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Author: Augusto de la Torre Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 1464801150 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 83
Book Description
This semiannual report examines the short and medium-term challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) as the external factors that were instrumental in the region s recent performance recede. In particular, we address the role of the exchange rate as a counter-cyclical policy tool to buffer adverse external shocks.
Author: Augusto de la Torre Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 1464801150 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 83
Book Description
This semiannual report examines the short and medium-term challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) as the external factors that were instrumental in the region s recent performance recede. In particular, we address the role of the exchange rate as a counter-cyclical policy tool to buffer adverse external shocks.
Author: Augusto de la Torre Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 146480429X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 73
Book Description
As usual in this series, Chapter 1 reviews the configuration of global risks and assesses the outstanding short term opportunities and challenges facing the LAC region. We document the significant slowdown in economic activity across the region, and explore the possibility of this being the ‘new normal’. In Chapter 2 we assess if the major social gains achieved during the ‘Golden Decade’, in particular the decline in inequality, will hold in this less supportive environment, and discuss alternative policy responses to preserve and further the equity gains in the region.
Author: Vegh, Carlos A. Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 1464812179 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 62
Book Description
"After a growth slowdown that lasted six years (including a contraction of 1.3 percent last year), the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) region is finally expected to resume positive growth in 2017, with market analysts forecasting real GDP growth of 1.2 percent for 2017 and 2.3 percent for 2018. The recovery, particularly in South America, will be led by a strong rebound in Argentina, which is expected to grow by 2.8 percent in 2017 and 3.0 percent in 2018, and Brazil, which is expected to resume positive growth as well, expanding by 0.7 percent in 2017 and 2.3 in 2018, after contracting for two consecutive years. The usual external drivers of growth (particularly commodity prices, and growth in China and U.S.) are expected to remain relatively neutral, which points to the need for the region to reinforce its own sources of growth (e.g., structural reforms, investment in infrastructure, and further international trade both within and outside the region). Unfortunately, the region finds itself in a weak fiscal situation with 28 out of 32 countries with an overall fiscal deficit, which implies that a gradual but sustained fiscal consolidation will be needed in the years ahead. The report's main focus (Chapter 2) is on the monetary policy dilemma faced by countries in LAC. When a typical commodity-exporter country in LAC is hit by, say, a negative terms of trade shock, real GDP falls, the currency depreciates, and inflation increases. The Central Bank faces the dilemma of (i) increasing policy rates to defend the currency/fight inflation, but at the cost of aggravating the recession or (ii) reducing the policy rate, thus stimulating output, but encouraging further depreciation and inflation. Traditionally, LAC countries have chosen the first option and have thus pursued procyclical monetary policy (i.e., increasing policy rates in bad times). Recently, however, many countries have been able to switch and become countercyclical (i.e., reducing policy rates in bad times), which enables them to prop up the economy in recessionary times (which is particularly important when lack of fiscal space precludes countercyclical fiscal policy)."
Author: Augusto de la Torre Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 1464806098 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 62
Book Description
The April 2015 LAC Semiannual Report covers the short-term prospects and provides an analysis of the external factors affecting the region's economic performance. The first chapter expands on LAC's economic outlook paying special attention to the global context and its effect on LAC’s economic performance. In this first Chapter we argue that the region experienced an external shock that has shaped growth in recent years, and that this shock is likely here to stay. Chapter 2 discusses the policy space available for LAC countries as they try to accommodate to the current global context. In particular, the first part of the second Chapter discusses the rather limited monetary fiscal and monetary space currently present in the region. The second part of the Chapter argues part of this limited policy space is associated to LAC’s relatively low savings rate. Moreover, the Chapter shows that in addition to the potential positive effects that higher savings could have on policy space, it could also have a beneficial effect on long-term growth.
Author: Alain Ize Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 1464807329 Category : Caribbean Area Languages : en Pages : 55
Book Description
Chapter 1 of the report covers the short-term prospects and provides an analysis of the external factors affecting the region's economic slowdown. The focus is on the adjustment challenges faced by those Latin American countries experiencing a major adverse terms of trade shock, which comes after an unprecedented (in magnitude and duration) period of terms of trade bonanza. Chapter 2 discusses the key topic of this semiannual report, that is, the implications of the slowdown for labor markets on jobs and wages. We describe the broad labor market trends observed during the boom and contrast them with the patterns observed during the slowdown. We also describe the implications of the slowdown for inequality. A corollary of the observed labor market patterns during the slowdown is that some of the gains towards greater income equality achieved in the past decade or so may be reversed, at least in part, and that we may see a divergence between labor income inequality and household income inequality, whereby the latter may rise more than the former.--Résumé de l'éditeur.
Author: Augusto de la Torre Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 1464802866 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 55
Book Description
As usual in this series, Chapter 1 reviews the configuration of global risks and assesses the outstanding short term opportunities and challenges facing the LAC region. A special focus is placed this time around on the difference between exposure and vulnerability to exogenous shocks, with the latter assessed by adjusting exposure for a country’s shock absorption policy capacity. Given the global context and associated concerns with capital flow volatility, in Chapter 2 we take a look at the comparatively more stable components of international flows: FDI and Remittances. The cyclicality and volatility, as well as the joint determinants of FDI and Remittances are reviewed.
Author: World Bank World Bank Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 1464802912 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 68
Book Description
In 2012, the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region continued its successful drive to reduce poverty and build the middle class. Poverty reduction was accompanied by strong income growth of the bottom 40 percent of the population, the World Bank’s indicator of shared prosperity. However, the recent economic slowdown and stagnation in inequality decline suggest that future social gains may be more difficult to achieve. Given the modest prospects ahead, the region’s poverty reduction strategy needs to focus on restoring growth and preserving macroeconomic stability, while reinforcing the ability of less advantaged groups to participate in and contribute to growth. This report assesses two relevant policy areas: equity of fiscal policy and equal access to basic goods and services for children that open the opportunity for them to lead lives of their choosing. Drawing on results from the Commitment to Equity project, the report shows that fiscal policy remains an underused instrument in terms of level and incidence of taxation and spending. The Human Opportunity Index underscores that opportunities are expanding for children in the region, but large gaps remain in access and quality.
Author: Augusto de la Torre Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 0821399756 Category : Languages : en Pages : 61
Book Description
This semiannual report — a product of the Office of the Chief Economist for Latin America and the Caribbean Region of the World Bank — examines the short and medium-term challenges for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) as the external factors that were instrumental in the region’s recent performance recede. Chapter 1 gives an overview of the global economy and its implications for the short- and medium-term prospects of the LAC region. Chapter 2 provides a detailed analysis of the general patterns of domestic demand and supply observed in LAC over the last decade. In particular we document the steady increase in LAC’s domestic demand, especially its investment component, as a share of GDP over the 2000s. Moreover, we show that the rise of domestic demand has occurred in tandem with an expansion of the services sector. We assess what are the pitfalls and challenges for LAC’s growth pattern in a less benign global environment.
Author: World Bank Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 1464818061 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 60
Book Description
After its worst economic crisis in 100 years, Latin America and the Caribbean countries are emerging from the COVID†?19 pandemic. The need to recover dynamic, inclusive, and sustainable growth to redress both the legacy of the pandemic and long†?standing social needs has never been more acute. However, despite progress in some areas, the region is facing a weaker recovery than expected given the favorable international tailwinds and is likely return to the low growth rates of the 2010s. Moreover, growth could be further slowed by both internal and external factors: the emergence of a new variant of the virus, a rise in international interest rates to combat global inflation, and high levels of debt in both the private and public sector. Beyond offering the current macroeconomic outlook of the region and the near†?term challenges it faces, this report explores three broad areas where growth†?advancing policies and reforms could be undertaken within a constrained fiscal context: mobilizing sources of revenue that appear to be growthneutral; improving public spending efficiency to free up resources for other purposes; and reallocating spending to areas with highest growth and social impact.
Author: World Bank Group Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 146481760X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 420
Book Description
Although the global economy is emerging from the collapse triggered by COVID-19, the recovery is likely to be subdued, and global GDP is projected to remain well below its pre-pandemic trend for a prolonged period. Several risks cloud the outlook, including those related to the pandemic and to rapidly rising debt. The pandemic has further diminished already-weak growth prospects for the next decade. Decisive policy actions will be critical in raising the likelihood of better growth outcomes while warding off worse ones. Immediate priorities include supporting vulnerable groups and ensuring a prompt and widespread vaccination process to bring the pandemic under control. Although macroeconomic policy support will continue to be important, limited fiscal policy space amid high debt highlights the need for an ambitious reform agenda that bolsters growth prospects. To address many of these challenges, global cooperation will be key. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.
Author: Augusto de la Torre
Author: Augusto de la Torre
Author: Augusto de la Torre
Author: Vegh, Carlos A. 
Author: Augusto de la Torre
Author: Alain Ize
Author: Augusto de la Torre
Author: World Bank World Bank
Author: Augusto de la Torre
Author: World Bank
Author: World Bank Group