Risk and Decision Making PDF Download

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Decision making
Languages : en
Pages : 80

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Author: Mendoza, Guillermo
Publisher: UNESCO Publishing
ISBN: 9231002872
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 157

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Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309089565
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 264

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Book Description
Understanding Risk addresses a central dilemma of risk decisionmaking in a democracy: detailed scientific and technical information is essential for making decisions, but the people who make and live with those decisions are not scientists. The key task of risk characterization is to provide needed and appropriate information to decisionmakers and the public. This important new volume illustrates that making risks understandable to the public involves much more than translating scientific knowledge. The volume also draws conclusions about what society should expect from risk characterization and offers clear guidelines and principles for informing the wide variety of risk decisions that face our increasingly technological society. Frames fundamental questions about what risk characterization means. Reviews traditional definitions and explores new conceptual and practical approaches. Explores how risk characterization should inform decisionmakers and the public. Looks at risk characterization in the context of the entire decisionmaking process. Understanding Risk discusses how risk characterization has fallen short in many recent controversial decisions. Throughout the text, examples and case studiesâ€"such as planning for the long-term ecological health of the Everglades or deciding on the operation of a waste incineratorâ€"bring key concepts to life. Understanding Risk will be important to anyone involved in risk issues: federal, state, and local policymakers and regulators; risk managers; scientists; industrialists; researchers; and concerned individuals.

Author: Enrico Zio
Publisher: FonCSI
ISBN:
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 61

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Book Description
The authors introduce the general concepts, definitions and issues related to the use of Risk-informed decision-making (RIDM). These are structured processes which assist decision-makers when faced with high impact, complex decisions involving multiple objectives and the presence of uncertainty. They aim to ensure that decisions between competing alternatives are taken with an awareness of the risks associated with each option, and that all attributes of a decision are considered in an integrated manner. Motivations for the use of these techniques as a complement to more traditional deterministic approaches to risk assessment are provided. The RIDM processes adopted by NASA and by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission are described in detail, with an analysis of commonalities and differences in approach.

Author: Franco Oboni
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3030194477
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 285

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Book Description
This book presents a comprehensive approach to address the need to improve the design of tailings dams, their management and the regulation of tailings management facilities to reduce, and eventually eliminate, the risk of such facilities failing. The scope of the challenge is well documented in the report by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and GRID Arendal entitled “Mine Tailings Storage: Safety Is No Accident,” which was released in October 2017. The report recommends that “Regulators, industry and communities should adopt a shared, zero-failure objective to tailings storage facilities...” and identifies several areas where further improvements are required. In this context, the application of cutting-edge risk-assessment methodologies and risk-management practices can contribute to a significant reduction and eventual elimination of dam failures through Risk Informed Decision Making. As such, the book focuses on identifying and describing the risk-assessment approaches and risk-management practices that need to be implemented in order to develop a way forward to achieve socially acceptable levels of tailings dam risk.

Author: Marvin Rausand
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119377234
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 784

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Book Description
Introduces risk assessment with key theories, proven methods, and state-of-the-art applications Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications remains one of the few textbooks to address current risk analysis and risk assessment with an emphasis on the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice—from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. Updated to align with ISO 31000 and other amended standards, this all-new 2nd Edition discusses the main ideas and techniques for assessing risk today. The book begins with an introduction of risk analysis, assessment, and management, and includes a new section on the history of risk analysis. It covers hazards and threats, how to measure and evaluate risk, and risk management. It also adds new sections on risk governance and risk-informed decision making; combining accident theories and criteria for evaluating data sources; and subjective probabilities. The risk assessment process is covered, as are how to establish context; planning and preparing; and identification, analysis, and evaluation of risk. Risk Assessment also offers new coverage of safe job analysis and semi-quantitative methods, and it discusses barrier management and HRA methods for offshore application. Finally, it looks at dynamic risk analysis, security and life-cycle use of risk. Serves as a practical and modern guide to the current applications of risk analysis and assessment, supports key standards, and supplements legislation related to risk analysis Updated and revised to align with ISO 31000 Risk Management and other new standards and includes new chapters on security, dynamic risk analysis, as well as life-cycle use of risk analysis Provides in-depth coverage on hazard identification, methodologically outlining the steps for use of checklists, conducting preliminary hazard analysis, and job safety analysis Presents new coverage on the history of risk analysis, criteria for evaluating data sources, risk-informed decision making, subjective probabilities, semi-quantitative methods, and barrier management Contains more applications and examples, new and revised problems throughout, and detailed appendices that outline key terms and acronyms Supplemented with a book companion website containing Solutions to problems, presentation material and an Instructor Manual Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications, Second Edition is ideal for courses on risk analysis/risk assessment and systems engineering at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an excellent reference and resource for engineers, researchers, consultants, and practitioners who carry out risk assessment techniques in their everyday work.

Author: Curtis Smith
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0323998186
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 388

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Book Description
Risk-informed Methods and Applications in Nuclear and Energy Engineering: Modelling, Experimentation, and Validation presents a comprehensive view of the latest technical approaches and experimental capabilities in nuclear energy engineering. Based on Idaho National Laboratory's popular summer school series, this book compiles a collection of entries on the cutting-edge research and knowledge presented by proponents and developers of current and future nuclear systems, focusing on the connection between modelling and experimental approaches. Included in this book are key topics such as probabilistic concepts for risk analysis, the survey of legacy reliability and risk analysis tools, and newly developed tools supporting dynamic probabilistic risk-assessment. This book is an insightful and inspiring compilation of work from top nuclear experts from INL. Industry professionals, researchers and academics working in nuclear engineering, safety, operations and training will gain a board picture of the current state-of-practice and be able to apply that to their own risk-assessment studies. - Based on Idaho National Laboratory's summer school series, this book is a collection of entries from proponents and developers of current and future nuclear systems - Provides an up-to-date view of current technical approaches and experimental capabilities in nuclear energy engineering, covering modeling and validation, and focusing on risk-informed methods and applications - Equips the reader with an understanding of various case studies and experimental validations to enable them to carry out a risk-assessment study

Author: Victor E. Saouma
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030574342
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 1153

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Book Description
This self-contained book focuses on the safety assessment of existing structures subjected to multi-hazard scenarios through advanced numerical methods. Whereas the focus is on concrete dams and nuclear containment structures, the presented methodologies can also be applied to other large-scale ones. The authors explains how aging and shaking ultimately lead to cracking, and how these complexities are compounded by their random nature. Nonlinear (static and transient) finite element analysis is hence integrated with both earthquake engineering and probabilistic methods to ultimately derive capacity or fragility curves through a rigorous safety assessment. Expanding its focus beyond design aspects or the state of the practice (i.e., codes), this book is composed of seven sections: Fundamentals: theoretical coverage of solid mechnics, plasticity, fracture mechanics, creep, seismology, dynamic analysis, probability and statistics Damage: that can affect concrete structures, such as cracking of concrete, AAR, chloride ingress, and rebar corrosion, Finite Element: formulation for both linear and nonlinear analysis including stress, heat and fracture mechanics, Engineering Models: for soil/fluid-structure interaction, uncertainty quantification, probablilistic and random finite element analysis, machine learning, performance based earthquake engineering, ground motion intensity measures, seismic hazard analysis, capacity/fragility functions and damage indeces, Applications to dams through potential failure mode analyses, risk-informed decision making, deterministic and probabilistic examples, Applications to nuclear structures through modeling issues, aging management programs, critical review of some analyses, Other applications and case studies: massive RC structures and bridges, detailed assessment of a nuclear containment structure evaluation for license renewal. This book should inspire students, professionals and most importantly regulators to rigorously apply the most up to date scientific methods in the safety assessment of large concrete structures.

Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309120462
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 422

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Book Description
Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well as other federal agencies in evaluating public health concerns, informing regulatory and technological decisions, prioritizing research needs and funding, and in developing approaches for cost-benefit analysis. However, risk assessment is at a crossroads. Despite advances in the field, risk assessment faces a number of significant challenges including lengthy delays in making complex decisions; lack of data leading to significant uncertainty in risk assessments; and many chemicals in the marketplace that have not been evaluated and emerging agents requiring assessment. Science and Decisions makes practical scientific and technical recommendations to address these challenges. This book is a complement to the widely used 1983 National Academies book, Risk Assessment in the Federal Government (also known as the Red Book). The earlier book established a framework for the concepts and conduct of risk assessment that has been adopted by numerous expert committees, regulatory agencies, and public health institutions. The new book embeds these concepts within a broader framework for risk-based decision-making. Together, these are essential references for those working in the regulatory and public health fields.

Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309033497
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 206

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Book Description
The regulation of potentially hazardous substances has become a controversial issue. This volume evaluates past efforts to develop and use risk assessment guidelines, reviews the experience of regulatory agencies with different administrative arrangements for risk assessment, and evaluates various proposals to modify procedures. The book's conclusions and recommendations can be applied across the entire field of environmental health.