North pacific climate and ecosystem predictability on seasonal to decadal timescales PDF Download

Author: Shoshiro Minobe
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
ISBN: 2832505708
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 194

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Author: Fabian Lienert
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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The first part of this thesis is an assessment of the ability of global climate models to reproduce observed features of the leading Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) mode of North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies known as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The simulations from 13 global climate models I am analyzing were performed under phase 3 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP3). In particular, I am investigating whether these climate models capture tropical influences on the PDO, and the influences of the PDO on North American surface temperature and precipitation. My results are that 1) the models as group produce a realistic pattern of the PDO. The simulated variance of the PDO index is overestimated by roughly 30%. 2)The tropical influence on North Pacific SSTs is biased systematically in these models. The simulated response to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing is delayed compared to the observed response. This tendency is consistent with model biases toward deeper oceanic mixed layers in winter and spring and weaker air-sea feedbacks in the winter half-year. Model biases in mixed layer depths and air-sea feedbacks are also associated with a model mean ENSO-related signal in the North Pacific whose amplitude is overestimated by roughly 30%. Finally, model power spectra of the PDO signal and its ENSO-forced component are?redder? than observed due to errors originating in the tropics and extratropics. 3) The models are quite successful at capturing the influence of both the tropical Pacific related and the extratropical part of the PDO on North American surface temperature. 4) The models capture some of the influence of the PDO on North American precipitation mainly due to its tropical Pacific related part. In the second part of this thesis, I investigate the ability of one such coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model, carefully initialized with observations, to dynamically predict the future evolution of the PDO on seasonal to decadal time scales. I am using forecasts produced by the Canadian climate data assimilation and prediction system employing the Canadian climate model CanCM3 for seasonal (CHFP2) and CanCM4 for decadal (DHFP1) predictions. The skill of this system in predicting the future evolution of the PDO index is then inferred from a set of historical?forecasts? called hindcasts. In this manner, hindcasts are issued over the past 30 years (seasonal), or over the past 50 years (decadal) when they can be verified against the observed historical evolution of the PDO index. I find that 1) CHFP2 is successful at predicting the PDO at the seasonal timescale measured by mean-square skill score and correlation skill. Weather?noise? unpredictable at the seasonal time scale generated by substantial North Pacific stormtrack activity that coincides with a shallow oceanic mixed layer in May and June appear to pose a prediction barrier for the PDO. PDO skill therefore depends on the start season of the forecast. PDO skill also varies as a function of the target month. Variations in North Pacific storminess appear to impact PDO skill by means of a lagged response of the ocean mixed layer to weather noise. In CHFP2, times of increasing North Pacific storm track activity are followed by times of reduced PDO skill, while the North Pacific midwinter suppression of storm track ...

Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309060982
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 161

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Society today may be more vulnerable to global-scale, long-term, climate change than ever before. Even without any human influence, past records show that climate can be expected to continue to undergo considerable change over decades to centuries. Measures for adaption and mitigation will call for policy decisions based on a sound scientific foundation. Better understanding and prediction of climate variations can be achieved most efficiently through a nationally recognized "dec-cen" science plan. This book articulates the scientific issues that must be addressed to advance us efficiently toward that understanding and outlines the data collection and modeling needed.

Author: Mark R. Payne
Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
ISBN: 2889458814
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 136

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Tremendous advances in oceanographic observing and modeling systems over the last decade have led to unprecedented developments in the nature of information available to marine science. While improvements in observational technologies and networks have garnered much attention, remarkable developments in forecasting the ocean have received much less focus. Exploiting this new predictive skill to improve scientific understanding, generate advice and aid in the management of marine resources, is emerging as one of the new challenges of marine science. Translating predictions of the physical environment into biological outcomes, however, is not straightforward. Fisheries scientists, for example, have been trying to understand the links between physics and biology, and generate predictions of variables such as recruitment, for close to a century, with limited success. Nevertheless, spatial distributions and the timing of key events, which have received less focus, are often tightly linked to the physical environment and may have management-relevant applications. The first-such forecasts based on this skill are now starting to emerge. This Frontiers in Marine Science Research Topic provides a snapshot of the state-of-the-art in Marine Ecological Prediction. It covers the opportunities for developing such forecasts, technical approaches that could be employed, and examples where the technology is already being applied. This body of work therefore marks an important milestone on the route to developing this new and exciting field of marine science.

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309467578
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 717

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We live on a dynamic Earth shaped by both natural processes and the impacts of humans on their environment. It is in our collective interest to observe and understand our planet, and to predict future behavior to the extent possible, in order to effectively manage resources, successfully respond to threats from natural and human-induced environmental change, and capitalize on the opportunities â€" social, economic, security, and more â€" that such knowledge can bring. By continuously monitoring and exploring Earth, developing a deep understanding of its evolving behavior, and characterizing the processes that shape and reshape the environment in which we live, we not only advance knowledge and basic discovery about our planet, but we further develop the foundation upon which benefits to society are built. Thriving on Our Changing Planet presents prioritized science, applications, and observations, along with related strategic and programmatic guidance, to support the U.S. civil space Earth observation program over the coming decade.

Author: Mojib Latif
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Climatic changes
Languages : en
Pages : 65

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Author: Douglas V. Hoyt
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN: 0195094131
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 288

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"A successful blend of astronomical and climate studies with modern scientific and statistical analysis, this history of solar observations is followed by a review of how variations in solar brightness have been measured, both from the ground and space." --New Scientist

Author: Vera Alexander
Publisher: Sidney, B.C. : North Pacific Marine Science Organization
ISBN:
Category : Biodiversity
Languages : en
Pages : 220

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Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309174325
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 621

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How can we understand and rise to the environmental challenges of global change? One clear answer is to understand the science of global change, not solely in terms of the processes that control changes in climate and the composition of the atmosphere, but in how ecosystems and human society interact with these changes. In the last two decades of the twentieth century, a number of such research effortsâ€"supported by computer and satellite technologyâ€"have been launched. Yet many opportunities for integration remain unexploited, and many fundamental questions remain about the earth's capacity to support a growing human population. This volume encourages a renewed commitment to understanding global change and sets a direction for research in the decade ahead. Through case studies the book explores what can be learned from the lessons of the past 20 years and what are the outstanding scientific questions. Highlights include: Research imperatives and strategies for investigators in the areas of atmospheric chemistry, climate, ecosystem studies, and human dimensions of global change. The context of climate change, including lessons to be gleaned from paleoclimatology. Human responses toâ€"and forcing ofâ€"projected global change. This book offers a comprehensive overview of global change research to date and provides a framework for answering urgent questions.

Author: Michael J. McPhaden
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119548128
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 528

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Comprehensive and up-to-date information on Earth’s most dominant year-to-year climate variation The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean has major worldwide social and economic consequences through its global scale effects on atmospheric and oceanic circulation, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and other natural systems. Ongoing climate change is projected to significantly alter ENSO's dynamics and impacts. El Niño Southern Oscillation in a Changing Climate presents the latest theories, models, and observations, and explores the challenges of forecasting ENSO as the climate continues to change. Volume highlights include: Historical background on ENSO and its societal consequences Review of key El Niño (ENSO warm phase) and La Niña (ENSO cold phase) characteristics Mathematical description of the underlying physical processes that generate ENSO variations Conceptual framework for understanding ENSO changes on decadal and longer time scales, including the response to greenhouse gas forcing ENSO impacts on extreme ocean, weather, and climate events, including tropical cyclones, and how ENSO affects fisheries and the global carbon cycle Advances in modeling, paleo-reconstructions, and operational climate forecasting Future projections of ENSO and its impacts Factors influencing ENSO events, such as inter-basin climate interactions and volcanic eruptions The American Geophysical Union promotes discovery in Earth and space science for the benefit of humanity. Its publications disseminate scientific knowledge and provide resources for researchers, students, and professionals. Find out more about this book from this Q&A with the editors.