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Author: Lars Peter Hansen Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1000237087 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 305
Book Description
At the core of the rational expectations revolution is the insight that economic policy does not operate independently of economic agents' knowledge of that policy and their expectations of the effects of that policy. This means that there are very complicated feedback relationships existing between policy and the behaviour of economic agents, and these relationships pose very difficult problems in econometrics when one tries to exploit the rational expectations insight in formal economic modelling. This volume consists of work by two rational expectations pioneers dealing with the "nuts and bolts" problems of modelling the complications introduced by rational expectations. Each paper deals with aspects of the problem of making inferences about parameters of a dynamic economic model on the basis of time series observations. Each exploits restrictions on an econometric model imposed by the hypothesis that agents within the model have rational expectations.
Author: Lars Peter Hansen Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1000237087 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 305
Book Description
At the core of the rational expectations revolution is the insight that economic policy does not operate independently of economic agents' knowledge of that policy and their expectations of the effects of that policy. This means that there are very complicated feedback relationships existing between policy and the behaviour of economic agents, and these relationships pose very difficult problems in econometrics when one tries to exploit the rational expectations insight in formal economic modelling. This volume consists of work by two rational expectations pioneers dealing with the "nuts and bolts" problems of modelling the complications introduced by rational expectations. Each paper deals with aspects of the problem of making inferences about parameters of a dynamic economic model on the basis of time series observations. Each exploits restrictions on an econometric model imposed by the hypothesis that agents within the model have rational expectations.
Author: Shu-Heng Chen Publisher: Oxford University Press ISBN: 0190877502 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 785
Book Description
The Oxford Handbook of Computational Economics and Finance provides a survey of both the foundations of and recent advances in the frontiers of analysis and action. It is both historically and interdisciplinarily rich and also tightly connected to the rise of digital society. It begins with the conventional view of computational economics, including recent algorithmic development in computing rational expectations, volatility, and general equilibrium. It then moves from traditional computing in economics and finance to recent developments in natural computing, including applications of nature-inspired intelligence, genetic programming, swarm intelligence, and fuzzy logic. Also examined are recent developments of network and agent-based computing in economics. How these approaches are applied is examined in chapters on such subjects as trading robots and automated markets. The last part deals with the epistemology of simulation in its trinity form with the integration of simulation, computation, and dynamics. Distinctive is the focus on natural computationalism and the examination of the implications of intelligent machines for the future of computational economics and finance. Not merely individual robots, but whole integrated systems are extending their "immigration" to the world of Homo sapiens, or symbiogenesis.
Author: Robert E. Lucas Publisher: U of Minnesota Press ISBN: 1452908281 Category : Languages : en Pages : 335
Book Description
Assumptions about how people form expectations for the future shape the properties of any dynamic economic model. To make economic decisions in an uncertain environment people must forecast such variables as future rates of inflation, tax rates, governme.
Author: L. Broze Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1136457801 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 144
Book Description
A comprehensive exposition of rational expectations models is provided here, working up from simple univariate models to more sophisticated multivariate and non-linear models.
Author: Ray C. Fair Publisher: Harvard University Press ISBN: 9780674831803 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 504
Book Description
This book gives a practical, applications-oriented account of the latest techniques for estimating and analyzing large, nonlinear macroeconomic models. Ray Fair demonstrates the application of these techniques in a detailed presentation of several actual models, including his United States model, his multicountry model, Sargent's classical macroeconomic model, autoregressive and vector autoregressive models, and a small (twelve equation) linear structural model. He devotes a good deal of attention to the difficult and often neglected problem of moving from theoretical to econometric models. In addition, he provides an extensive discussion of optimal control techniques and methods for estimating and analyzing rational expectations models. A computer program that handles all the techniques in the book is available from the author, making it possible to use the techniques with little additional programming. The book presents the logic of this program. A smaller program for personal microcomputers for analysis of Fair's United States model is available from Urban Systems Research & Engineering, Inc. Anyone wanting to learn how to use large macroeconomic models, including researchers, graduate students, economic forecasters, and people in business and government both in the United States and abroad, will find this an essential guidebook.
Author: Lars Peter Hansen Publisher: Princeton University Press ISBN: 0691170975 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 453
Book Description
The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.
Author: Robert E. Lucas Publisher: U of Minnesota Press ISBN: 1452901716 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 410
Book Description
Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice was first published in 1981. Minnesota Archive Editions uses digital technology to make long-unavailable books once again accessible, and are published unaltered from the original University of Minnesota Press editions. Assumptions about how people form expectations for the future shape the properties of any dynamic economic model. To make economic decisions in an uncertain environment people must forecast such variables as future rates of inflation, tax rates, government subsidy schemes and regulations. The doctrine of rational expectations uses standard economic methods to explain how those expectations are formed. This work collects the papers that have made significant contributions to formulating the idea of rational expectations. Most of the papers deal with the connections between observed economic behavior and the evaluation of alternative economic policies. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., is professor of economics at the University of Chicago. Thomas J. Sargent is professor of economics at the University of Minnesota and adviser to the Federal Reserve Bank of Minnesota.
Author: George McCandless Publisher: Harvard University Press ISBN: 0674033787 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 448
Book Description
The ABCs of RBCs is the first book to provide a basic introduction to Real Business Cycle (RBC) and New-Keynesian models. These models argue that random shocks—new inventions, droughts, and wars, in the case of pure RBC models, and monetary and fiscal policy and international investor risk aversion, in more open interpretations—can trigger booms and recessions and can account for much of observed output volatility. George McCandless works through a sequence of these Real Business Cycle and New-Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models in fine detail, showing how to solve them, and how to add important extensions to the basic model, such as money, price and wage rigidities, financial markets, and an open economy. The impulse response functions of each new model show how the added feature changes the dynamics. The ABCs of RBCs is designed to teach the economic practitioner or student how to build simple RBC models. Matlab code for solving many of the models is provided, and careful readers should be able to construct, solve, and use their own models. In the tradition of the “freshwater” economic schools of Chicago and Minnesota, McCandless enhances the methods and sophistication of current macroeconomic modeling.
Author: Ronald I. Mckinnon Publisher: JHU Press ISBN: 9780801847431 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 260
Book Description
Can knowledge of financial policies in developing countries over four decades help the socialist economies of Asia and Eastern Europe become open market economies in the 1990s? In all these countries the loss of fiscal and monetary control has often resulted in high inflation that undermines the liberalization process itself. In the second edition of The Order of Economic Liberalization, Ronald McKinnon builds on his influential work on the liberalization of financial markets in less developed countries and outlines the progression necessary to move from a "repressed" to an open economy. New to this edition are chapters that contrast the gradual Chinese approach to liberalizing domestic and foreign trade with the "big bang" approach followed by some Eastern European countries and republics of the former Soviet Union. Financial control and macroeconomic stability, McKinnon argues, are more critical to a successful transition than is any crash program to privatize state-owned industrial assets and the banking system.
Author: Lars Peter Hansen
Author: Lars Peter Hansen
Author: Charles H. Whiteman
Author: Shu-Heng Chen
Author: Robert E. Lucas
Author: L. Broze
Author: Ray C. Fair
Author: Lars Peter Hansen
Author: Robert E. Lucas
Author: George McCandless
Author: Ronald I. Mckinnon