience accessible to scholars from all disciplines. The volume is essential reading for anyone interested in neuroeconomics in particular or decision making in general. - Editors and contributing authors are among the acknowledged experts and founders in the field, making this the authoritative reference for neuroeconomics - Suitable as an advanced undergraduate or graduate textbook as well as a thorough reference for active researchers - Introductory chapters on economics, psychology, neuroscience, and anthropology provide students and scholars from any discipline with the keys to understanding this interdisciplinary field - Detailed chapters on subjects that include reinforcement learning, risk, inter-temporal choice, drift-diffusion models, game theory, and prospect theory make this an invaluable reference - Published in association with the Society for Neuroeconomics—www.neuroeconomics.org - Full-color presentation throughout with numerous carefully selected illustrations to highlight key concepts

Author: Peter P. Wakker
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1139489100
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 519

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Book Description
Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity, provides a comprehensive and accessible textbook treatment of the way decisions are made both when we have the statistical probabilities associated with uncertain future events (risk) and when we lack them (ambiguity). The book presents models, primarily prospect theory, that are both tractable and psychologically realistic. A method of presentation is chosen that makes the empirical meaning of each theoretical model completely transparent. Prospect theory has many applications in a wide variety of disciplines. The material in the book has been carefully organized to allow readers to select pathways through the book relevant to their own interests. With numerous exercises and worked examples, the book is ideally suited to the needs of students taking courses in decision theory in economics, mathematics, finance, psychology, management science, health, computer science, Bayesian statistics, and engineering.

Author: Michael Borß
Publisher: BoD – Books on Demand
ISBN: 384410500X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 250

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Book Description
There is broad theoretical and empirical evidence that investors exhibit a preference for skewness. However, there is little research regarding the extent to which individuals really favor positive skewness in individual decision making. In this dissertation, a controlled laboratory experiment is used to test for skewness preferences and prudence – a broader third-order risk preference that is closely linked to skewness preferences. Skewness and prudence preferences are further analyzed both within an Expected Utility Theory framework as well as with Cumulative Prospect Theory. For this, a sound experimental setup is used that also excludes any potentially distortionary effects from loss aversion. This dissertation therefore contributes to better understanding of individual risk preferences and other impact factors, such as a more “rational” vs. a more “intuitive” decision making process in individual decision making.

Author: Rose McDermott
Publisher: University of Michigan Press
ISBN: 9780472087877
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 256

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Book Description
Discusses the way leaders deal with risk in making foreign policy decisions

Author: James Ming Chen
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319327119
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 350

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Book Description
This book explains how investor behavior, from mental accounting to the combustible interplay of hope and fear, affects financial economics. The transformation of portfolio theory begins with the identification of anomalies. Gaps in perception and behavioral departures from rationality spur momentum, irrational exuberance, and speculative bubbles. Behavioral accounting undermines the rational premises of mathematical finance. Assets and portfolios are imbued with “affect.” Positive and negative emotions warp investment decisions. Whether hedging against intertemporal changes in their ability to bear risk or climbing a psychological hierarchy of needs, investors arrange their portfolios and financial affairs according to emotions and perceptions. Risk aversion and life-cycle theories of consumption provide possible solutions to the equity premium puzzle, an iconic financial mystery. Prospect theory has questioned the cogency of the efficient capital markets hypothesis. Behavioral portfolio theory arises from a psychological account of security, potential, and aspiration.

Author: Gideon Keren
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118468392
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 1056

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Book Description
A comprehensive, up-to-date examination of the most important theory, concepts, methodological approaches, and applications in the burgeoning field of judgment and decision making (JDM) Emphasizes the growth of JDM applications with chapters devoted to medical decision making, decision making and the law, consumer behavior, and more Addresses controversial topics from multiple perspectives – such as choice from description versus choice from experience – and contrasts between empirical methodologies employed in behavioral economics and psychology Brings together a multi-disciplinary group of contributors from across the social sciences, including psychology, economics, marketing, finance, public policy, sociology, and philosophy 2 Volumes

Author: Philippe N. Tobler
Publisher: Elsevier Inc. Chapters
ISBN: 0128073160
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 69

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Book Description
In this chapter, we describe how risk and ambiguity impact the value of choice options, how this impact can be modelled formally and how it is implemented in the brain. In particular, we give an overview of two distinct ways of how risky choice options can be decomposed – either into outcomes and probabilities as proposed in economics or into statistical moments of the probability distribution like mean, variance, or skewness, as proposed in finance theory. The components of either approach appear to be represented in common and, at least to some extent, in separate brain regions, which include the dopaminergic midbrain, striatum and the orbitofrontal cortex. Activity in different (prefrontal and striatal) brain regions also supports the distinction between decisions from experience, when knowledge about risk is learned through trial and error versus decisions from description, when it is described symbolically. The fact that the principal components of formal models from economics and finance theory and their behavioral versions that provide better descriptive fit are represented in the brain provides converging support for these models.

Author: Daniel Kahneman
Publisher: Farrar, Straus and Giroux
ISBN: 1429969350
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 511

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Book Description
*Major New York Times Bestseller *More than 2.6 million copies sold *One of The New York Times Book Review's ten best books of the year *Selected by The Wall Street Journal as one of the best nonfiction books of the year *Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient *Daniel Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's best-selling The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In his mega bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, world-famous psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Topping bestseller lists for almost ten years, Thinking, Fast and Slow is a contemporary classic, an essential book that has changed the lives of millions of readers.