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Author: Menzie David Chinn Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451854250 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 30
Book Description
The concept of purchasing power parity (PPP) is used to evaluate whether eight East Asian currencies were overvalued on the eve of the 1997 crises. The Johansen and Horvath-Watson cointegration test procedures are applied to bilateral and multilateral exchange rates, deflated using CPIs, producer price indices (PPIs), and price indices of export goods. The second deflator yields the greatest evidence of “stationarity.” The study find’s that the Malaysian, Philippines, and Thai currencies were overvalued, while the Korean and Indonesian were substantially undervalued. Mixed results were obtained for the others. Measures of the equilibrium rate based on time trends in CPI-deflated rates typically suggest larger overvaluations.
Author: Maria Johnsen Publisher: Maria Johnsen ISBN: Category : Computers Languages : en Pages : 414
Book Description
As artificial intelligence evolves, the gap between AI’s programmed objectives and human values becomes a critical challenge. In AI Misalignment: Navigating the Risks of Advanced Intelligence, readers are guided through the complex landscape of AI misalignment—where intelligent systems may pursue actions that conflict with human goals, potentially leading to harmful consequences. The book explores foundational theories such as the Orthogonality Thesis, which posits that intelligence and goals are not inherently linked, and delves into the value alignment problem—the challenge of designing AI that consistently adopts human objectives. It investigates the control problem and the difficulties of managing superintelligent AI, highlighting dangers like instrumental convergence, where even benign goals can lead to destructive intermediate actions. Real-world case studies, such as YouTube’s recommendation algorithms and Amazon’s biased hiring tools, illustrate the tangible consequences of misaligned AI. Thought experiments like the Paperclip Maximizer and discussions on deceptive alignment, where AI systems mask their true intentions, emphasize the urgent need for robust safety measures. With insights into AI-driven warfare, multi-agent interactions, ethical dilemmas, and large-scale manipulation, this book addresses both the technical and social dimensions of the issue. Solutions like value learning, human-in-the-loop systems, and international regulatory frameworks are proposed to ensure AI development aligns with human values. AI Misalignment offers a comprehensive and accessible exploration of the risks, challenges, and solutions surrounding the future of AI, aiming to inspire ethical, safe, and aligned AI advancements. Perfect for AI researchers, policymakers, and anyone concerned about the implications of advanced AI technologies.
Author: Menzie David Chinn Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451854250 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 30
Book Description
The concept of purchasing power parity (PPP) is used to evaluate whether eight East Asian currencies were overvalued on the eve of the 1997 crises. The Johansen and Horvath-Watson cointegration test procedures are applied to bilateral and multilateral exchange rates, deflated using CPIs, producer price indices (PPIs), and price indices of export goods. The second deflator yields the greatest evidence of “stationarity.” The study find’s that the Malaysian, Philippines, and Thai currencies were overvalued, while the Korean and Indonesian were substantially undervalued. Mixed results were obtained for the others. Measures of the equilibrium rate based on time trends in CPI-deflated rates typically suggest larger overvaluations.
Author: Robert B. McMillan Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 9780824750527 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 248
Book Description
A theoretical and practical understanding of unbalance and misalignment in rotating equipment is presented here. These two conditions account for the vast majority of problems with rotating equipment encountered in the real world.;Numerous examples and solutions are included to assist in understanding the various concepts. Included is information on vibration and how it is used to determine the operational integrity of rotating machinery. Also detailed are the relationships between various vibration characteristics which provide an understanding of the forces generated within operating machinery when conditions of unbalance and misalignment are present. Resonance and beat frequencies are detailed along with sources and cures.;Also covered are proper inspection procedures, single plane and dual plane methods of balancing rotating equipment, the three circle method of balancing slow speed fans, advanced rim and face method of precision alignment, and the reverse indicator method of alignment plus much more to fortify the learning experience.
Author: Joel Seligman Publisher: Aspen Publishers ISBN: 9781543829563 Category : Languages : en Pages : 1194
Book Description
In Misalignment: The New Financial Order and the Failure of Financial Regulation, Joel Seligman provides a broad account of banking, insurance, and securities regulation from the beginning of the United States through the 2007-2009 financial crisis and concludes with a plan for a fundamentally different approach to financial regulation that is more likely to avoid financial meltdowns in the future and minimize financial perturbations. The history of financial regulation in the United States is a history of crisis reaction. Before the New Deal, uncoordinated regulatory systems were established in banking and insurance. In the New Deal period, the U.S. achieved a long-stable model of financial regulation that atomized financial firms and substantially increased investor and depositor protection. After World War II, the New Deal financial regulatory model deteriorated and vast areas of finance evolved outside of regulation. No event better crystalized this deterioration than the financial debacle of 2007-2009. How was such a debacle possible in a nation whose financial regulatory system was long considered the finest in the world? More than any other cause, the misalignment of the Treasury, Federal Reserve System, and regulatory systems designed in earlier crises to address specific industries was overwhelmed by a New Financial Order, financial supermarkets that operated in several financial fields simultaneously. The 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010 was at best a partial response to the greatest financial calamity in our history since the 1929-1932 stock market crash. The failure of Dodd-Frank to address the structure of financial regulation was its most conspicuous weakness. Misalignment proposes a plan for a different approach to financial regulation designed to avoid economic failures in the future and minimize financial disorder.
Author: Richard C. Marston Publisher: University of Chicago Press ISBN: 0226507254 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 332
Book Description
Economists writing on flexible exchange rates in the 1960s foresaw neither the magnitude nor the persistence of the changes in real exchange rates that have occurred in the last fifteen years. Unexpectedly large movements in relative prices have lead to sharp changes in exports and imports, disrupting normal trading relations and causing shifts in employment and output. Many of the largest changes are not equilibrium adjustments to real disturbances but represent instead sustained departures from long-run equilibrium levels, with real exchange rates remaining "misaligned" for years at a time. Contributors to Misalignment of Exchange Rates address a series of questions about misalignment. Several papers investigate the causes of misalignment and the extent to which observed movements in real exchange rates can be attributed to misalignment. These studies are conducted both empirically, through the experiences of the United States, Great Britain, Japan, and the countries of the European Monetary System, and theoretically, through models of imperfect competition. Attention is then turned to the effects of misalignment, especially on employment and production, and to detailed estimates of the effects of changes in exchange rates on several industries, including the U.S. auto industry. In response to the contention that there is significant "hysteresis" in the adjustment of employment and production to changes in exchange rates, contributors also attempt to determine whether the effects of misalignment can be reversed once exchange rates return to earlier levels. Finally, the issue of how to avoid—or at least control—misalignment through macroeconomic policy is confronted.
Author: Mr.Atsushi Iimi Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451864000 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 31
Book Description
Botswana's successive currency devaluations and recent move from a fixed to a crawling peg exchange rate regime raise the question of whether the exchange rate might be misaligned with economic fundamentals. This paper, applying the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) approach, analyzes the behavior of the real exchange rate for the period 1985-2004. It finds that the pula was undervalued in the later 1980s but overvalued in recent years. Some policy lessons from experiences in other countries with crawling peg arrangements are therefore considered in the context of Botswana.
Author: Carlos Goncalves Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484330137 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 15
Book Description
The impact of real exchange rate movements on GDP growth is a hotly debated issue both in policy and academic circles. In this paper, we provide evidence suggesting that the association between exchange rate misalignment and growth for a broad panel of countries is very weak. Controlling for country fixed effects, time effects and initial GDP, a more depreciated currency is associated with higher growth if one does not exclude outliers. However, this positive association always vanishes after controling for the savings rate. Importantly, this applies for both a large panel of countries and for the emerging economies subsample.
Author: Brian Christian Publisher: W. W. Norton & Company ISBN: 039363583X Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 459
Book Description
A jaw-dropping exploration of everything that goes wrong when we build AI systems and the movement to fix them. Today’s “machine-learning” systems, trained by data, are so effective that we’ve invited them to see and hear for us—and to make decisions on our behalf. But alarm bells are ringing. Recent years have seen an eruption of concern as the field of machine learning advances. When the systems we attempt to teach will not, in the end, do what we want or what we expect, ethical and potentially existential risks emerge. Researchers call this the alignment problem. Systems cull résumés until, years later, we discover that they have inherent gender biases. Algorithms decide bail and parole—and appear to assess Black and White defendants differently. We can no longer assume that our mortgage application, or even our medical tests, will be seen by human eyes. And as autonomous vehicles share our streets, we are increasingly putting our lives in their hands. The mathematical and computational models driving these changes range in complexity from something that can fit on a spreadsheet to a complex system that might credibly be called “artificial intelligence.” They are steadily replacing both human judgment and explicitly programmed software. In best-selling author Brian Christian’s riveting account, we meet the alignment problem’s “first-responders,” and learn their ambitious plan to solve it before our hands are completely off the wheel. In a masterful blend of history and on-the ground reporting, Christian traces the explosive growth in the field of machine learning and surveys its current, sprawling frontier. Readers encounter a discipline finding its legs amid exhilarating and sometimes terrifying progress. Whether they—and we—succeed or fail in solving the alignment problem will be a defining human story. The Alignment Problem offers an unflinching reckoning with humanity’s biases and blind spots, our own unstated assumptions and often contradictory goals. A dazzlingly interdisciplinary work, it takes a hard look not only at our technology but at our culture—and finds a story by turns harrowing and hopeful.
Author: Debowicz, Dario Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst ISBN: Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 28
Book Description
Recent findings in the growth literature suggest that developing countries need to keep a devalued exchange rate to stimulate their economic growth. Building on these findings, we econometrically evaluate to what ex-tent the real exchange rate of Pakistan has been aligned with its economic fundamentals, and find that the Pa-kistan rupee has been significantly and systematically overvalued during the last years. We then simulate the general equilibrium effects of an eventual re-alignment of the real exchange rate with economic fundamen-tals, and find not only an expected increase in the relative size of the tradable sector - where productivity in-creases tend to be faster but also an associated improvement in the income of the poorest groups.
Author: Menzie David Chinn
Author: Maria Johnsen 
Author: Menzie David Chinn
Author: Robert B. McMillan
Author: Joel Seligman
Author: Richard C. Marston
Author: Mr.Atsushi Iimi
Author: Carlos Goncalves
Author: Arnold K. Johnson
Author: Brian Christian
Author: Debowicz, Dario