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Author: H. Paul Shuch Publisher: ISBN: Category : Aircraft accidents Languages : en Pages : 234
Book Description
"Conventional wisdom suggests aircraft midair collisions to be random events, governed by the laws of Brownian Motion, and best analyzed by stochastic methods. An alternative hypothesis, that such accidents are deterministic in nature, and that specific factors leading to midair collisions can be identified and mitigated, forms the basis for this Dissertation. A predictive model using case control theory is developed for assessing Risk Index, a criterion measure of midair collision likelihood, for any General Aviation flight, actual or hypothetical. Generating the model requires statistical validation of two independent near midair collision databases, and identifying within them those aircraft, aircrew and airspace characteristics most closely associated with collision risk. Calibration of the model shows reality to fall somewhere between the stochastic and deterministic assumptions. A statistically significant correlation is found between predicted and observed Risk Index for a sizable random sample of flights, with a resulting Coefficient of Determination of 0.25. This suggests that we have identified 25% of the source of variance in midair collision risk, the remaining 75% being random. Therefore we can realistically hope to reduce midair collisions by roughly 25%. Strategies for mitigating the identified causal factors are proposed. Measures to reduce the random, remaining 75% of collision risk are also explored. However, these appear to require a significant overhaul of Air Traffic Control procedures, which must be approached with caution, to guard against the attendant possibility of curtailing capacity in the Air Transportation System."--Page 1-2
Author: H. Paul Shuch Publisher: ISBN: Category : Aircraft accidents Languages : en Pages : 234
Book Description
"Conventional wisdom suggests aircraft midair collisions to be random events, governed by the laws of Brownian Motion, and best analyzed by stochastic methods. An alternative hypothesis, that such accidents are deterministic in nature, and that specific factors leading to midair collisions can be identified and mitigated, forms the basis for this Dissertation. A predictive model using case control theory is developed for assessing Risk Index, a criterion measure of midair collision likelihood, for any General Aviation flight, actual or hypothetical. Generating the model requires statistical validation of two independent near midair collision databases, and identifying within them those aircraft, aircrew and airspace characteristics most closely associated with collision risk. Calibration of the model shows reality to fall somewhere between the stochastic and deterministic assumptions. A statistically significant correlation is found between predicted and observed Risk Index for a sizable random sample of flights, with a resulting Coefficient of Determination of 0.25. This suggests that we have identified 25% of the source of variance in midair collision risk, the remaining 75% being random. Therefore we can realistically hope to reduce midair collisions by roughly 25%. Strategies for mitigating the identified causal factors are proposed. Measures to reduce the random, remaining 75% of collision risk are also explored. However, these appear to require a significant overhaul of Air Traffic Control procedures, which must be approached with caution, to guard against the attendant possibility of curtailing capacity in the Air Transportation System."--Page 1-2
Author: United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Commerce. Aviation Subcommittee Publisher: ISBN: Category : Aeronautical instruments Languages : en Pages : 280
Author: Clinton V. Oster Publisher: New York : Oxford University Press ISBN: 0195072235 Category : Aeronautics Languages : en Pages : 217
Book Description
With the deregulation of commercial airlines in 1978, the United States airline industry has changed dramatically. Route entry and exit flexibility, as well as fare setting have stimulated competition, forcing airlines to emphasize cost control, increased productivity, and effective marketing. How have these changes in both public and private policies influenced airline safety? Do airplanes have more accidents now than ever before? This work examines the causes of airplane accidents and what private and public policies are needed to improve aviation safety. It begins by examining the safety record of the United States commuter airline industry in the post-deregulation era characterized by increased emphasis by airlines on cost control and growing pressures on the air traffic control and airport system. The authors go beyond the safety of the scheduled airlines to examine the reasons for accidents in the nonscheduled and general aviation segments of the United States industry, where the bulk of fatalities occur and where airline pilots increasingly receive most of their training and experience. They then turn to an examination of aviation safety throughout the world, first with a detailed comparison of Canadian and American aviation safety, and then with a look at air safety in all regions of the world and the safety performances of all the world's major airlines. Three emerging issues are then examined in greater detail: assessing the margin of safety, worldwide aging of all airline fleets, and terrorism. Clearly written, this careful and systematic analysis of well over 15,000 individual aviation accidents will provide greater insight for government officials, aviation industrymanagers, and researchers, as well as laypeople and other frequent flyers.
Author: United States. Congress. House. Committee on Public Works and Transportation. Subcommittee on Aviation Publisher: ISBN: Category : Aeronautics Languages : en Pages : 188
Author: H. Paul Shuch
Author: H. Paul Shuch
Author: H. Paul Shuch
Author: 
Author: United States. Congress. Senate. Committee on Commerce. Aviation Subcommittee
Author: United States. Congress. Senate. Commerce
Author: 
Author: Clinton V. Oster
Author: United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee
Author: United States. Congress. House. Committee on Public Works and Transportation. Subcommittee on Aviation
Author: