Author: Philip Hans FransesPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Altruism
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
On the Optimality of Expert-adjusted Forecast
Author: Philip Hans FransesPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Altruism
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
On the Optimality of Expert-adjusted Forecasts
Author: Philip Hans FransesPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 32
Book Description
Expert Adjustments of Model Forecasts
Author: Philip Hans FransesPublisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107081599
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 145
Book Description
Brings together current theoretical insights and new empirical results to examine expert adjustment of model forecasts from an econometric perspective.
Judgment in Predictive Analytics
Author: Matthias SeifertPublisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3031300858
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 321
Book Description
This book highlights research on the behavioral biases affecting judgmental accuracy in judgmental forecasting and showcases the state-of-the-art in judgment-based predictive analytics. In recent years, technological advancements have made it possible to use predictive analytics to exploit highly complex (big) data resources. Consequently, modern forecasting methodologies are based on sophisticated algorithms from the domain of machine learning and deep learning. However, research shows that in the majority of industry contexts, human judgment remains an indispensable component of the managerial forecasting process. This book discusses ways in which decision-makers can address human behavioral issues in judgmental forecasting. The book begins by introducing readers to the notion of human-machine interactions. This includes a look at the necessity of managerial judgment in situations where organizations commonly have algorithmic decision support models at their disposal. The remainder of the book is divided into three parts, with Part I focusing on the role of individual-level judgment in the design and utilization of algorithmic models. The respective chapters cover individual-level biases such as algorithm aversion, model selection criteria, model-judgment aggregation issues and implications for behavioral change. In turn, Part II addresses the role of collective judgments in predictive analytics. The chapters focus on issues related to talent spotting, performance-weighted aggregation, and the wisdom of timely crowds. Part III concludes the book by shedding light on the importance of contextual factors as critical determinants of forecasting performance. Its chapters discuss the usefulness of scenario analysis, the role of external factors in time series forecasting and introduce the idea of mindful organizing as an approach to creating more sustainable forecasting practices in organizations.
Science Outside the Laboratory
Author: Marcel BoumansPublisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 0199388288
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 213
Book Description
Social science experiments often cannot be analyzed under controlled conditions, as many take place outside a laboratory. None-the-less, measurement provides scientists with a sound basis for collecting and analyzing the results of field research. Science Outside the Laboratory examines the relationship between measurement theory and field investigations through the philosophy of science.
Ethics in Econometrics
Author: Philip Hans FransesPublisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1009428047
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 309
Book Description
Econometricians make choices on data, models, and estimation routines. Using various examples, this book shows the consequences of choices.
The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting
Author: Michael P. ClementsPublisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199875510
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 732
Book Description
This Handbook provides up-to-date coverage of both new and well-established fields in the sphere of economic forecasting. The chapters are written by world experts in their respective fields, and provide authoritative yet accessible accounts of the key concepts, subject matter, and techniques in a number of diverse but related areas. It covers the ways in which the availability of ever more plentiful data and computational power have been used in forecasting, in terms of the frequency of observations, the number of variables, and the use of multiple data vintages. Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic analysis to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained; the volume provides explanations and critiques of these developments. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models, as well as models for handling data observed at mixed frequencies, high-frequency data, multiple data vintages, methods for forecasting when there are structural breaks, and how breaks might be forecast. Also covered are areas which are less commonly associated with economic forecasting, such as climate change, health economics, long-horizon growth forecasting, and political elections. Econometric forecasting has important contributions to make in these areas along with how their developments inform the mainstream.
Industrial Engineering: Innovative Networks
Author: Suresh P. SethiPublisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1447123212
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 387
Book Description
The Spanish Conference of Industrial Engineering /Ingeniería de Organización Industrial (CIO) is an annual meeting promoted by Asociación para el Desarrollo de la Ingeniería de Organización/ Industrial Engineers Association (ADINGOR). The aim of CIO is to establish a forum for the open and free exchange of ideas, opinions and academic experiences about research, technology transfer or successful business experiences in the field of Industrial Engineering. The Scientific Committee is composed by 68 international referees and we foresee the attendance of some 200 people from more than 15 countries and following the rotation of venue and organization between various Spanish universities, the 2011 Conference will be the fifteenth National Conference and the fifth International Conference in Cartagena. During three days the 2011 Conference will include the participation of European and other foreign countries researchers and practitioners that will presenting communications, reproduced in this volume, on a range of topics including: Production and Operations Business Management Supply Chain Management Economic environment Technological and Organizational Innovation and Management and Innovation in Education The Conference on Industrial Engineering (CIO) and its proceedings are an excellent platform for the dissemination of the outputs of the scientific projects developed in the frame of the European, national or regional Research and Development plans.
Experts and Consensus in Social Science
Author: Carlo MartiniPublisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319085514
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 309
Book Description
This book brings together the research of philosophers, sociologists, and social scientists. It examines those areas of scientific practice where reliance on the subjective judgment of experts and practitioners is the main source of useful knowledge to address and possibly, bring solutions to social problems. A common phenomenon in applications of science is that objective evidence does not point to a single answer or solution, to a problem. Reliance on subjective judgment, then, becomes necessary, despite the known fact that hunches, even those of putative experts, often provide information that is not very accurate, and that experts are prone to fallacies and biases. The book looks at how experts reach consensus in the social sciences, and which experts are relevant to which problems. It aims to answer many questions, the main one being: Can we start building a normative theory of expertise on the basis of the evidence that social scientists, sociologists and philosophers have uncovered?
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