Prediction Markets PDF Download

Author: Stefan Luckner
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3834970859
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 152

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Book Description
Accurate predictions are essential in many areas such as corporate decision making, weather forecasting and technology forecasting. Prediction markets help to aggregate information and gain a better understanding of the future by leveraging the wisdom of the crowds. Trading prices in prediction markets thus reflect the traders’ aggregated expectations on the outcome of uncertain future events and can be used to predict the likelihood of these events. This book demonstrates that markets are accurate predictors. Results from several empirical studies reported in this work show the importance of designing such markets properly in order to derive valuable predictions. Therefore, the findings are valuable for designing future prediction markets.

Author: Leighton Vaughan Williams
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 113671569X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 289

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Book Description
How does one effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the ‘wisdom of the crowd’? Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies, for example, in providing improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services. The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza to the spread of infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like opinion surveys, group deliberations, panels of experts and focus groups. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes. This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should be of interest to anyone looking at monetary economics, economic forecasting and microeconomics.

Author: Edward Yardeni
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781948025003
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Book Description
I started my career on Wall Street in 1978. For the past 40 years on the Street, I have been thinking and writing about the economy and financial markets as both an economist and an investment strategist. While I have a solid academic background to be a Wall Street prognosticator, I learned a great deal on the job. In this book, I share my professional insights into predicting the economy and financial markets.

Author: Michael Abramowicz
Publisher: Yale University Press
ISBN: 0300144954
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 364

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Book Description
Predicting the future is serious business for virtually all public and private institutions, for they must often make important decisions based upon such predictions. This text explores how institutions might improve their predictions and arrive at better decisions by means of prediction markets.

Author: Donald N. Thompson
Publisher: Harvard Business Press
ISBN: 142218319X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 274

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Book Description
Why Prediction Markets Are Good for Business From selecting the lead actress in a Broadway musical, to predicting a crucial delay in the delivery of Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner months before the CEO knew about it, to accurately forecasting US presidential elections—prediction markets have realized some amazing successes by aggregating the wisdom of crowds. Until now, the potential for this unique approach has remained merely an interesting curiosity. But a handful of innovative organizations—GE, Google, Motorola, Microsoft, Eli Lily, even the CIA—has successfully tapped employee insights to change how business gets done. In Oracles, Don Thompson explains how these and other firms use prediction markets to make better decisions, describing what could be the origins of a social revolution. Thompson shows how prediction markets can: • draw on the hidden knowledge of every employee • tap the “intellectual bandwidth” of retired employees • replace surveys • substitute for endless meetings By showing successes and failures of real organizations, and identifying the common roadblocks they’ve overcome, Oracles offers a guide to begin testing expertise against the collective wisdom of employees and the market—all to the benefit of their bottom line.

Author: Michael McDonald
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0471271578
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 218

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Book Description
A fresh perspective on predicting the market The experience of Wall Street investment manager and analyst Michael McDonald offers a new perspective on how to navigate the turbulent ups and downs of the markets. His innovative approach to the stock market teaches investors how to use new investment strategies intended to replace the "buy and hold forever" strategies of yesterday. McDonald discusses what a "trading range" market is-a roller-coaster ride in which the market will neither gain nor lose much ground-and guides readers through this market with his proven investment strategies. This book provides an understandable way to make sense of the unpredictable stock market, taking into account more complex theories, including chaos and contrarian approaches. Along with his expert advice, McDonald presents four investing paradoxes that will help investors make smarter decisions now and predict where the market is heading, using his proven theories.

Author: James P. O'Shaughnessy
Publisher: Penguin
ISBN: 110121838X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 328

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Book Description
A unique and timely new wealth-building strategy from a legendary investment guru In his national bestsellers How to Retire Rich and What Works on Wall Street, portfolio manager extraordinaire James P. O’Shaughnessy offered investors practical advice based on rigorous quantitative analysis—advice that has consistently beaten the market. But in a recent analysis of market data, O’Shaughnessy uncovered some astonishing trends not discussed in his previous books. The Markets of Tomorrow explains O’Shaughnessy’s new research and tells ordinary investors what they must do now to revamp their portfolios. According to O’Shaughnessy, the year 2000 marked the end of a twenty-year cycle that was dominated by the stocks of larger, fastergrowing companies like those in the S&P 500. In the new cycle, the stocks of small and midsize companies are the ones that will outperform the market, along with large company value stocks and intermediate term bonds. O’Shaughnessy describes the number crunching behind his analysis and then shows individual investors exactly how to select the right mix of investments and pick top-performing small and midcap stocks. The Markets of Tomorrow is a loud and clear call to action for every investor who doesn’t want to be left behind.

Author: Graham Elliott
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400880890
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 567

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Book Description
A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike

Author: Robert Passikoff
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 0470088796
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 256

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Book Description
Praise for Predicting Market Success "Predicting Market Success has come at the right time for major companies. The value of understanding the dimensions of your brand's unique appeal and strength of preference is indispensable for brand strategy today. This book is well worth your time." —Joseph T. Plummer, Chief Research OfficerThe Advertising Research Foundation "In the competitive world of branding, understanding what drives consumer loyalty is the cornerstone of a brand's continued success. Passikoff's market-driven insights on how to obtain, analyze, and utilize loyalty metrics will help you make strategic, brand-enhancing decisions." —Seth M. Siegel, Cochairman, The Beanstalk Group "Passikoff is the guy who can explain to me why people buy certain things from certain companies, even though other things by other companies seem just as good. With his great feel for pop culture and almost philosophical outlook, he understands what makes consumers tick-and stick." —Lenore Skenazy, syndicated columnist "Loyalty is a key component of the strength of a brand and brand equity, and Passikoff understands loyalty like few others. In this book, he captures the essence of loyalty and branding in a practical way-showing how loyalty drives profitability." —Erich Joachimsthaler, Chairman, Vivaldi Partners "If you want a business book that will make you feel justified, complimented, and comfortable, don't read this. If you want a book to challenge your beliefs about brand marketing right down to the core, you can't afford not to." —John Gaffney, Executive Editor, Peppers & Rogers Group

Author: Louis B. Mendelsohn
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 111853865X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 171

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Book Description
In this groundbreaking new edition, Mendelsohn gives you the weapon to conquer the limitations of traditional technical trading-intermarket analysis. To compete in today's rapidly changing economy, you need a method that can identify reoccurring patterns within individual financial markets and between related global markets. You need tools that lead, not lag. Step by step, Mendelsohn shows how combining technical, fundamental, and intermarket analysis into one powerful framework can give you an early edge to accurately forecasting trends. Inside, you'll discover: Precise trading strategies that can be used by both day traders and position traders. The limitations of traditional technical analysis methods-and how to overcome them. How neural network computational modeling can create leading, not lagging, moving averages for more accurate forecasting. Innovative, quantitative trend forecasting indicators at the cutting edge of market analysis. PLUS-an introduction to VantagePoint Software, which makes Mendelsohn's "new economy" trading methods work simply-and effectively. This software applies the pattern recognition capabilities of advanced neural networks to analyze intermarket data on literally hundreds of global financial markets each day.