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Author: Mark P. Kritzman Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1119895596 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 247
Book Description
A thought-provoking and startlingly insightful reworking of the science of prediction In Prediction Revisited: The Importance of Observation, a team of renowned experts in the field of data-driven investing delivers a ground-breaking reassessment of the delicate science of prediction for anyone who relies on data to contemplate the future. The book reveals why standard approaches to prediction based on classical statistics fail to address the complexities of social dynamics, and it provides an alternative method based on the intuitive notion of relevance. The authors describe, both conceptually and with mathematical precision, how relevance plays a central role in forming predictions from observed experience. Moreover, they propose a new and more nuanced measure of a prediction’s reliability. Prediction Revisited also offers: Clarifications of commonly accepted but less commonly understood notions of statistics Insight into the efficacy of traditional prediction models in a variety of fields Colorful biographical sketches of some of the key prediction scientists throughout history Mutually supporting conceptual and mathematical descriptions of the key insights and methods discussed within With its strikingly fresh perspective grounded in scientific rigor, Prediction Revisited is sure to earn its place as an indispensable resource for data scientists, researchers, investors, and anyone else who aspires to predict the future from the data-driven lessons of the past.
Author: Mark P. Kritzman Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1119895588 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 247
Book Description
A thought-provoking and startlingly insightful reworking of the science of prediction In Prediction Revisited: The Importance of Observation, a team of renowned experts in the field of data-driven investing delivers a ground-breaking reassessment of the delicate science of prediction for anyone who relies on data to contemplate the future. The book reveals why standard approaches to prediction based on classical statistics fail to address the complexities of social dynamics, and it provides an alternative method based on the intuitive notion of relevance. The authors describe, both conceptually and with mathematical precision, how relevance plays a central role in forming predictions from observed experience. Moreover, they propose a new and more nuanced measure of a prediction’s reliability. Prediction Revisited also offers: Clarifications of commonly accepted but less commonly understood notions of statistics Insight into the efficacy of traditional prediction models in a variety of fields Colorful biographical sketches of some of the key prediction scientists throughout history Mutually supporting conceptual and mathematical descriptions of the key insights and methods discussed within With its strikingly fresh perspective grounded in scientific rigor, Prediction Revisited is sure to earn its place as an indispensable resource for data scientists, researchers, investors, and anyone else who aspires to predict the future from the data-driven lessons of the past.
Author: Mohammed Zaki Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 1588297527 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 338
Book Description
This book covers elements of both the data-driven comparative modeling approach to structure prediction and also recent attempts to simulate folding using explicit or simplified models. Despite the unsolved mystery of how a protein folds, advances are being made in predicting the interactions of proteins with other molecules. Also rapidly advancing are the methods for solving the inverse folding problem, the problem of finding a sequence to fit a structure. This book focuses on the various computational methods for prediction, their successes and their limitations, from the perspective of their most well known practitioners.
Author: Amanda Guillán Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3319630431 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 336
Book Description
This monograph analyzes Nicholas Rescher’s system of pragmatic idealism. It also looks at his approach to prediction in science. Coverage highlights a prominent contribution to a central topic in the philosophy and methodology of science. The author offers a full characterization of Rescher’s system of philosophy. She presents readers with a comprehensive philosophico-methodological analysis of this important work. Her research takes into account different thematic realms: semantic, logical, epistemological, methodological, ontological, axiological, and ethical. The book features three, thematic-parts: I) General Coordinates, Semantic Features and Logical Components of Scientific Prediction; II) Predictive Knowledge and Predictive Processes in Rescher’s Methodological Pragmatism; and III) From Reality to Values: Ontological Features, Axiological Elements, and Ethical Aspects of Scientific Prediction. This insightful analysis offers a critical reconstruction of Rescher’s philosophy. The system he created is often characterized as pragmatic idealism that is open to some realist elements. He is a prominent representative of contemporary pragmatism who has made a great deal of contributions to the study of this topic. This area is crucial for science and it has been little considered in the philosophy of science.
Author: Sebastian Nowozin Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 026232296X Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 430
Book Description
An overview of recent work in the field of structured prediction, the building of predictive machine learning models for interrelated and dependent outputs. The goal of structured prediction is to build machine learning models that predict relational information that itself has structure, such as being composed of multiple interrelated parts. These models, which reflect prior knowledge, task-specific relations, and constraints, are used in fields including computer vision, speech recognition, natural language processing, and computational biology. They can carry out such tasks as predicting a natural language sentence, or segmenting an image into meaningful components. These models are expressive and powerful, but exact computation is often intractable. A broad research effort in recent years has aimed at designing structured prediction models and approximate inference and learning procedures that are computationally efficient. This volume offers an overview of this recent research in order to make the work accessible to a broader research community. The chapters, by leading researchers in the field, cover a range of topics, including research trends, the linear programming relaxation approach, innovations in probabilistic modeling, recent theoretical progress, and resource-aware learning. Contributors Jonas Behr, Yutian Chen, Fernando De La Torre, Justin Domke, Peter V. Gehler, Andrew E. Gelfand, Sébastien Giguère, Amir Globerson, Fred A. Hamprecht, Minh Hoai, Tommi Jaakkola, Jeremy Jancsary, Joseph Keshet, Marius Kloft, Vladimir Kolmogorov, Christoph H. Lampert, François Laviolette, Xinghua Lou, Mario Marchand, André F. T. Martins, Ofer Meshi, Sebastian Nowozin, George Papandreou, Daniel Průša, Gunnar Rätsch, Amélie Rolland, Bogdan Savchynskyy, Stefan Schmidt, Thomas Schoenemann, Gabriele Schweikert, Ben Taskar, Sinisa Todorovic, Max Welling, David Weiss, Thomáš Werner, Alan Yuille, Stanislav Živný
Author: Nicholas Rescher Publisher: SUNY Press ISBN: 9780791435533 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 334
Book Description
The future obviously matters to us. It is, after all, where we'll be spending the rest of our lives. We need some degree of foresight if we are to make effective plans for managing our affairs. Much that we would like to know in advance cannot be predicted. But a vast amount of successful prediction is nonetheless possible, especially in the context of applied sciences such as medicine, meteorology, and engineering. This book examines our prospects for finding out about the future in advance. It addresses questions such as why prediction is possible in some areas and not others; what sorts of methods and resources make successful prediction possible; and what obstacles limit the predictive venture. Nicholas Rescher develops a general theory of prediction that encompasses its fundamental principles, methodology, and practice and gives an overview of its promises and problems. Predicting the Future considers the anthropological and historical background of the predictive enterprise. It also examines the conceptual, epistemic, and ontological principles that set the stage for predictive efforts. In short, Rescher explores the basic features of the predictive situation and considers their broader implications in science, in philosophy, and in the management of our daily affairs.
Author: Stephen G. Brush Publisher: Oxford University Press ISBN: 0199978514 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 553
Book Description
Historically, the scientific method has been said to require proposing a theory, making a prediction of something not already known, testing the prediction, and giving up the theory (or substantially changing it) if it fails the test. A theory that leads to several successful predictions is more likely to be accepted than one that only explains what is already known but not understood. This process is widely treated as the conventional method of achieving scientific progress, and was used throughout the twentieth century as the standard route to discovery and experimentation. But does science really work this way? In Making 20th Century Science, Stephen G. Brush discusses this question, as it relates to the development of science throughout the last century. Answering this question requires both a philosophically and historically scientific approach, and Brush blends the two in order to take a close look at how scientific methodology has developed. Several cases from the history of modern physical and biological science are examined, including Mendeleev's Periodic Law, Kekule's structure for benzene, the light-quantum hypothesis, quantum mechanics, chromosome theory, and natural selection. In general it is found that theories are accepted for a combination of successful predictions and better explanations of old facts. Making 20th Century Science is a large-scale historical look at the implementation of the scientific method, and how scientific theories come to be accepted.
Author: Cira Perna Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 8847023424 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 402
Book Description
The book develops the capabilities arising from the cooperation between mathematicians and statisticians working in insurance and finance fields. It gathers some of the papers presented at the conference MAF2010, held in Ravello (Amalfi coast), and successively, after a reviewing process, worked out to this aim.
Author: Michael Thielscher Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3642351018 Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 935
Book Description
This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 25th Australasian Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, AI 2012, held in Sydney, Australia, in December 2012. The 76 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 196 submissions. The papers address a wide range of agents, applications, computer vision, constraints and search, game playing, information retrieval, knowledge representation, machine learning, planning and scheduling, robotics and uncertainty in AI.
Author: Brendan D. Kelly Publisher: Taylor & Francis ISBN: 1000984915 Category : Law Languages : en Pages : 756
Book Description
Mental health law is a rapidly evolving area of practice and research, with growing global dimensions. This work reflects the increasing importance of this field, critically discussing key issues of controversy and debate, and providing up-to-date analysis of cutting-edge developments in Africa, Asia, Europe, the Americas, and Australia. This is a timely moment for this book to appear. The United Nations’ Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities (2006) sought to transform the landscape in which mental health law is developed and implemented. This Convention, along with other developments, has, to varying degrees, informed sweeping legislative reforms in many countries around the world. These and other developments are discussed here. Contributors come from a wide range of countries and a variety of academic backgrounds including ethics, law, philosophy, psychiatry, and psychology. Some contributions are also informed by lived experience, whether in person or as family members. The result is a rich, polyphonic, and sometimes discordant account of what mental health law is and what it might be. The Handbook is aimed at mental health scholars and practitioners as well as students of law, human rights, disability studies, and psychiatry, and campaigners and law- and policy-makers.
Author: Bruce Bongar Publisher: Guilford Press ISBN: 9781572304987 Category : Psychology Languages : en Pages : 212
Book Description
How does the law define "reasonable care" in the treatment of suicidal patients? What are the most clinically and legally appropriate procedures for evaluating and managing suicide risks? And what forms of precautionary planning and documentation are recommended for minimizing the likelihood of malpractice actions? Drawing upon years of clinical experience as well as extensive malpractice claims data and relevant case law, this book outlines effective assessment, management, and treatment procedures that balance the need for high-quality care with the requirements of court-determined and statutory standards. Three widely cited papers on standards of care are accompanied by four new chapters on clinical and legal risk management and issues surrounding pharmacotherapy. Offering frank, balanced coverage of an extremely challenging clinical situation, Risk Management with Suicidal Patients helps psychologists, psychiatrists, and other practitioners develop their own clinically and legally informed strategies for providing the best possible care. It is also an invaluable resource for legal professionals, and may serve as a text in psychology and psychiatry ethics courses and courses on mental health law.
Author: Mark P. Kritzman
Author: Mark P. Kritzman
Author: Mohammed Zaki
Author: Amanda Guillán
Author: Sebastian Nowozin
Author: Nicholas Rescher
Author: Stephen G. Brush
Author: Cira Perna
Author: Michael Thielscher
Author: Brendan D. Kelly
Author: Bruce Bongar