Is the People's Republic of China's Current Slowdown a Cyclical Downturn Or a Long-Term Trend? A Productivity-Based Analysis PDF Download

Author: Chong-En Bai
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 29

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Book Description
Whether the People's Republic of China's (PRC) economic slowdown since the 2008 financial crisis is a cyclical downturn or a long-run trend has important policy implications. Based on provincial panel data, this article identifies the determinants of productivity and uses counter-factual analysis to decompose the causes of the PRC's post-crisis slowdown. It finds that economic openness has a significantly positive impact on the technical efficiency of production, whereas the income level has a significantly negative effect. Second, a significantly negative correlation is observed between the stock of inventory and productivity, while the opposite is observed between employment involvement rate and productivity. Third, government size and investment rates both have significantly negative effects on productivity. Lastly, the diminishing late-mover advantage and the growth in investment rate are both major contributors to the current decline in the PRC's productivity. Although the stimulus-induced investment surge has effectively offset the negative effects of the crisis on the PRC's growth, it is not conducive to the growth of productivity and consumption. The current economic slowdown does not seem to be a cyclical downturn. Indeed, further reforms are needed to stabilize the PRC's growth.

Author: Debin Ma
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1316998592
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 867

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Book Description
China's rise as the world's second-largest economy surely is the most dramatic development in the global economy since the year 2000. Volume II, which spans China's two turbulent centuries from 1800, charts this wrenching process of an ancient empire being transformed to re-emerge as a major world power. This volume for the first time brings together the fruits of pioneering international scholarship in all dimensions of economic history to provide an authoritative and comprehensive overview of this tumultuous and dramatic transformation. In many cases, it offers a fundamental reinterpretation of major themes in Chinese economic history, such as the role of ideology, the rise of new institutions, human capital and public infrastructure, the impact of Western and Japanese imperialism, the role of external trade and investment, and the evolution of living standards in both the pre-Communist and Communist eras. The volume includes seven important chapters on the Mao and reform eras and provides a critical historical perspective linking the past with the present and future.

Author: Loren Brandt
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108480993
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 529

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Book Description
Openness and competition sparked major advances in Chinese industry. Recent policy reversals emphasizing indigenous innovation seem likely to disappoint.

Author: Min Zhu
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513515357
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46

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Book Description
China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.

Author: Scott Hipsher
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9811059489
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 291

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Book Description
This book explores the issue of poverty reduction within mainland Southeast Asia with a specific focus on the impact of the private sector and tourism. Covering Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, and Yunnan, the book discusses how success in poverty reduction has come about largely through innovation in the private sector, foreign investment and the move toward more market based economic policies as opposed to foreign aid, or interventions by international development programs, to reduce poverty in the region.

Author: Chandan, Harish C.
Publisher: IGI Global
ISBN: 1522575626
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 314

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Book Description
The current world economy is interconnected; however, due to recent economic crises, trade deficits, and nationalist movements, there is a political trend of economic nationalism that is taking root in countries around the world. As such, global economies around the world are decreasing their international trade and introducing import tariffs and economic protectionism. International Firms’ Economic Nationalism and Trade Policies in the Globalization Era provides a comprehensive understanding of the recent rise of economic nationalism in the context of the hyper-connected global economy by providing strategies and country-specific solutions for domestic and international firms. Covering how multinational corporations can overcome the protectionist sentiments while reinventing their corporate social responsibility models, it showcases how economic nationalism and globalization can successfully coexist. This publication is ideally designed for business leaders, economists, professionals, policymakers, researchers, and academicians.

Author: Sergey Smolnikov
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319718851
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 316

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Book Description
This book seeks to answer one main question: what is the core concern of great powers that streamlines their behavior in the contemporary system of international relations? Building on the examples of the United States, China, Russia, France, and Britain, it tracks both consistency and fluctuations in global power dynamics and great power behavior. The author examines the genesis, causality, and policy implications of decision makers’ fixation with retaining a credible image of power in world politics, while exploring how the dynamics of power distribution in international systems modify perceptions of primacy. Drawing on findings from disciplines such as history, economics, social and political psychology, communication theory, philosophy, political science, strategic studies, and above all, from International Relations theory and practice, the volume proposes a novel theory of power credibility, which offers an original explanation of great powers’ behavior at the stage of their relative decline.

Author: David Dollar
Publisher: Brookings Institution Press
ISBN: 0815738064
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 444

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Book Description
How will China reform its economy as it aspires to become the next economic superpower? It's clear that China is the world's next economic superpower. But what isn't so clear is how China will get there by the middle of this century. It now faces tremendous challenges such as fostering innovation, dealing with ageing problem and coping with a less accommodative global environment. In this book, economists from China's leading university and America's best-known think tank offer in depth analyses of these challenges. Does China have enough talent and right policy and institutional mix to transit from input-driven to innovation-driven economy? What does ageing mean, in terms of labor supply, consumption demand and social welfare expenditure? Can China contain the environmental and climate change risks? How should the financial system be transformed in order to continuously support economic growth and keep financial risks under control? What fiscal reforms are required in order to balance between economic efficiency and social harmony? What roles should the state-owned enterprises play in the future Chinese economy? In addition, how will technological competition between the United States and China affect each country's development? Will the Chinese yuan emerge as a major reserve currency, and would this destabilize the international financial system? What will be China's role in the international economic institutions? And will the United States and other established powers accept a growing role for China and the rest of the developing world in the governance of global institutions such as the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund, or will the world devolve into competing blocs? This book provides unique insights into independent analyses and policy recommendations by a group of top Chinese and American scholars. Whether China succeeds or fails in economic reform will have a large impact, not just on China's development, but also on stability and prosperity for the whole world.

Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513536990
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50

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Book Description
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Author: Ding Ding
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484329317
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 26

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Book Description
China’s real estate market rebounded sharply after a temporary slowdown in 2014-2015. This paper uses city-level data to estimate the range of house price overvaluation across city-tiers and assesses the main risks of a sharp housing market slowdown. If house prices rise further beyond “fundamental” levels and the bubble expands to smaller cities, it would increase the likelihood and costs of a sharp correction, which would weaken growth, undermine financial stability, reduce local government spending room, and spur capital outflows. Empirical analysis suggests that the increasing intensity of macroprudential policies tailored to local conditions is appropriate. The government should expand its toolkit to include additional macroprudential measures and push forward reforms to address the fundamental imbalances in the residential housing market.