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Author: Xu Guo Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 54
Book Description
This paper constructs an investor sentiment measure at both individual bond and aggregate levels, uncovering the first evidence that investor sentiment has strong cross- sectional predictive power for corporate bond returns. High bond investor sentiment leads to low future returns. A portfolio that longs low sentiment bonds and shorts high sentiment ones generates an average monthly return of 0.87% for top-quality bonds and 1.48% for speculative-grade bonds. The results are robust to controlling for risk factors and bond characteristics. The cross-sectional predictability of bond returns is countercyclical, and the predictability appears to stem from its predictive power on macroeconomic conditions.
Author: Xu Guo Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 54
Book Description
This paper constructs an investor sentiment measure at both individual bond and aggregate levels, uncovering the first evidence that investor sentiment has strong cross- sectional predictive power for corporate bond returns. High bond investor sentiment leads to low future returns. A portfolio that longs low sentiment bonds and shorts high sentiment ones generates an average monthly return of 0.87% for top-quality bonds and 1.48% for speculative-grade bonds. The results are robust to controlling for risk factors and bond characteristics. The cross-sectional predictability of bond returns is countercyclical, and the predictability appears to stem from its predictive power on macroeconomic conditions.
Author: Jennie Bai Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
We provide time-series and cross-sectional evidence on the significance of a risk-return tradeoff in the corporate bond market. We find a significantly positive intertemporal relation between expected return and risk in the bond market and the time-series predictability is driven by aggregate systematic risk instead of aggregate idiosyncratic risk. We also propose a new measure of systematic risk for corporate bonds and find a positive link between systematic risk and the cross-section of future bond returns. We provide an explanation for the significance of systematic (idiosyncratic) risk based on different investor preferences and informational frictions in the bond (equity) market.
Author: Kee H. Chung Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 45
Book Description
This paper examines the pricing of volatility risk and idiosyncratic volatility in the cross-section of corporate bond returns for the period of 1994-2016. Results show that bonds with high volatility betas have low expected returns and this negative relation appears in all segments of corporate bonds. Further, bonds with high idiosyncratic bond (stock) volatility have high (low) expected returns, and this relation strengthens as ratings decrease. Conventional risk factors and bond/issuer characteristics cannot account for these cross-sectional relations. There is evidence that the effect of idiosyncratic stock volatility on expected bond returns works through the channel of contemporaneous stock returns.
Author: Gi H. Kim Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 42
Book Description
We provide a comprehensive empirical analysis on the implication of CDS-Bond basis arbitrage for the pricing of corporate bonds. Basis arbitrageurs introduce new risks such as funding liquidity and counterparty risk into the corporate bond market, which was dominated by passive investors before the existence of CDS. We show that a basis factor, constructed as the return differential between LOW and HIGH quintile basis portfolios, is a superior empirical proxy that captures the new risks. In the cross section of investment grade bond returns, the basis factor carries an annual risk premium of about 3% in normal periods.
Author: Jennie Bai Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 75
Book Description
We investigate the cross-sectional determinants of corporate bond returns and find that downside risk is the strongest predictor of future bond returns. We also introduce common risk factors based on the prevalent risk characteristics of corporate bonds -- downside risk, credit risk, and liquidity risk -- and find that these novel bond factors have economically and statistically significant risk premia that cannot be explained by long-established stock and bond market factors. We show that the newly proposed risk factors outperform all other models considered in the literature in explaining the returns of the industry- and size/maturity-sorted portfolios of corporate bonds.
Author: Himanshu Verma Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 19
Book Description
We examine momentum and reversal anomalies in corporate bond returns at the firm-level employing a novel dataset, SoKat Credit, comprising bonds of 323 of the largest and liquid companies over the period from 2002 to 2020. Our study documents significant short-term reversal in the cross-sectional of corporate bond returns concentrated at the one week interval with annualized returns on the zero investment long-short portfolio of 9.9%. We also document company-level momentum spillover effect into corporate bond returns when sorting on past equity returns, that is, our “bond-stock” strategy, which delivers annualized return of 5.0% is statistically significant and robust baring the usual suspects of caveats.
Author: Söhnke M. Bartram Publisher: ISBN: Category : Bonds Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
A corporate bond’s book value divided by its market price strongly predicts its return from actual transactions occurring at least eight days after observing the signal. Bonds with the 20% highest “bond book-to-market ratios” outperform their lowest quintile counterparts by 3%-4% per year, other things equal. The finding controls for numerous attributes tied to liquidity, default, microstructure, and priced asset risk, including yield, credit spread, structural model equity hedges, bond rating, and maturity. If an efficient markets story explained the 3%-4% spread, we would not observe (as we do) rapid decay in the ratio’s predictive efficacy with implementation delays beyond one month, efficacy across the bond-type spectrum, and an inability of microstructure, factor risk, and bond attributes to account for the anomaly.
Author: Abhay Abhyankar Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 46
Book Description
We study the cross-section of expected corporate bond returns using an inter-temporal CAPM (ICAPM) with three factors: innovations in future excess bond returns, future real interest rates and future expected inflation. Our test assets are a broad range of corporate bond market index portfolios. We find that two factors - innovations about future inflation and innovations about future real interest rates - explain the cross-section of expected corporate bond returns in our sample. Our model provides an alternative to the ad hoc risk factor models used, for example, in evaluating the performance of bond mutual funds.
Author: Wenjie Ding Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
We extend the noise trader risk model of Delong et al. (J Polit Econ 98:703-738, 1990) to a model with multiple risky assets to demonstrate the effect of investor sentiment on the cross-section of stock returns. Our model formally demonstrates that market-wide sentiment leads to relatively higher contemporaneous returns and lower subsequent returns for stocks that are more prone to sentiment and difficult to arbitrage. Our extended model is consistent with the existing empirical evidence on the relationship between sentiment and cross-sectional stock returns. Guided by the extended model, we also decompose investor sentiment into long- and short-run components and predict that long-run sentiment negatively associates with the cross-sectional return and short-run sentiment positively varies with the cross-sectional return. Consistent with these predictions, we find a negative relationship between the long-run sentiment component and subsequent stock returns and positive association between the short-run sentiment component and contemporaneous stock returns.
Author: Xu Guo
Author: Xu Guo
Author: Jennie Bai
Author: Kee H. Chung
Author: Gi H. Kim
Author: Jennie Bai
Author: Himanshu Verma
Author: Söhnke M. Bartram
Author: Abhay Abhyankar
Author: Wenjie Ding
Author: Walter Braddock Hickman