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Author: Dongyeol Lee Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484356381 Category : Nature Languages : en Pages : 37
Book Description
Pacific island countries are highly vulnerable to various natural disasters which are destructive, unpredictable and occur frequently. The frequency and scale of these shocks heightens the importance of medium-term economic and fiscal planning to minimize the adverse impact of disasters on economic development. This paper identifies the intensity of natural disasters for each country in the Pacific based on the distribution of damage and population affected by disasters, and estimates the impact of disasters on economic growth and international trade using a panel regression. The results show that “severe” disasters have a significant and negative impact on economic growth and lead to a deterioration of the fiscal and trade balance. We also find that the negative impact on growth is stronger for more intense disasters. Going further this paper proposes a simple and consistent method to adjust IMF staff’s economic projections and debt sustainability analysis for disaster shocks for the Pacific islands. Better incorporating the economic impact of natural disasters in the medium- and long-term economic planning would help policy makers improve fiscal policy decisions and to be better adapted and prepared for natural disasters.
Author: Dongyeol Lee Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484356381 Category : Nature Languages : en Pages : 37
Book Description
Pacific island countries are highly vulnerable to various natural disasters which are destructive, unpredictable and occur frequently. The frequency and scale of these shocks heightens the importance of medium-term economic and fiscal planning to minimize the adverse impact of disasters on economic development. This paper identifies the intensity of natural disasters for each country in the Pacific based on the distribution of damage and population affected by disasters, and estimates the impact of disasters on economic growth and international trade using a panel regression. The results show that “severe” disasters have a significant and negative impact on economic growth and lead to a deterioration of the fiscal and trade balance. We also find that the negative impact on growth is stronger for more intense disasters. Going further this paper proposes a simple and consistent method to adjust IMF staff’s economic projections and debt sustainability analysis for disaster shocks for the Pacific islands. Better incorporating the economic impact of natural disasters in the medium- and long-term economic planning would help policy makers improve fiscal policy decisions and to be better adapted and prepared for natural disasters.
Author: Ezequiel Cabezon Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513525794 Category : Nature Languages : en Pages : 37
Book Description
Natural disasters and climate change are interrelated macro-critical issues affecting all Pacific small states to varying degrees. In addition to their devastating human costs, these events damage growth prospects and worsen countries’ fiscal positions. This is the first cross-country IMF study assessing the impact of natural disasters on growth in the Pacific islands as a group. A panel VAR analysis suggests that, for damage and losses equivalent to 1 percent of GDP, growth drops by 0.7 percentage point in the year of the disaster. We also find that, during 1980-2014, trend growth was 0.7 percentage point lower than it would have been without natural disasters. The paper also discusses a multi-pillar framework to enhance resilience to natural disasters at the national, regional, and multilateral levels and the importance of enhancing countries’ risk-management capacities. It highlights how this approach can provide a more strategic and less ad hoc framework for strengthening both ex ante and ex post resilience and what role the IMF can play.
Author: Asian Development Bank Publisher: ISBN: 9789292611187 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 28
Book Description
Pacific island countries need to build their fiscal and economic resilience to climate change and natural disasters as these have lasting consequences on their livelihoods, economies, and fiscal balances. Climate change and natural disasters can have lasting consequences on livelihoods, economies, and fiscal balances-spanning immediate reconstruction costs and fiscal shocks to long-term halts in tourism and agriculture economies. Globally, the most exposed to these impacts are the Pacific island countries. The Asian Development Bank is working closely with its Pacific developing member countries to prepare for and respond to the effects of climate change and natural hazards. This publication examines the often-overlooked dimension of resilience planning-how to brace economies for shocks caused by climate change and hazard events. It analyzes the exposure and vulnerability of Pacific economies to disaster events and outlines key resources for building fiscal and economic resilience.
Author: Ryota Nakatani Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513514881 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 28
Book Description
A big challenge for the economic development of small island countries is dealing with external shocks. The Pacific Islands are vulnerable to natural disasters, climate change, commodity price changes, and uncertain donor grants. The question that arises is how should small developing countries formulate a fiscal policy to achieve economic stability and fiscal sustainability when prone to various shocks? We study how natural disasters affect long-term debt dynamics and propose fiscal policy rules that could help insulate the economy from such unexpected shocks. We propose fiscal rules to address these shocks and uncertainties using the example of Papua New Guinea. Our study finds the advantages of expenditure rules, especially a recurrent expenditure rule based on non-resource and non-grant revenue, interdependently determined by government debt and budget balance targets with expected disaster shocks. This paper contributes to the literature and policy dialogue by theoretically analyzing the impact of natural disasters on debt sustainability and proposing fiscal rules against natural disasters and climate changes. Our fiscal policy framework is practically applicable for many developing countries facing increasing frequency and impact of natural disasters and climate change. Our rules-based fiscal framework is crucial for sustainable and countercyclical macroeconomic policies to build resilience against devastating natural hazards.
Author: Walter Leal Filho Publisher: Springer Nature ISBN: 3030405524 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 318
Book Description
This book presents papers written by scholars, practitioners, and members of social movements and government agencies pursuing research and/or climate change projects in the Pacific region. Climate change is impacting the Pacific in various ways, including numerous negative effects on the natural environment and biodiversity. As such, a better understanding of how climate change affects Pacific communities is required, in order to identify processes, methods, and tools that can help countries and the communities in the region to adapt and become more resilient. Further, the book showcases successful examples of how to cope with the social, economic, and political problems posed by climate change in the region.
Author: Jenny Bryant-Tokalau Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3319783998 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 125
Book Description
This book explores how Pacific Island communities are responding to the challenges wrought by climate change—most notably fresh water accessibility, the growing threat of disease, and crop failure. The Pacific Island nations are not alone in facing these challenges, but their responses are unique in that they arise from traditional and community-based understandings of climate and disaster. Knowledge sharing, community education, and widespread participation in decision-making have promoted social resilience to such challenges across the Pacific. In this exploration of the Pacific Island countries, Bryant-Tokalau demonstrates that by understanding the inter-relatedness of local expertise, customary resource management, traditional knowledge and practice, as well as the roles of leaders and institutions, local “knowledge-practice-belief systems” can be used to inform adaptation to disasters wherever they occur.
Author: Ria Shibata Publisher: Taylor & Francis ISBN: 1000988422 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 171
Book Description
Shibata, Carroll and Boege address the various dimensions of the climate change–conflict nexus and shed light on the overwhelming challenges of climate change in the Pacific Islands region. This book highlights the multidimensionality of the problems: political, technical, material, and emotional and psychological. Written by experts in the field, the chapters highlight the centrality and importance of opening up a dialogue between researchers involved in the large-scale global modelling of climate change and the local actors. Both scholars and civil society actors come together in sharing about the complexities of local contexts and the conflictdriving potential of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies on the ground. The book brings together indigenous Pacific approaches with broader international debates in the climate change–security discourse. Through various accounts and perspectives, current gaps in knowledge are bridged, contributing to the development of more grounded, conflict-sensitive climate change policies, strategies, governance and adaptation measures in the Pacific region. An important resource for students, researchers, policymakers and civil society actors interested in the multi-faceted issues of climate change in the Pacific.
Author: Dongyeol Lee
Author: Dongyeol Lee
Author: Ezequiel Cabezon
Author: Ilan Noy
Author: Asian Development Bank
Author: Ryota Nakatani
Author: John E. Hay
Author: Walter Leal Filho
Author: Hoe Ee Khor
Author: Jenny Bryant-Tokalau
Author: Ria Shibata