Interest Rate Term Premiums and the Failure of the Speculative Efficiency Hypothesis PDF Download
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Author: Carol Lee Osler Publisher: ISBN: Category : Foreign exchange Languages : en Pages : 48
Book Description
This paper develops a new parity condition for international financial markets which relates differences between the forward exchange rate and the expected future exchange rate to interest rate term premiums. It begins with the general proposition that VIP cannot hold for all maturity horizons if interest rate term premiums are imperfectly correlated across countries and expectations are rational. The conditions under which VIP could hold for multiple horizons, under these two assumptions, are found to be very restrictive. It is argued that if VIP holds at all under these circumstances, it is only likely to hold at a very short time horizon. Finally, it is shown that under these assumptions, if VIP holds at the shortest time horizon then the difference between forward exchange rates and expected future spot rates at all other horizons will be the difference in expected term premiums at each maturity.
Author: Carol Lee Osler Publisher: ISBN: Category : Foreign exchange Languages : en Pages : 48
Book Description
This paper develops a new parity condition for international financial markets which relates differences between the forward exchange rate and the expected future exchange rate to interest rate term premiums. It begins with the general proposition that VIP cannot hold for all maturity horizons if interest rate term premiums are imperfectly correlated across countries and expectations are rational. The conditions under which VIP could hold for multiple horizons, under these two assumptions, are found to be very restrictive. It is argued that if VIP holds at all under these circumstances, it is only likely to hold at a very short time horizon. Finally, it is shown that under these assumptions, if VIP holds at the shortest time horizon then the difference between forward exchange rates and expected future spot rates at all other horizons will be the difference in expected term premiums at each maturity.
Author: John Maynard Keynes Publisher: Atlantic Publishers & Dist ISBN: 9788126905911 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 410
Book Description
John Maynard Keynes is the great British economist of the twentieth century whose hugely influential work The General Theory of Employment, Interest and * is undoubtedly the century's most important book on economics--strongly influencing economic theory and practice, particularly with regard to the role of government in stimulating and regulating a nation's economic life. Keynes's work has undergone significant revaluation in recent years, and "Keynesian" views which have been widely defended for so long are now perceived as at odds with Keynes's own thinking. Recent scholarship and research has demonstrated considerable rivalry and controversy concerning the proper interpretation of Keynes's works, such that recourse to the original text is all the more important. Although considered by a few critics that the sentence structures of the book are quite incomprehensible and almost unbearable to read, the book is an essential reading for all those who desire a basic education in economics. The key to understanding Keynes is the notion that at particular times in the business cycle, an economy can become over-productive (or under-consumptive) and thus, a vicious spiral is begun that results in massive layoffs and cuts in production as businesses attempt to equilibrate aggregate supply and demand. Thus, full employment is only one of many or multiple macro equilibria. If an economy reaches an underemployment equilibrium, something is necessary to boost or stimulate demand to produce full employment. This something could be business investment but because of the logic and individualist nature of investment decisions, it is unlikely to rapidly restore full employment. Keynes logically seizes upon the public budget and government expenditures as the quickest way to restore full employment. Borrowing the * to finance the deficit from private households and businesses is a quick, direct way to restore full employment while at the same time, redirecting or siphoning
Author: Robert E. Baldwin Publisher: ISBN: Category : Capital Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
Standard trade theory views the capital stock as an endowment. However, trade policy can affect a country's steady-state capital stock. By ignoring the endogeneity of capital, standard analysis is incomplete and can be misleading. For instance, when capital in endogenous, the Stolper-Samuelson theorem incorrectly predicts the long-run impact of a tariff n factor rewards in a 2-by-2 trade model. Moreover, the output effects of a trade policy can be greatly amplified by its indirect effect on the steady-state capital stock. Since this indirect effect may take a very long time to be fully realized, trade policy can have a long-lasting effect on growth. Ricardo first studied this link between trade and steady-state factor supplies.
Author: Roger E. A. Farmer Publisher: ISBN: Category : Interest rates Languages : en Pages : 62
Book Description
This paper presents empirical evidence from U.S. data of a structurally stable aggregate supply relationship between real and nominal rates of interest and the rate of unemployment. The paper reviews theories of contracts that are based on the twin assumptions of asymmetric information and limited collateral and it argues that these theories (referred to as A.I.L. theories) provide a strong theoretical foundation for a contract-based theory of aggregate supply. It is suggested that the original Phillips curve estimates should be reinterpreted in the light of A.I.L. theories which represent alternatives to the Phelps-Friedman interpretation of the Phillips relationship.
Author: Alan S. Blinder Publisher: ISBN: Category : Wage surveys Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
A small interview survey was undertaken to see how actual wage-setters would react to the central. ideas of several economic theories of wage stickiness. Wage cuts were surprisingly prevalent in recent years, despite the booming economy. The strongest finding was that managers believe that perceptions of fairness play a major motivational role in labor markets; and that a "fair" wage policy is a good deal more complicated than simply not cutting wages. We also found substantial evidence for money illusion and against the adverse-selection version of the efficiency wage model.
Author: Robert A. Taggart Publisher: ISBN: Category : Capital Languages : en Pages : 52
Book Description
This paper examines three valuation methods, each of which should lead to the same value for a given asset. These are the Adjusted Present Value, Adjusted Discount Rate and Flows to Equity methods. To achieve identical valuations, however, the different methods must be implemented with cost of capital expressions that embody a consistent set of assumptions about (1) the tax regime and (2) the time pattern and riskiness of debt tax shields. Valuation and cost of capital expressions that have been proposed in the literature are grouped and contrasted according to these assumptions. It is also shown that the familiar weighted average cost of capital can be consistent with any such set of assumptions, as long as the correct expression is used to estimate the relationship between the levered and unlevered cost of equity.
Author: Steven Shavell Publisher: ISBN: Category : Criminal behavior, Prediction of Languages : en Pages : 42
Book Description
The theory of deterrence has been concerned primarily with situations in which individuals consider whether to commit a single harmful act (whether to discharge a pollutant into a lake, whether to steal a car) rather than with situations in which individuals decide which of several harmful acts to commit (whether to discharge one pollutant or another pollutant into a lake, whether to engage in car theft or in burglary). In the latter situations, the threat of sanctions plays a role in addition to the usual one of deterring individuals from committing harmful acts: it influences which harmful acts undeterred individuals choose to commit (it accomplishes "marginal deterrence"). It is shown in the present note that sanctions may increase more with harm when individuals choose among harmful acts than when individuals choose only whether to commit single harmful acts. The reason is that a higher gradation of sanctions encourages the undeterred to commit less harmful acts. The assumption necessary for this conclusion is that probabilities of apprehension for different acts are equal, being determined by a general level of enforcement effort. If enforcement effort is specific to the act, the conclusion does not hold; optimal sanctions for different acts are then equal to each other.
Author: John B. Taylor Publisher: ISBN: Category : Rational expectations (Economic theory) Languages : en Pages : 68
Book Description
The purpose of this paper is to report on a comparison of several alternative numerical solution techniques for nonlinear rational expectations models. The comparison was made by asking individual researchers to apply their different solution techniques to a simple representative agent, optimal, stochastic growth model. Decision rules as well as simulated time series are compared. The differences among the methods turned out to be quite substantial for certain aspects of the growth model. Therefore, researchers might want to be careful not to rely blindly on the results of any chosen numerical solution method in applied work.
Author: Carol Lee Osler
Author: Carol Lee Osler
Author: John Maynard Keynes
Author: 
Author: Robert E. Baldwin
Author: Roger E. A. Farmer
Author: Alan S. Blinder
Author: National Bureau of Economic Research
Author: Robert A. Taggart
Author: Steven Shavell
Author: John B. Taylor