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Author: Peter J. Coughlin Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 0521360528 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 276
Book Description
Coughlin provides the most comprehensive and integrated analysis of probabilistic voting models available, also developing further his important contributions. Probabilistic voting theory is the mathematical theory of candidate behavior in or in anticipation of elections in which candidates are unsure what voters' preferences will be on all or most issues, which is true of most governmental elections. The theory asks first whether optimal candidate strategies can be determined, given uncertainty about voter preferences, and if so, what exactly those strategies are, given various circumstances. It allows the theorist to predict what public policies will be supported and what laws passed by elected officials when in office and what positions will be taken by them when running in elections. One of the leading contributors to this rapidly developing literature, which is at the leading edge of public choice theory, Coughlin both reviews the existing literature and presents new results that unify and extend developments in the theory that have been scattered in the literature.
Author: Peter J. Coughlin Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 0521360528 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 276
Book Description
Coughlin provides the most comprehensive and integrated analysis of probabilistic voting models available, also developing further his important contributions. Probabilistic voting theory is the mathematical theory of candidate behavior in or in anticipation of elections in which candidates are unsure what voters' preferences will be on all or most issues, which is true of most governmental elections. The theory asks first whether optimal candidate strategies can be determined, given uncertainty about voter preferences, and if so, what exactly those strategies are, given various circumstances. It allows the theorist to predict what public policies will be supported and what laws passed by elected officials when in office and what positions will be taken by them when running in elections. One of the leading contributors to this rapidly developing literature, which is at the leading edge of public choice theory, Coughlin both reviews the existing literature and presents new results that unify and extend developments in the theory that have been scattered in the literature.
Author: James M. Enelow Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 9780521352840 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 266
Book Description
This volume brings together eight original essays designed to provide an overview of developments in spatial voting theory in the past ten years. The topics covered are: spatial competition with possible entry by new candidates; the "heresthetical" manipulation of vote outcomes; candidates with policy preferences; experimental testing of spatial models; probabilistic voting; voting on alternatives with predictive power; elections with more than two candidates under different election systems; and agenda-setting behavior in voting. Leading scholars in these areas summarize the major results of their own and other's work, providing self-contained discussions that will apprise readers of important recent advances.
Author: Mostapha Diss Publisher: Springer Nature ISBN: 3030485986 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 412
Book Description
This book includes up-to-date contributions in the broadly defined area of probabilistic analysis of voting rules and decision mechanisms. Featuring papers from all fields of social choice and game theory, it presents probability arguments to allow readers to gain a better understanding of the properties of decision rules and of the functioning of modern democracies. In particular, it focuses on the legacy of William Gehrlein and Dominique Lepelley, two prominent scholars who have made important contributions to this field over the last fifty years. It covers a range of topics, including (but not limited to) computational and technical aspects of probability approaches, evaluation of the likelihood of voting paradoxes, power indices, empirical evaluations of voting rules, models of voters’ behavior, and strategic voting. The book gathers articles written in honor of Gehrlein and Lepelley along with original works written by the two scholars themselves.
Author: David Austen-Smith Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 354027295X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 332
Book Description
Social choices, about expenditures on government programs, or about public policy more broadly, or indeed from any conceivable set of alternatives, are determined by politics. This book is a collection of essays that tie together the fields spanned by Jeffrey S. Banks' research on this subject. It examines the strategic aspects of political decision-making, including the choices of voters in committees, the positioning of candidates in electoral campaigns, and the behavior of parties in legislatures. The chapters of this book contribute to the theory of voting with incomplete information, to the literature on Downsian and probabilistic voting models of elections, to the theory of social choice in distributive environments, and to the theory of optimal dynamic decision-making. The essays employ a spectrum of research methods, from game-theoretic analysis, to empirical investigation, to experimental testing.
Author: Samuel Merrill Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 9780521665490 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 234
Book Description
Professors Merrill and Grofman develop a unified model that incorporates voter motivations and assesses its empirical predictions--for both voter choice and candidate strategy--in the United States, Norway, and France. The analyses show that a combination of proximity, direction, discounting, and party ID are compatible with the mildly but not extremely divergent policies that are characteristic of many two-party and multiparty electorates. All of these motivations are necessary to understand the linkage between candidate issue positions and voter preferences.
Author: Melvin J. Hinich Publisher: University of Michigan Press ISBN: 0472027395 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 280
Book Description
There is no unified theory that can explain both voter choice and where choices come from. Hinich and Munger fill that gap with their model of political communication based on ideology. Rather than beginning with voters and diffuse, atomistic preferences, Hinich and Munger explore why large groups of voters share preference profiles, why they consider themselves "liberals" or "conservatives." The reasons, they argue, lie in the twin problems of communication and commitment that politicians face. Voters, overloaded with information, ignore specific platform positions. Parties and candidates therefore communicate through simple statements of goals, analogies, and by invoking political symbols. But politicians must also commit to pursuing the actions implied by these analogies and symbols. Commitment requires that ideologies be used consistently, particularly when it is not in the party's short-run interest. The model Hinich and Munger develop accounts for the choices of voters, the goals of politicians, and the interests of contributors. It is an important addition to political science and essential reading for all in that discipline. "Hinich and Munger's study of ideology and the theory of political choice is a pioneering effort to integrate ideology into formal political theory. It is a major step in directing attention toward the way in which ideology influences the nature of political choices." --Douglass C. North ". . . represents a significant contribution to the literature on elections, voting behavior, and social choice." --Policy Currents Melvin Hinich is Professor of Government, University of Texas. Michael C. Munger is Associate Professor of Political Science, University of North Carolina.
Author: Mostapha Diss Publisher: ISBN: 9783030485993 Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This book includes up-to-date contributions in the broadly defined area of probabilistic analysis of voting rules and decision mechanisms. Featuring papers from all fields of social choice and game theory, it presents probability arguments to allow readers to gain a better understanding of the properties of decision rules and of the functioning of modern democracies. In particular, it focuses on the legacy of William Gehrlein and Dominique Lepelley, two prominent scholars who have made important contributions to this field over the last fifty years. It covers a range of topics, including (but not limited to) computational and technical aspects of probability approaches, evaluation of the likelihood of voting paradoxes, power indices, empirical evaluations of voting rules, models of voters' behavior, and strategic voting. The book gathers articles written in honor of Gehrlein and Lepelley along with original works written by the two scholars themselves.
Author: Lionel Daniel Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 52
Book Description
If we envisage delegating critical decisions to an autonomous computer, we should not only endow it with common sense, but also formally verify that such a machine is programmed to safely react in every situation, notably when the situation is depicted with uncertainty. In this thesis, I deem an uncertain situation to be a possibly inconsistent probabilistic propositional knowledge base, which is a possibly unsatisfiable multiset of constraints on a probability distribution over a propositional language, where each constraint can be given a reliability level. The main problem is to infer one probabilistic distribution that best represents the real world, with respect to a given knowledge base. The reactions of the computer, previously programmed then verified, will be determined by that distribution, which is the probabilistic model of the real world. J.B. Paris et al stated a set of seven commonsensical principles that characterises the inference from consistent knowledge bases. Following their approach, I suggest adhering to further principles intended to define common sense when reasoning from an inconsistent knowledge base. My contribution is thus the first principled framework of paraconsistent probabilistic reasoning that comprises not only an inference process, which coincides with J.B. Paris's one when dealing with consistent knowledge bases, but also several measures of dissimilarity, inconsistency, incoherence, and precision. Besides, I show that such an inference process is a solution to a problem originating from voting theory, namely reaching a consensus among conflicting opinions about a probability distribution; such a distribution can also represent a distribution of a financial investment. To conclude, this study enhances our understanding of common sense when dealing with inconsistencies; injecting common sense into decision systems should make them more trustworthy.
Author: Peter J. Coughlin
Author: Peter J. Coughlin
Author: James M. Enelow
Author: Mostapha Diss
Author: David Austen-Smith
Author: Source Wikipedia
Author: Samuel Merrill
Author: Melvin J. Hinich
Author: Mostapha Diss
Author: A. Zacharov
Author: Lionel Daniel