Author: Amy Rice (Economic analyst)Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic indicators
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
Measuring Uncertainty and Its Impact on the New Zealand Economy
Author: Amy Rice (Economic analyst)Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic indicators
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
Measuring Uncertainty and Its Impact on a Small Open Economy
Author: Lucy GreigPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
We study the effect of uncertainty in New Zealand, a small open economy, by considering global and New Zealand-specific uncertainty proxies, including several US- and global-centric measures and two novel New Zealand-specific uncertainty proxies constructed using surveys of New Zealand firms and professional forecasters. We study the effect of uncertainty on a set of New Zealand macroeconomic variables. While all of the uncertainty proxies contain valuable information to understand macroeconomic fluctuations in New Zealand, a simple SVAR analysis suggests that global uncertainty is more important than domestic uncertainty in driving the New Zealand business cycle. The implications of uncertainty for monetary policy largely depend on how heightened uncertainty interacts with monetary policy objectives.
Measuring Uncertainty and Its Effects on the Economy
Author: Wei-Fong PanMeasuring Uncertainty for New Zealand Using Data-Rich Approach
Author: Trung Duc TranPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
This paper develops two state-of-the-art uncertainty indices for New Zealand by exploiting two separate data-rich environments. The first index follows the methodology outlined in Jurado, Ludvigson and Ng (2015) to construct an estimate of uncertainty based on a large New Zealand macro dataset. The second index is constructed based on freely accessible and real time Google Trends data to provide a real-time and freely-accessible measure of uncertainty as in Castelnuovo and Tran (2017) and Shields and Tran (2018). Both indices do a reasonable job measuring uncertainty in New Zealand. VAR evidence documents significant impacts of uncertainty shocks on GDP in New Zealand.
Measuring Economic Uncertainty and Its Effects
Author: Angus MooreThe New Zealand Economy
Author: E. HaywoodPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic indicators
Languages : en
Pages : 31
Book Description
The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the UK Economy
Author: MissStephanie DenisPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 161635562X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46
Book Description
This paper quantifies the economic impact of uncertainty shocks in the UK using data that span the recent Great Recession. We find that uncertainty shocks have a significant impact on economic activity in the UK, depressing industrial production and GDP. The peak impact is felt fairly quickly at around 6-12 months after the shock, and becomes statistically negligible after 18 months. Interestingly, the impact of uncertainty shocks on industrial production in the UK is strikingly similar to that of the US both in terms of the shape and magnitude of the response. However, unemployment in the UK is less affected by uncertainty shocks. Finally, we find that uncertainty shocks can account for about a quarter of the decline in industrial production during the Great Recession.
New Zealand
Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific DeptPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513514768
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 47
Book Description
This Selected Issues paper discusses interactions between external risks and the New Zealand economy. The current set of external risks has the potential to be extremely damaging to New Zealand, but two factors would likely mitigate the economic impact. First, the flexible exchange rate regime is a reliable shock absorber and automatic stabilizer from the perspective of GDP, although it leads to a rebalancing between the domestic and external sectors in the economy. Second, net migration flows can reduce the negative impact of lower external demand under some circumstances, such as a growth slowdown in Australia. Fiscal policy could also offset some of the short-term costs of adjustment. Fiscal policy can provide stimulus at relatively small and manageable cost to the already-low government debt to GDP ratio. Moreover, at the current juncture, fiscal policy might need to provide the bulk of policy support against negative shocks, as monetary policy might be ineffective if has become constrained by an effective lower bound on the monetary policy interest rate.
The New Zealand Macroeconomy
Author: Paul DalzielPublisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 150
Book Description
Provides data and graphs of more than 45 key indicators of macroeconomic performance in New Zealand over the last 35 years.
The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firm Decisions
Author: Saten KumarPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Corporations
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
Using a new survey of firms in New Zealand, we document how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by firms affects their economic decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of future economic growth to generate exogenous changes in the perceived macroeconomic uncertainty of some firms. The effects on their decisions relative to their initial plans as well as relative to an untreated control group are measured in a follow-up survey six months later. We find that as firms become more uncertain, they reduce their prices, employment, and investment, their sales decline, and they become less likely to invest in new technologies or open new facilities. These ex-post effects of uncertainty are similar to how firms say they would respond to higher uncertainty when asked hypothetical questions.