Intermediate-term Earthquake Prediction PDF Download

Author: W.D. Stuart
Publisher: Birkhäuser
ISBN:
Category : Juvenile Nonfiction
Languages : en
Pages : 564

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Book Description
Reprint from Pure and Applied Geophysics (PAGEOPH), Volume 126 (1988), No. 2/4

Author: Susan Elizabeth Hough
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691173303
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 276

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Book Description
Why seismologists still can't predict earthquakes An earthquake can strike without warning and wreak horrific destruction and death, whether it's the catastrophic 2010 quake that took a devastating toll on the island nation of Haiti or a future great earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in California, which scientists know is inevitable. Yet despite rapid advances in earthquake science, seismologists still can’t predict when the Big One will hit. Predicting the Unpredictable explains why, exploring the fact and fiction behind the science—and pseudoscience—of earthquake prediction. Susan Hough traces the continuing quest by seismologists to forecast the time, location, and magnitude of future quakes. She brings readers into the laboratory and out into the field—describing attempts that have raised hopes only to collapse under scrutiny, as well as approaches that seem to hold future promise. She also ventures to the fringes of pseudoscience to consider ideas outside the scientific mainstream. An entertaining and accessible foray into the world of earthquake prediction, Predicting the Unpredictable illuminates the unique challenges of predicting earthquakes.

Author: Dimitar Ouzounov
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119156955
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 384

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Book Description
Pre-Earthquake signals are advanced warnings of a larger seismic event. A better understanding of these processes can help to predict the characteristics of the subsequent mainshock. Pre-Earthquake Processes: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Earthquake Prediction Studies presents the latest research on earthquake forecasting and prediction based on observations and physical modeling in China, Greece, Italy, France, Japan, Russia, Taiwan, and the United States. Volume highlights include: Describes the earthquake processes and the observed physical signals that precede them Explores the relationship between pre-earthquake activity and the characteristics of subsequent seismic events Encompasses physical, atmospheric, geochemical, and historical characteristics of pre-earthquakes Illustrates thermal infrared, seismo–ionospheric, and other satellite and ground-based pre-earthquake anomalies Applies these multidisciplinary data to earthquake forecasting and prediction Written for seismologists, geophysicists, geochemists, physical scientists, students and others, Pre-Earthquake Processes: A Multidisciplinary Approach to Earthquake Prediction Studies offers an essential resource for understanding the dynamics of pre-earthquake phenomena from an international and multidisciplinary perspective.

Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309165032
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 196

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Improved Seismic Monitoringâ€"Improved Decision-Making, describes and assesses the varied economic benefits potentially derived from modernizing and expanding seismic monitoring activities in the United States. These benefits include more effective loss avoidance regulations and strategies, improved understanding of earthquake processes, better engineering design, more effective hazard mitigation strategies, and improved emergency response and recovery. The economic principles that must be applied to determine potential benefits are reviewed and the report concludes that although there is insufficient information available at present to fully quantify all the potential benefits, the annual dollar costs for improved seismic monitoring are in the tens of millions and the potential annual dollar benefits are in the hundreds of millions.

Author: Peter T. Bobrowsky
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9789048186990
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
Few subjects have caught the attention of the entire world as much as those dealing with natural hazards. The first decade of this new millennium provides a litany of tragic examples of various hazards that turned into disasters affecting millions of individuals around the globe. The human losses (some 225,000 people) associated with the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, the economic costs (approximately 200 billion USD) of the 2011 Tohoku Japan earthquake, tsunami and reactor event, and the collective social impacts of human tragedies experienced during Hurricane Katrina in 2005 all provide repetitive reminders that we humans are temporary guests occupying a very active and angry planet. Any examples may have been cited here to stress the point that natural events on Earth may, and often do, lead to disasters and catastrophes when humans place themselves into situations of high risk. Few subjects share the true interdisciplinary dependency that characterizes the field of natural hazards. From geology and geophysics to engineering and emergency response to social psychology and economics, the study of natural hazards draws input from an impressive suite of unique and previously independent specializations. Natural hazards provide a common platform to reduce disciplinary boundaries and facilitate a beneficial synergy in the provision of timely and useful information and action on this critical subject matter. As social norms change regarding the concept of acceptable risk and human migration leads to an explosion in the number of megacities, coastal over-crowding and unmanaged habitation in precarious environments such as mountainous slopes, the vulnerability of people and their susceptibility to natural hazards increases dramatically. Coupled with the concerns of changing climates, escalating recovery costs, a growing divergence between more developed and less developed countries, the subject of natural hazards remains on the forefront of issues that affect all people, nations, and environments all the time. This treatise provides a compendium of critical, timely and very detailed information and essential facts regarding the basic attributes of natural hazards and concomitant disasters. The Encyclopedia of Natural Hazards effectively captures and integrates contributions from an international portfolio of almost 300 specialists whose range of expertise addresses over 330 topics pertinent to the field of natural hazards. Disciplinary barriers are overcome in this comprehensive treatment of the subject matter. Clear illustrations and numerous color images enhance the primary aim to communicate and educate. The inclusion of a series of unique “classic case study” events interspersed throughout the volume provides tangible examples linking concepts, issues, outcomes and solutions. These case studies illustrate different but notable recent, historic and prehistoric events that have shaped the world as we now know it. They provide excellent focal points linking the remaining terms in the volume to the primary field of study. This Encyclopedia of Natural Hazards will remain a standard reference of choice for many years.

Author: David W. Simpson
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
ISBN:
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 698

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Book Description
Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Maurice Ewing Series, Volume 4. From May 12 to May 16, 1980, eighty-eight scientists from eleven countries attended a Symposium on Earthquake Prediction at Mohonk Mountain House, Mohonk, New York. This was the third in a biennial series honoring Maurice Ewing, first director of Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory. The Symposium was one of several events that were held in 1980 to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences at Columbia University. The two earlier Ewing Symposia, on island arcs and deep sea drilling, reflected Ewing's lifelong interest in the structure and evolution of the ocean floor. In the Third Ewing Symposium we touch another area—earthquake seismology—that played an important part in Ewing's career. Work on surface waves and long-period seismology under Ewing's direction during the 1950's and 1960's, along with his exploration of the earth beneath the oceans, provided much of the framework on which current ideas on earthquake generation and plate tectonics are based.

Author: John Helding Healy
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Earthquake prediction
Languages : en
Pages : 126

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Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309065623
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 431

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The destructive force of earthquakes has stimulated human inquiry since ancient times, yet the scientific study of earthquakes is a surprisingly recent endeavor. Instrumental recordings of earthquakes were not made until the second half of the 19th century, and the primary mechanism for generating seismic waves was not identified until the beginning of the 20th century. From this recent start, a range of laboratory, field, and theoretical investigations have developed into a vigorous new discipline: the science of earthquakes. As a basic science, it provides a comprehensive understanding of earthquake behavior and related phenomena in the Earth and other terrestrial planets. As an applied science, it provides a knowledge base of great practical value for a global society whose infrastructure is built on the Earth's active crust. This book describes the growth and origins of earthquake science and identifies research and data collection efforts that will strengthen the scientific and social contributions of this exciting new discipline.

Author: Mitsuhiro Matsu'ura
Publisher: Birkhäuser
ISBN: 3034881975
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 360

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Book Description
In the last decade of the 20th century, there has been great progress in the physics of earthquake generation; that is, the introduction of laboratory-based fault constitutive laws as a basic equation governing earthquake rupture, quantitative description of tectonic loading driven by plate motion, and a microscopic approach to study fault zone processes. The fault constitutive law plays the role of an interface between microscopic processes in fault zones and macroscopic processes of a fault system, and the plate motion connects diverse crustal activities with mantle dynamics. An ambitious challenge for us is to develop realistic computer simulation models for the complete earthquake process on the basis of microphysics in fault zones and macro-dynamics in the crust-mantle system. Recent advances in high performance computer technology and numerical simulation methodology are bringing this vision within reach. The book consists of two parts and presents a cross-section of cutting-edge research in the field of computational earthquake physics. Part I includes works on microphysics of rupture and fault constitutive laws, and dynamic rupture, wave propagation and strong ground motion. Part II covers earthquake cycles, crustal deformation, plate dynamics, and seismicity change and its physical interpretation. Topics in Part II range from the 3-D simulations of earthquake generation cycles and interseismic crustal deformation associated with plate subduction to the development of new methods for analyzing geophysical and geodetical data and new simulation algorithms for large amplitude folding and mantle convection with viscoelastic/brittle lithosphere, as well as a theoretical study of accelerated seismic release on heterogeneous faults, simulation of long-range automaton models of earthquakes, and various approaches to earthquake predicition based on underlying physical and/or statistical models for seismicity change.

Author: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309058376
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 322

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