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Author: David Apgar Publisher: Harvard Business Press ISBN: 9781422131015 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 230
Book Description
Too many executives think risk management is strictly for technical specialists. In Risk Intelligence: Learning to Manage What We Don’t Know, David Apgar challenges this misconception. The author explains how to raise the quality of your risk analysis—-thus enhancing your “risk IQ”—-by applying four simple rules: 1) Recognize which risks are learnable—and reduce their uncertainty by discovering more about them. 2) Identify risks you can learn about the fastest. The higher your learning speed, the more a project is worth pursuing. 3) Take on risky projects one at a time—learning about the risks underlying each before moving to the next. 4) Build networks of business partners, suppliers, and customers who can collectively manage new ventures’ risks by playing distinct roles. The book provides two tools for improving your risk IQ—the Risk Intelligence Audit and the Risk Scorecard—and concludes with a 10-step action plan for systematically raising your managerial and organizational risk IQ. Your reward? Smarter business decisions over time.
Author: David Apgar Publisher: Harvard Business Press ISBN: 9781422131015 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 230
Book Description
Too many executives think risk management is strictly for technical specialists. In Risk Intelligence: Learning to Manage What We Don’t Know, David Apgar challenges this misconception. The author explains how to raise the quality of your risk analysis—-thus enhancing your “risk IQ”—-by applying four simple rules: 1) Recognize which risks are learnable—and reduce their uncertainty by discovering more about them. 2) Identify risks you can learn about the fastest. The higher your learning speed, the more a project is worth pursuing. 3) Take on risky projects one at a time—learning about the risks underlying each before moving to the next. 4) Build networks of business partners, suppliers, and customers who can collectively manage new ventures’ risks by playing distinct roles. The book provides two tools for improving your risk IQ—the Risk Intelligence Audit and the Risk Scorecard—and concludes with a 10-step action plan for systematically raising your managerial and organizational risk IQ. Your reward? Smarter business decisions over time.
Author: Gerd Gigerenzer Publisher: Simon and Schuster ISBN: 1439127093 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 328
Book Description
At the beginning of the twentieth century, H. G. Wells predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. But in the twenty-first century, we are often overwhelmed by a baffling array of percentages and probabilities as we try to navigate in a world dominated by statistics. Cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer says that because we haven't learned statistical thinking, we don't understand risk and uncertainty. In order to assess risk -- everything from the risk of an automobile accident to the certainty or uncertainty of some common medical screening tests -- we need a basic understanding of statistics. Astonishingly, doctors and lawyers don't understand risk any better than anyone else. Gigerenzer reports a study in which doctors were told the results of breast cancer screenings and then were asked to explain the risks of contracting breast cancer to a woman who received a positive result from a screening. The actual risk was small because the test gives many false positives. But nearly every physician in the study overstated the risk. Yet many people will have to make important health decisions based on such information and the interpretation of that information by their doctors. Gigerenzer explains that a major obstacle to our understanding of numbers is that we live with an illusion of certainty. Many of us believe that HIV tests, DNA fingerprinting, and the growing number of genetic tests are absolutely certain. But even DNA evidence can produce spurious matches. We cling to our illusion of certainty because the medical industry, insurance companies, investment advisers, and election campaigns have become purveyors of certainty, marketing it like a commodity. To avoid confusion, says Gigerenzer, we should rely on more understandable representations of risk, such as absolute risks. For example, it is said that a mammography screening reduces the risk of breast cancer by 25 percent. But in absolute risks, that means that out of every 1,000 women who do not participate in screening, 4 will die; while out of 1,000 women who do, 3 will die. A 25 percent risk reduction sounds much more significant than a benefit that 1 out of 1,000 women will reap. This eye-opening book explains how we can overcome our ignorance of numbers and better understand the risks we may be taking with our money, our health, and our lives.
Author: Steven Woloshin Publisher: Univ of California Press ISBN: 0520252225 Category : Family & Relationships Languages : en Pages : 154
Book Description
Understanding risk -- Putting risk in perspective -- Risk charts : a way to get perspective -- Judging the benefit of a health intervention -- Not all benefits are equal : understand the outcome -- Consider the downsides -- Do the benefits outweight the downsides? -- Beware of exaggerated importance -- Beware of exaggerated certainty -- Who's behind the numbers?
Author: Romney Duffey Publisher: Elsevier ISBN: 0080509738 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 259
Book Description
We live in a technological world, exposed to many risks and errors and the fear of death. Know the Risk shows us how we can learn from the many errors and tragic accidents which have plagued our developing technological world.This breakthrough volume presents a new concept and theory that shows how errors can and should be analyzed so that learning and experience are accounted for. The authors show that, by using a universal learning curve, errors can be tracked and managed so that they are reduced to the smallest number possible.The authors have devoted a number of years to gathering data, analyzing theories relating to error reduction, design improvement, management of errors and assignment of cause. The analyzed data relates to millions of errors. They find a common thread between all technology-related accidents and link all of these errors (from the headline stories to the everyday accidents). They challenge the reader to take a different look at the stream of threats, risks, dangers, statistics and errors by presenting a new perspective. The book makes use of detailed illustrations and explores many headline accidents which highlight human weaknesses in harnessing and exploiting the technology we have developed; from the Titanic to Chernobyl, Bhopal to Concorde, the Mary Rose to the Paddington rail crash and examine errors over which we have little or no control. By analyzing the vast data society has collected, the authors show how the famous accidents and our everyday risks are related.The authors prove the strength of their observations by comparing their findings to the recorded history of tragedies, disasters, accidents and incidents in chemical, airline, shipping, rail, automobile, nuclear, medical, industrial and manufacturing technologies. They also address the management of Quality and losses in production, the search for zero defects and the avoidance of personal risk and danger.Stresses the importance of a learning environment for safety improvementPlaces both quality and safety management in the same learning contextLearn how to track and manage errors to reduce as quickly as possible
Author: Dan Gardner Publisher: McClelland & Stewart ISBN: 1551992108 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 510
Book Description
In the tradition of Malcolm Gladwell, Gardner explores a new way of thinking about the decisions we make. We are the safest and healthiest human beings who ever lived, and yet irrational fear is growing, with deadly consequences — such as the 1,595 Americans killed when they made the mistake of switching from planes to cars after September 11. In part, this irrationality is caused by those — politicians, activists, and the media — who promote fear for their own gain. Culture also matters. But a more fundamental cause is human psychology. Working with risk science pioneer Paul Slovic, author Dan Gardner sets out to explain in a compulsively readable fashion just what that statement above means as to how we make decisions and run our lives. We learn that the brain has not one but two systems to analyze risk. One is primitive, unconscious, and intuitive. The other is conscious and rational. The two systems often agree, but occasionally they come to very different conclusions. When that happens, we can find ourselves worrying about what the statistics tell us is a trivial threat — terrorism, child abduction, cancer caused by chemical pollution — or shrugging off serious risks like obesity and smoking. Gladwell told us about “the black box” of our brains; Gardner takes us inside, helping us to understand how to deconstruct the information we’re bombarded with and respond more logically and adaptively to our world. Risk is cutting-edge reading.
Author: Gerd Gigerenzer Publisher: Penguin UK ISBN: 0140297863 Category : Education Languages : en Pages : 239
Book Description
Are ordinary people able to reason with risk? Detailing case histories and examples, this text presents readers with tools for understanding statistics. In so doing, it encourages us to overcome our innumeracy and empowers us to take responsibility for our own choices.
Author: Ben Carson, M.D. Publisher: Zondervan ISBN: 0310315921 Category : Religion Languages : en Pages : 244
Book Description
By avoiding risk, are you also avoiding your life's full potential? Join acclaimed neurosurgeon Dr. Ben Carson as he explores the life-changing power of taking the risk, even if you're afraid. In our risk-avoidant culture, we place a high premium on safety. We insure our vacations. We check crash tests on cars. We extend the warranties on our appliances. But by insulating ourselves from the unknown--the natural risks of life--we miss the great adventure of living our lives to their fullest potential. Dr. Ben Carson spent his childhood as an at-risk child on the streets of Detroit, and he took big risks in performing complex surgeries on the brain and the spinal cord. Now, offering inspiring personal examples, Dr. Carson invites us to embrace risk in our own lives. In Take the Risk, Dr. Carson examines our safety-at-all-costs culture and the meaning of risk and security in our lives. Take the Risk guides you through an extensive examination of risk, including: Risk-taking in history An assessment of the real costs and rewards of risk Learning how to assess and accept risks Understanding how risk reveals the purpose of your life From a man whose life dramatically portrays the connection between great risks and greater successes, the insights Dr. Carson shares in Take the Risk will help you dispel your fear of risk in order to dream big, aim high, move with confidence, and reap the rewards of wise risk-taking. Praise for Take the Risk: "Whether you are a world-renowned neurosurgeon, a CEO, or a teacher, this book applies to anyone who ever wondered about the difference between the pacesetters and those who struggle to keep up. It is the pacesetters who Take the Risk, and this book explains when and why to take risks to empower everyone to become a trailblazer rather than a mere spectator. For anyone who wants to rise above mediocrity, this book is a must-read." --Armstrong Williams, author and radio host, The Armstrong Williams Show
Author: John X. Wang Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 9780824793012 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 268
Book Description
"Explains how to assess and handle technical risk, schedule risk, and cost risk efficiently and effectively--enabling engineering professionals to anticipate failures regardless of system complexity--highlighting opportunities to turn failure into success."
Author: National Research Council Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309170362 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 164
Book Description
Adolescents obviously do not always act in ways that serve their own best interests, even as defined by them. Sometimes their perception of their own risks, even of survival to adulthood, is larger than the reality; in other cases, they underestimate the risks of particular actions or behaviors. It is possible, indeed likely, that some adolescents engage in risky behaviors because of a perception of invulnerabilityâ€"the current conventional wisdom of adults' views of adolescent behavior. Others, however, take risks because they feel vulnerable to a point approaching hopelessness. In either case, these perceptions can prompt adolescents to make poor decisions that can put them at risk and leave them vulnerable to physical or psychological harm that may have a negative impact on their long-term health and viability. A small planning group was formed to develop a workshop on reconceptualizing adolescent risk and vulnerability. With funding from Carnegie Corporation of New York, the Workshop on Adolescent Risk and Vulnerability: Setting Priorities took place on March 13, 2001, in Washington, DC. The workshop's goal was to put into perspective the total burden of vulnerability that adolescents face, taking advantage of the growing societal concern for adolescents, the need to set priorities for meeting adolescents' needs, and the opportunity to apply decision-making perspectives to this critical area. This report summarizes the workshop.
Author: David Murphy Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1584888946 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 472
Book Description
Sound risk management often involves a combination of both mathematical and practical aspects. Taking this into account, Understanding Risk: The Theory and Practice of Financial Risk Management explains how to understand financial risk and how the severity and frequency of losses can be controlled. It combines a quantitative approach with a
Author: David Apgar
Author: David Apgar
Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Author: Steven Woloshin
Author: Romney Duffey
Author: Dan Gardner
Author: Gerd Gigerenzer
Author: Ben Carson, M.D.
Author: John X. Wang
Author: National Research Council
Author: David Murphy