Market Efficiency and Natural Selection in a Commodity Futures Market PDF Download

Author: Guo Ying Luo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Book Description
While the literature usually justifies informational efficiency in the context of rationality, this paper shows informational efficiency by applying the evolutionary idea of natural selection. In a dynamic futures market, speculators are assumed to merely act upon their predetermined trading types (buyer or seller), their predetermined fractions of wealth allocated for speculation and their inherent abilities to predict the spot price, reflected in their distributions of prediction errors with respect to the spot price. This paper shows that the proportion of time that the futures price equals the spot price converges to one with probability 1.

Author: Andrew W. Lo
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199681147
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 801

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Book Description
The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis is a formal and systematic exposition. Lo and Zhang develop the mathematical foundations of the simple yet powerful evolutionary model and show that the most fundamental economic behaviours that we take for granted emerge solely through natural selection.

Author: Market Technician's Association
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119251400
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 855

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Book Description
Everything you need to pass Level I of the CMT Program CMT Level I 2016: An Introduction to Technical Analysis fully prepares you to demonstrate the basic competencies of an entry-level analyst, including a working knowledge of terminology and the ability to discuss key concepts and fundamental analytical tools. Covered topics address theory and history, markets, market indicators, construction, confirmation, cycles, selection and decision, system testing, statistical analysis, and ethics. The Level I exam emphasizes trend, chart, and pattern analysis. This cornerstone guidebook of the Chartered Market Technician® Program will provide every advantage to passing Level I.

Author: Cheng Few Lee
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 9814478830
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 269

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Book Description
News Professor Cheng-Few Lee ranks #1 based on his publications in the 26 core finance journals, and #163 based on publications in the 7 leading finance journals (Source: Most Prolific Authors in the Finance Literature: 1959-2008 by Jean L Heck and Philip L Cooley (Saint Joseph's University and Trinity University). Market microstructure is the study of how markets operate and how transaction dynamics can affect security price formation and behavior. The impact of microstructure on all areas of finance has been increasingly apparent. Empirical microstructure has opened the door for improved transaction cost measurement, volatility dynamics and even asymmetric information measures, among others. Thus, this field is an important building block towards understanding today's financial markets. One of the pioneers in the field of market microstructure is David K Whitcomb, who retired from Rutgers University in 1999 after 25 years of service. David generously funded the David K Whitcomb Center for Research in Financial Services, located at Rutgers University. The Center organized a conference at Rutgers in his honor. This conference showcased papers and research conducted by the leading luminaries in the field of microstructure and drew a broad and illustrious audience of academicians, practitioners and former students, all who came to pay tribute to David K Whitcomb. Most of the papers in this volume were presented at that conference and the contributions to this volume are a lasting bookmark in microstructure. The coverage of topics on this volume is broad, ranging from the theoretical to empirical, and covering various issues from market architecture to liquidity and volatility.

Author: Andrew W. Lo
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691191360
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 502

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Book Description
"Half of all Americans have money in the stock market, yet economists can't agree on whether investors and markets are ration and efficient, as modern financial theory assumes, or irrational and inefficient, as behavioral economists believe - and as financial bubbles, crashes, and crises suggest. This is one of the biggest debates in economics, and the value or futility of investment management and financial regulation hang on the outcome. In this groundbreaking book, Andrew Lo cuts through this debate with a new framework, the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis, in which rationality and irrationality coexist. Drawing on psychology, evolutionary biology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, and other fields, "Adaptive Markets" shows that the theory of marked efficiency isn't wrong but merely incomplete. When markets are unstable, investors react instinctively, creating inefficiencies for others to exploit. Lo's new paradigm explains how financial evolution shapes behavior and markets at the speed of thought - a fact revealed by swings between stability and crisis, profit and loss, and innovation and regulation."--Inside flap.

Author: Andrew W. Lo
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1576603490
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 224

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Book Description
A comprehensive history of the evolution of technical analysis from ancient times to the Internet age Whether driven by mass psychology, fear or greed of investors, the forces of supply and demand, or a combination, technical analysis has flourished for thousands of years on the outskirts of the financial establishment. In The Evolution of Technical Analysis: Financial Prediction from Babylonian Tablets to Bloomberg Terminals, MIT's Andrew W. Lo details how the charting of past stock prices for the purpose of identifying trends, patterns, strength, and cycles within market data has allowed traders to make informed investment decisions based in logic, rather than on luck. The book Reveals the origins of technical analysis Compares and contrasts the Eastern practices of China and Japan to Western methods Details the contributions of pioneers such as Charles Dow, Munehisa Homma, Humphrey B. Neill, and William D. Gann The Evolution of Technical Analysis explores the fascinating history of technical analysis, tracing where technical analysts failed, how they succeeded, and what it all means for today's traders and investors.

Author: Market Technician's Association
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119361672
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 640

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Book Description
Everything you need to pass Level I of the CMT Program CMT Level I 2017: An Introduction to Technical Analysis fully prepares you to demonstrate the basic competencies of an entry-level analyst, including a working knowledge of terminology and the ability to discuss key concepts and fundamental analytical tools. Covered topics address theory and history, markets, market indicators, construction, confirmation, cycles, selection and decision, system testing, and statistical analysis. The Level I exam emphasizes trend, chart, and pattern analysis. This cornerstone guidebook of the Chartered Market Technician® Program will provide every advantage to passing Level I.

Author: CMT Association
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119871689
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 679

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Book Description
Get Your Copy of the 2022 Official CMT® Level I Curriculum As the authoritative introduction to the basics of technical analysis, the Official CMT® Level I Curriculum includes the tools, content, and terminology you will need to prepare for the Level I exam and beyond. Published in partnership with the CMT Association, CMT Curriculum Level I 2022: An Introduction to Technical Analysis explores theory and history, markets, market indicators, construction, confirmation, cycles, selection and decision, system testing, and statistical analysis. This text covers all concepts appearing on the Level I CMT® exam, featuring industry-relevant topics and treatments of technical analysis in the context of portfolio management.

Author: Wiley
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119674379
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 672

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Book Description
Everything you need to pass Level I of the CMT Program CMT Level I 2020: An Introduction to Technical Analysis fully prepares you to demonstrate the basic competencies of an entry-level analyst, including a working knowledge of terminology and the ability to discuss key concepts and fundamental analytical tools. Covered topics address theory and history, markets, market indicators, construction, confirmation, cycles, selection and decision, system testing, and statistical analysis. The Level I exam emphasizes trend, chart, and pattern analysis. This cornerstone guidebook of the Chartered Market Technician® Program will provide every advantage to passing the Level I CMT Exam.

Author: Guo Ying Luo
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461407125
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 207

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Book Description
One of the core building blocks of traditional economic theory is the concept of equilibrium, a state of the world in which economic forces are balanced and in the absence of external influences the values of economic variables remain static. Many traditional equilibrium models, or equilibria, are established based on the rational behavior of individuals within financial markets, such as traders, market analysts, and investing firms, and their ability to maximize profits, no matter the cost. Yet what happens when these market participants behave in an irrational manner, and how does this impact economic equilibria? Contemporary economists have agreed that a process similar to Darwin’s Theory of Natural Selection takes over, whereby equilibria are shaped not by the behavior of individual participants but by an environment outside its control (i.e., an environment with little concern for maximizing profits). It is an environment in which those “selected” produce positive financial gains, but have no regard for how it was obtained or underlying motivations—and those participants suffering losses disappear altogether. Evolutionary Foundations of Equilibria in Irrational Markets proves traditional economic equilibria continue to occur despite natural selection in irrational markets. It covers a wide sampling of equilibria under various scenarios, and each chapter addresses the results of these models at an aggregate level. The text is supplemented with charts and figures to drive home key findings and proofs, making it of interest to students and researchers in the areas of economics and behavioral finance.