Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309464250 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 199
Book Description
Our ability to observe and forecast severe weather events has improved markedly over the past few decades. Forecasts of snow and ice storms, hurricanes and storm surge, extreme heat, and other severe weather events are made with greater accuracy, geographic specificity, and lead time to allow people and communities to take appropriate protective measures. Yet hazardous weather continues to cause loss of life and result in other preventable social costs. There is growing recognition that a host of social and behavioral factors affect how we prepare for, observe, predict, respond to, and are impacted by weather hazards. For example, an individual's response to a severe weather event may depend on their understanding of the forecast, prior experience with severe weather, concerns about their other family members or property, their capacity to take the recommended protective actions, and numerous other factors. Indeed, it is these factors that can determine whether or not a potential hazard becomes an actual disaster. Thus, it is essential to bring to bear expertise in the social and behavioral sciences (SBS)â€"including disciplines such as anthropology, communication, demography, economics, geography, political science, psychology, and sociologyâ€"to understand how people's knowledge, experiences, perceptions, and attitudes shape their responses to weather risks and to understand how human cognitive and social dynamics affect the forecast process itself. Integrating Social and Behavioral Sciences Within the Weather Enterprise explores and provides guidance on the challenges of integrating social and behavioral sciences within the weather enterprise. It assesses current SBS activities, describes the potential value of improved integration of SBS and barriers that impede this integration, develops a research agenda, and identifies infrastructural and institutional arrangements for successfully pursuing SBS-weather research and the transfer of relevant findings to operational settings.
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (U.S.): Committee on Advancing Social and Behavioral Research and Application Within the Weather Enterprise Publisher: ISBN: 9780309464239 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 182
Book Description
How production and dissemination of weather forecasts weaves through and interacts with our cultural values and behavioral norms, with numerous sectors of our economy (e.g., agriculture, commerce, energy, and water management), with a wide array of public policies. The Committee was charged to offer guidance to government agencies and other institutions in the weather enterprise, on strategies for effectively integrating social and behavorial science knowledge and it application into meteorology, weather forecasting, and hazard preparedness.
Author: National Research Council Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309163420 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 116
Book Description
The intelligence community (IC) plays an essential role in the national security of the United States. Decision makers rely on IC analyses and predictions to reduce uncertainty and to provide warnings about everything from international diplomatic relations to overseas conflicts. In today's complex and rapidly changing world, it is more important than ever that analytic products be accurate and timely. Recognizing that need, the IC has been actively seeking ways to improve its performance and expand its capabilities. In 2008, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) asked the National Research Council (NRC) to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the U.S. intelligence community. In Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow: Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the NRC offers the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) recommendations to address many of the IC's challenges. Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow asserts that one of the most important things that the IC can learn from the behavioral and social sciences is how to characterize and evaluate its analytic assumptions, methods, technologies, and management practices. Behavioral and social scientific knowledge can help the IC to understand and improve all phases of the analytic cycle: how to recruit, select, train, and motivate analysts; how to master and deploy the most suitable analytic methods; how to organize the day-to-day work of analysts, as individuals and teams; and how to communicate with its customers. The report makes five broad recommendations which offer practical ways to apply the behavioral and social sciences, which will bring the IC substantial immediate and longer-term benefits with modest costs and minimal disruption.
Author: National Research Council Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309180538 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 124
Book Description
Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Author: ENGINEERING NATIONAL ACADEMIES OF SCIENCES (AND M.) Publisher: ISBN: 9780309670333 Category : Languages : en Pages : 26
Book Description
"The Digest Version of A Decadal Survey of the Social and Behavioral Sciences: A Research Agenda for Advancing Intelligence Analysis summarizes the most important ideas from the full report for the Intelligence Community to consider in the coming decade. This volume provides an overview of the primary opportunities that research in the social and behavioral sciences offers for strengthening national security, specifically the work of the intelligence analyst, and the conclusions and recommendations of the Committee on a Decadal Survey of Social and Behavioral Sciences for Applications to National Survey. This digest version is a succinct roadmap to the critical contribution researchers from these fields make to national security"--Publisher's description
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309388805 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 351
Book Description
As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.
Author: National Research Council Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309160324 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 174
Book Description
The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, understanding the need for policy makers at the national level to entrain the behavioral and social sciences in addressing the challenges of global climate change, called on the National Research Council to organize two workshops to showcase some of the decision-relevant contributions that these sciences have already made and can advance with future efforts. The workshops focused on two broad areas: (1) mitigation (behavioral elements of a strategy to reduce the net future human influence on climate) and (2) adaptation (behavioral and social determinants of societal capacity to minimize the damage from climate changes that are not avoided). Facilitating Climate Change Responses documents the information presented in the workshop presentations and discussions. This material illustrates some of the ways the behavioral and social sciences can contribute to the new era of climate research.
Author: National Research Council Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309145880 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 526
Book Description
Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for-and in many cases is already affecting-a broad range of human and natural systems. The compelling case for these conclusions is provided in Advancing the Science of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested suite of studies known as America's Climate Choices. While noting that there is always more to learn and that the scientific process is never closed, the book shows that hypotheses about climate change are supported by multiple lines of evidence and have stood firm in the face of serious debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. As decision makers respond to these risks, the nation's scientific enterprise can contribute through research that improves understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change and also is useful to decision makers at the local, regional, national, and international levels. The book identifies decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from agriculture to transportation, to identify decisions being made in response to climate change. Advancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a single federal entity or program to coordinate a national, multidisciplinary research effort aimed at improving both understanding and responses to climate change. Seven cross-cutting research themes are identified to support this scientific enterprise. In addition, leaders of federal climate research should redouble efforts to deploy a comprehensive climate observing system, improve climate models and other analytical tools, invest in human capital, and improve linkages between research and decisions by forming partnerships with action-oriented programs.
Author: Anol Bhattacherjee Publisher: CreateSpace ISBN: 9781475146127 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 156
Book Description
This book is designed to introduce doctoral and graduate students to the process of conducting scientific research in the social sciences, business, education, public health, and related disciplines. It is a one-stop, comprehensive, and compact source for foundational concepts in behavioral research, and can serve as a stand-alone text or as a supplement to research readings in any doctoral seminar or research methods class. This book is currently used as a research text at universities on six continents and will shortly be available in nine different languages.
Author: Riccardo Boero Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118657306 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 198
Book Description
This book is organized in two parts: the first part introduces the reader to all the concepts, tools and references that are required to start conducting research in behavioral computational social science. The methodological reasons for integrating the two approaches are also presented from the individual and separated viewpoints of the two approaches.The second part of the book, presents all the advanced methodological and technical aspects that are relevant for the proposed integration. Several contributions which effectively merge the computational and the behavioral approaches are presented and discussed throughout
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (U.S.): Committee on Advancing Social and Behavioral Research and Application Within the Weather Enterprise
Author: National Research Council
Author: National Research Council
Author: ENGINEERING NATIONAL ACADEMIES OF SCIENCES (AND M.)
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Author: National Research Council
Author: National Research Council
Author: Anol Bhattacherjee
Author: Riccardo Boero